20140521-交银国际证券-Bocom_Energy_Weekly_11页_443kb

报告摘要

Russia-China Gas Deal: Talks are ongoing between Russia and China regarding potential gas imports, with an initial volume of 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, equivalent to 23% of China's current consumption and 16% of Gazprom's current exports. The volume could increase to 61bcm.
PetroChina Leadership Change: PetroChina's vice president and chief of overseas operations, Bo Qiliang, has left his position, facing a corruption investigation. This follows a significant corruption probe in China.
Shale Gas Subsidies in Chongqing: The Chongqing government applied for Rmb57.1 million in shale gas subsidies under the Rmb0.40/cu.m policy introduced in November 2012. Sinopec operates 14 wells, producing 134.74 million cubic meters (mcu.m) in 2013, while PetroChina, with Shell China, operates 1 well producing 8mcu.m in 2013.

Company	Code	1-Day %	1-Week %	1-Month %	3-Month %	1-Year %	YTD %
PetroChina	857 HK	9.28	0.0	0.4	5.7	13.9	-6.5
Sinopec	386 HK	6.98	0.0	-1.0	-0.3	5.4	5.4
CNOOC	883 HK	13.24	-0.3	1.1	2.8	7.3	-8.6

Company	Code	1-Day %	1-Week %	1-Month %	3-Month %	1-Year %	YTD %
Hong Kong China Gas	3 HK	18.50	1.1	2.9	3.7	16.4	-14.7
ENN Energy	2688 HK	54.60	-0.7	4.2	-4.1	5.2	23.3
China Resource Gas	1193 HK	24.15	1.5	4.8	2.1	-7.1	18.7
Tianlun Gas	1600 HK	7.97	0.6	1.0	12.3	12.1	17.0

Company	Code	1-Day %	1-Week %	1-Month %	3-Month %	1-Year %	YTD %
COSL	2883 HK	18.54	1.9	2.0	0.7	-12.3	10.9
Hilong	1623 HK	4.16	2.2	-0.2	7.8	-34.9	8.1

Commodity	Index	Price	1-Day %	1-Week %	1-Month %	3-Month %	1-Year %
Brent	EUCRBREN Index	111.0	0.3	2.0	1.2	0.5	6.2
WTI	USCRWTIC Index	102.6	0.6	2.0	-1.6	-0.7	6.9
Dubai	PGCRDUBA Index	105.9	-0.6	1.4	0.1	-0.8	4.5
Cinta	APCRCNTA Index	107.8	1.0	-0.8	-1.7	0.1	5.8
Henry Hub	NGUSHHUB Index	4.5	1.9	0.3	-1.1	-24.3	16.0

Pollution Control in China: The Chinese government is implementing pollution control policies, aiming to increase the share of non-fossil fuels and natural gas in the energy mix. By 2015, non-fossil fuels should account for more than 11.4%, while natural gas should account for 7%. By 2017, these figures are expected to rise to 13% and 9%, respectively, with a reduction in coal usage to below 65%.
IEA Oil Demand Forecast: The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil demand forecast to 1.32 million barrels per day (mb/d) due to higher first-quarter data. OPEC production rebounded by 405 kb/d in April, reaching 29.90 mb/d, and the IEA expects OPEC to increase production by nearly 1 million b/d in the third quarter to meet rising demand.
Libya's Impact on Brent Crude: Concerns over Libya's oil output, which dropped to 200,000 b/d from 300,000 b/d, caused a rise in Brent crude prices.

China Oil Majors: Average 3-month return is 107.0, with an average P/E ratio of 8.1 and EV/Ebitda of 4.7.
India Oil Companies: Average 3-month return is 34.5, with an average P/E ratio of 10.0 and EV/Ebitda of 6.2.
Thailand Oil Companies: Average 3-month return is 38.9, with an average P/E ratio of 12.2 and EV/Ebitda of 2.5.
Australia Oil Companies: Average 3-month return is 50.2, with an average P/E ratio of 11.6 and EV/Ebitda of 4.9.

Oil Majors: Average 3-month return is 224,962, with an average P/E ratio of 11.4 and EV/Ebitda of 4.9.
Other Integrated Oil Companies: Average 3-month return is 71,281, with an average P/E ratio of 12.6 and EV/Ebitda of 4.5.

Average Performance: Average 3-month return is 6,460, with an average P/E ratio of 30.3 and EV/Ebitda of 18.8.
China IPPs: Average 3-month return is 6,372, with an average P/E ratio of 7.1 and EV/Ebitda of 7.9.
Alternative Energy - Wind: Average 3-month return is 3,151, with an average P/E ratio of 14.4 and EV/Ebitda of 8.9.
Alternative Energy - Solar: Average 3-month return is 2,718, with an average P/E ratio of 8.6 and EV/Ebitda of 6.4.