2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Senegal_Achieving_High_and_Inclusive_Growth_While_Preserving_Fiscal_Sustainability_39页_2mb

Summary of "Senegal: Achieving High and Inclusive Growth While Preserving Fiscal Sustainability"

Core Content

This report evaluates Senegal's economic growth, inclusiveness, and fiscal sustainability challenges, offering insights into the structural and policy-related factors that influence these areas. The goal is to support sustainable and inclusive growth while maintaining fiscal stability.

Main Points

Growth Performance and Outlook

• Past Growth: Senegal experienced relatively strong growth from 1995–2005 (4.5% average), which coincided with a significant drop in poverty. However, growth slowed after 2006, averaging 3.3% due to a series of exogenous shocks, such as global food and fuel price increases, the financial crisis, and a crisis in the electricity sector.
• Current Growth: The medium-term growth outlook assumes a return to positive total factor productivity (TFP) growth, projecting growth rates of 3.7% in 2012, 4.3% in 2013, and an average of 5% per year from 2014–2017.
• Sectoral Contributions: The tertiary sector has driven most of the growth, especially transport and telecommunications. The primary sector (agriculture) has seen a decline in its share of GDP, while the secondary sector has remained relatively stable.
• Factor Intensity: Growth has been primarily driven by factor accumulation, with modest TFP growth during the 1995–2005 period. TFP has declined again since 2006, suggesting inefficiencies in public and private investment.

Growth Inclusiveness

• Poverty Trends: Poverty has declined over the past two decades, from 68% in 1994–95 to 48% in 2005–06. However, the rate of poverty reduction has slowed in recent years, with only a modest decline between 2006 and 2011.
• Regional Disparities: Rural areas have higher poverty rates than urban areas, with poverty incidence at 57% compared to 33% in cities.
• Inequality Trends: Growth incidence curves indicate that inequality increased from 2001 to 2005, with the middle class improving while the poorest and richest deciles became relatively poorer. Inequality has remained stable between 2005 and 2011, though regional differences may exist.
• Policy Role: Public policies play a crucial role in promoting inclusive growth. Better-targeted policies and improved efficiency in public spending are essential for reducing poverty and inequality.

Fiscal Sustainability Challenges

• Fiscal Deficits: Fiscal deficits have increased, reaching nearly 7% of GDP in 2011, compared to below 4% in 2007. This has reduced fiscal space and raised concerns about debt sustainability.
• Debt Ratios: Public debt-to-GDP ratios have increased continuously, limiting the government's ability to implement countercyclical policies.
• Electricity Subsidies: Electricity subsidies are a major fiscal burden, with high quasi-fiscal costs. These subsidies are not well-targeted, and only a limited share benefits the poor. With high international oil prices, subsidies are expected to remain high until more cost-effective technologies are adopted.
• Public Investment: Increasing public investment can boost growth, but it must be done efficiently and with appropriate financing to ensure fiscal sustainability. The quality of investment and its terms are crucial.

Key Reforms and Recommendations

• Infrastructure Development: Improving energy and transport infrastructure is critical for growth. Large projects such as the Blaise Diagne International Airport and the Diamniadio Economic Special Integrated Zone are expected to address these issues.
• Agricultural Reforms: Enhancing agricultural productivity through modernization and better access to land and credit is necessary to increase growth and reduce poverty.
• Tourism Development: Expanding the tourism sector, particularly business and cultural tourism, requires improving the offer and marketing of Senegal as a destination.
• Business Climate: Efforts to improve the business climate, including reducing bureaucratic hurdles, are needed to support private sector development.
• Public Spending Efficiency: There is a need for more efficient public spending, particularly in the social sectors, to ensure that resources reach the most vulnerable populations.
• Tax System Design: A well-designed tax system can contribute to inclusive growth and fiscal sustainability.

Conclusion

Senegal's growth has been uneven, and while it has made progress in reducing poverty, the pace has slowed. To achieve high and inclusive growth while preserving fiscal sustainability, the country must address structural issues, improve public policy targeting, and enhance the efficiency of public spending. These efforts will help ensure that growth benefits all segments of the population and that the fiscal space remains sufficient to support development needs.

References

• The report draws on data from the World Bank and IMF staff estimates.
• It references the Doing Business report, PovcalNet, and various sectoral analyses.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Real GDP Growth in Senegal, 1990–2011.

• Figure 2: Number of Tourist Arrivals, 2003 and 2006.

• Figure 3: Average Receipts per Tourist Arrival, 2003 and 2006.

• Figure 4: Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Losses, 1990–2006.

• Figure 5: Cost of Registering Property.

• Figure 6: Change in Poverty Rate.

• Figure 7: Sensitivity of Poverty Reduction to Growth in the WAEMU.

• Figure 8: Growth in Real Household Expenditure by Decile per Capita.

• Figure 9: Health and Education Expenditure in Senegal, 2006–10.

• Table 1: Senegal's Growth Performances vs. Comparators, 1990–2011.

• Table 2: Sectoral Contributions to GDP, 1991–2011.

• Table 3: Consumption, Investment, and National Savings, 1991–2011.

• Table 4: Growth Rate Accounting, 1991–2011.

• Table 5: Growth Rate Accounting, 2012–17.

• Table 6: Cereal Average Yield, 1994–2008.