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Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2021 Summary

Core Content

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released the Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2021, highlighting a significant rebound in global energy-related CO2 emissions to a record high of 36.3 gigatonnes (Gt). This marks the largest annual increase in CO2 emissions since 1900, reversing the sharp decline caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, which had reduced emissions by 5.1%.

The recovery was driven by unprecedented economic stimulus, vaccine roll-outs, and economic rebound, with global GDP growth reaching 5.9% in 2021. This strong economic recovery led to a 6% increase in CO2 emissions, the strongest coupling between emissions and GDP growth since 2010.

Main Points

Global CO2 Emissions Rebound

• 2021 emissions: 36.3 Gt, the highest ever recorded.
• Increase from 2020: 6%, reversing the pandemic-induced drop of 5.1%.
• Increase from 2019: 180 Mt, showing that emissions surpassed pre-pandemic levels.

Sectoral Emissions

• Electricity and heat production: The largest contributor to the emissions increase, with a rise of over 900 Mt (46% of the global increase).
• Coal emissions: Reached an all-time high of 15.3 Gt, up by 200 Mt from 2018.
• Natural gas emissions: Rose above 2019 levels to 7.5 Gt.
• Oil emissions: Remained 8% below pre-pandemic levels due to limited transport recovery.
• Transport sector: Still below 2019 levels, with aviation emissions at 60% of pre-pandemic levels.

Renewable Energy Growth

• Renewable power generation: Reached a record 8,000 TWh, up by 500 TWh from 2020.
• Wind and solar PV: Increased by 270 TWh and 170 TWh, respectively.
• Nuclear power: Expanded by 100 TWh.
• Renewables offset emissions: Without this growth, CO2 emissions would have increased by 220 Mt.

Regional and Country Analysis

• China: The main driver of the global emissions rebound, with emissions rising by 750 Mt between 2019 and 2021.
• China's electricity demand: Grew by 10% in 2021, outpacing GDP growth (8.4%).
• Advanced economies: Emissions rebounded less sharply than GDP, indicating a more sustainable path.
• United States and EU: Emissions were 4% and 2.4% lower than 2019, respectively.
• India: Emissions rose by 80 Mt above 2019 levels, led by coal use.

Sustainable Recovery Efforts

• Sustainable investments: USD 470 billion was allocated for sustainable measures by October 2021.
• Annual investment potential: Around USD 400 billion could be mobilised in the 2021-2023 period.
• Gap with IEA's Sustainable Recovery Plan: This is still 40% short of the required investment for a net-zero pathway by 2050.

Per Capita Emissions

• China's per capita emissions: Exceeded the average of advanced economies at 8.4 tonnes.
• Emissions intensity: China's GDP emissions intensity fell to 0.45 tonnes of CO2 per USD 1,000, but remains the highest among major economies due to coal dominance (60%) and high industrial share (39%).

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Total greenhouse gas emissions: Reached 40.8 Gt of CO2eq, the highest ever.
• Energy-related CO2: Accounted for 89% of total energy sector GHG emissions.
• Methane and nitrous oxide: Represented 10% and 0.7%, respectively, of total energy GHG emissions.
• Methane emissions: Rose by 5%, but remained below 2019 levels.

Key Information

• CO2 emissions from coal increased by 200 Mt to 15.3 Gt, surpassing the previous peak in 2014.
• Natural gas prices led to gas-to-coal switching, increasing emissions by over 100 Mt.
• China's energy demand was the most significant factor in the global rebound, with coal filling 56% of the demand increase.
• Electricity demand in China reached 700 TWh higher than in 2019, equivalent to the total demand of all of Africa.
• IEA's Sustainable Recovery Plan requires 400% more investment than what has been mobilised so far.
• Advanced economies showed structural declines in emissions, with renewables, electrification, and efficiency playing key roles.

Conclusion

The Global Energy Review 2021 underscores that while the world experienced a strong economic recovery, the resulting rebound in CO2 emissions has not aligned with sustainable development goals. The continued reliance on coal, slow renewable growth in some regions, and limited transport recovery have contributed to the rise in emissions. The IEA calls for accelerated clean energy investment and decarbonisation policies to ensure that 2021's emissions rebound is a one-off and that the path to net-zero emissions by 2050 remains viable.