20140806-交银国际证券-Bocom_Energy_Weekly_11页_446kb

报告摘要

Bocom Energy Weekly Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of recent developments in the energy sector, including company news, share price performance, crude oil prices, and key financial metrics for various energy-related companies in China and globally.

Main Points

Sector News

Fosun International acquired ROC Oil for A$474 million, representing a 10% premium over ROC's closing price last Friday and a 23% premium over its share price the day before the takeover proposal was announced. This acquisition will expand Fosun's energy exposure through offshore assets in the Bohai Bay and South China Sea, and it will collaborate with CNOOC in these areas.
CNOOC announced the start of production from three oilfields in the South China Sea: Panyu 10-2, Panyu 10-5, and Panyu 10-8. The project currently has four wells producing approximately 9,000 barrels per day, with an expected peak production of 13,000 barrels per day by 2015.
Tianlun Gas reported a positive profit alert for the first half of 2014, driven by increased gas sales volume and pipeline construction operations.
Anton Oil issued a profit warning for 1H 2014, citing a slowdown in revenue growth, downward pricing pressure, project delays, and increased costs as key factors.

Share Price Performance & Commodities

PetroChina (857 HK): Last price = 10.12, 1-day change = 0.2%, 1-week change = -3.1%, 1-month change = 3.2%, 3-month change = 15.4%, 1-year change = 10.8%, YTD change = 19.1%.
Sinopec (386 HK): Last price = 7.44, 1-day change = -1.6%, 1-week change = -2.1%, 1-month change = 1.5%, 3-month change = 10.1%, 1-year change = 28.3%, YTD change = 17.5%.
CNOOC (883 HK): Last price = 14.04, 1-day change = -0.4%, 1-week change = 1.6%, 1-month change = 2.6%, 3-month change = 11.3%, 1-year change = -1.1%, YTD change = -2.6%.
Hong Kong China Gas (3 HK): Last price = 17.06, 1-day change = 0.2%, 1-week change = 1.2%, 1-month change = 0.8%, 3-month change = 6.9%, 1-year change = -6.4%, YTD change = 5.5%.
ENN Energy (2688 HK): Last price = 56.10, 1-day change = 0.0%, 1-week change = 0.8%, 1-month change = 0.9%, 3-month change = 5.1%, 1-year change = 36.7%, YTD change = -2.2%.
China Resource Gas (1193 HK): Last price = 24.90, 1-day change = 0.0%, 1-week change = 0.8%, 1-month change = 2.5%, 3-month change = 8.3%, 1-year change = 28.9%, YTD change = -7.8%.
Tianlun Gas (1600 HK): Last price = 9.26, 1-day change = 0.1%, 1-week change = -2.5%, 1-month change = -0.9%, 3-month change = 22.3%, 1-year change = 36.8%, YTD change = 25.8%.
Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK): Last price = 2.48, 1-day change = 0.8%, 1-week change = 1.6%, 1-month change = 12.7%, 3-month change = 33.3%, 1-year change = 51.8%, YTD change = 11.2%.
COSL (2883 HK): Last price = 19.24, 1-day change = -0.8%, 1-week change = -1.1%, 1-month change = -1.0%, 3-month change = 4.7%, 1-year change = 7.5%, YTD change = -20.0%.
Hilong (1623 HK): Last price = 4.40, 1-day change = -0.2%, 1-week change = 5.8%, 1-month change = 2.1%, 3-month change = 10.0%, 1-year change = -7.0%, YTD change = -33.7%.
Crude Oil Prices:
- Brent: $104.4
- WTI: $98.3
- Dubai: $103.8
- Cinta: $101.5
- Henry Hub: $3.8
HSI (Hang Seng Index): 24,648

Energy Industry Focus

Honghua (196 HK) signed a $56 million sales agreement with Shanghai Shipyard to sell two deep-water drilling ships, expected to be delivered by the end of 2015.
PetroKing (2178 HK) reported a boost in Q2 operations, providing production enhancement services at 40 wells in China and completing three wells in Venezuela with multi-stage fracturing.
Anton Oil was awarded a $50 million service contract in Iraq for a three-year drilling project, with an option for an additional year.
The EIA reported that May 2014 saw a record 69.9 Bcf/day of natural gas production in the US, with consumption at 58.2 Bcf/day, up 3.4% YoY.
The NDRC delayed the oil price adjustment for this Monday, with the next adjustment expected on August 18.

Key Financial Metrics (Figure 5)

PetroChina: P/E (14E) = 11.3, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 5.6, P/BV (14E) = 1.1, Yield = 4.0%, Net debt/equity = 23, ROE (14E) = 10.5%.
Sinopec: P/E (14E) = 7.9, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 4.6, P/BV (14E) = 0.9, Yield = 3.5%, Net debt/equity = 25, ROE (14E) = 14.0%.
CNOOC: P/E (14E) = 9.4, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 4.4, P/BV (14E) = 1.2, Yield = 2.8%, Net debt/equity = 14.5, ROE (14E) = 14.5%.
COSL: P/E (14E) = 9.6, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 8.1, P/BV (14E) = 1.7, Yield = 2.1%, Net debt/equity = 47, ROE (14E) = 18.7%.
Average for China oil companies: P/E = 8.6, EV/Ebitda = 4.8, P/BV = 2.9, Yield = 3.4%, Net debt/equity = 48, ROE = 14.0%.

Energy Industry Comparables

China Gas Utilities:
- Hong Kong China Gas (3 HK): P/E (14E) = 19.6, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 20.6, P/BV (14E) = 2.7, Yield = 2.1%, Net debt/equity = 39, ROE (14E) = 14.1%.
- ENN Energy (2688 HK): P/E (14E) = 23.7, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 12.9, P/BV (14E) = 3.6, Yield = 1.2%, Net debt/equity = 17.6, ROE (14E) = 25.3%.
- China Resource Gas (1193 HK): P/E (14E) = 19.5, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 12.7, P/BV (14E) = 2.7, Yield = 1.0%, Net debt/equity = -1.6, ROE (14E) = 14.7%.
- Tianlun Gas (1600 HK): P/E (14E) = 18.1, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 11.3, P/BV (14E) = 4.1, Yield = 0.0%, Net debt/equity = 44.6, ROE (14E) = 25.3%.
China IPPs:
- Huaneng: P/E (14E) = 8.1, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 5.9, P/BV (14E) = 1.4, Yield = 6.3%, Net debt/equity = 190, ROE (14E) = 18.1%.
- CR Power: P/E (14E) = 9.0, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 7.5, P/BV (14E) = 1.4, Yield = 3.6%, Net debt/equity = 105, ROE (14E) = 16.9%.
- Datang Power: P/E (14E) = 9.5, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 8.9, P/BV (14E) = 0.9, Yield = 4.2%, Net debt/equity = 294, ROE (14E) = 9.4%.
- Huadian: P/E (14E) = 6.8, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 6.2, P/BV (14E) = 1.1, Yield = 5.4%, Net debt/equity = 316, ROE (14E) = 17.6%.
- China Power International: P/E (14E) = 6.7, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 8.3, P/BV (14E) = 0.8, Yield = 6.0%, Net debt/equity = 188, ROE (14E) = 12.6%.
- Average for China IPPs: P/E = 8.0, EV/Ebitda = 7.7, P/BV = 1.1, Yield = 4.8%, Net debt/equity = 226, ROE = 14.1%.
Alternative Energy - Wind:
- China Longyuan: P/E (14E) = 16.4, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 9.0, P/BV (14E) = 1.5, Yield = 1.2%, Net debt/equity = 155, ROE (14E) = 9.3%.
- Huaneng Renewable: P/E (14E) = 15.5, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 8.6, P/BV (14E) = 1.3, Yield = 1.3%, Net debt/equity = 249, ROE (14E) = 8.4%.
- Datang Renewable: P/E (14E) = 20.8, EV/Ebitda (14E) = 9.8, P/BV (14E) = 0.7, Yield = 0.7%, Net debt/equity = 335, ROE (14E) = 2.9%.
- China Ruifeng: P/E (14E) = n.a., EV/Ebitda (14E) = n.a., P/BV (14E) = n.a., Yield = n.a., Net debt/equity = n.a., ROE (14E) = n.a.
- Average for wind energy: P/E = 17.6, EV/Ebitda = 9.1, P/BV = 1.2, Yield = 1.1%, Net debt/equity = 246, ROE = 6.9%.
Alternative Energy - Solar:
- GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK): P/E (14E) = n.a., EV/Ebitda (14E) = 10.4, P/BV (14E) = 2.2, Yield = 0.6%, Net debt/equity = 179.4, ROE (14E) = 11.2%.
- Trina Solar (TSL US): P/E (14E) = n.a., EV/Ebitda (14E) = 5.0, P/BV (14E) = 0.8, Yield = 0.0%, Net debt/equity = 119.5, ROE (14E) = 8.2%.
- Suntech Power (STP US): P/E (14E) = n.a., EV/Ebitda (14E) = n.a., P/BV (14E) = n.a., Yield = n.a., Net debt/equity = n.a., ROE (14E) = n.a.
- Average for solar energy: P/E = n.a., EV/Ebitda = 7.7, P/BV = 1.5, Yield = 0.3%, Net debt/equity = 141.0, ROE = 9.7%.