20140219-交银国际证券-Bocom_Energy_Weekly_12页_479kb

Bocom Energy Weekly Summary

Core Content

This week's report highlights the impact of Kazakhstan's currency devaluation on Chinese energy stocks, along with updates on the energy sector, crude oil prices, and share price performance of various energy companies. It also provides insights into global energy supply and demand forecasts and compares key financial metrics across different regions and companies.

Main Points

Kazakhstan Currency Devaluation Impact

• Devaluation Details: Kazakhstan devalued its currency by 19.3% on Feb 11, 2013, to counteract the Russian ruble's devaluation, which had dropped 15% since the start of 2013.
• Historical Context: A 21% devaluation occurred in February 2009 following the global financial crisis.
• Impact on Chinese Energy Stocks:
  • SPT Energy (1251 HK): Experienced the largest drop, with a 14% decline in one day and a 11% decline in one week. It derived 50% of its 2013 revenue from overseas and 41% of its 2012 revenue from Kazakhstan.
  • Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Suffered a 0.4% drop in one day and 0.3% in one week. 10% of its EBIT came from Kazakhstan.
  • Other Companies: Honghua (196 HK), Anton Oil (3337 HK), Hilong (1623 HK), Petroking (2178 HK), and MI Energy (1555 HK) had smaller impacts, with some showing positive performance over the week.
  • Mitigation Factors:
    1. Employee Compensation and Operating Expenses: These are in Kazakh tenge, providing a natural hedging effect.
    2. Historical Recovery: After the 2009 devaluation, EBITDA margin dropped by 5bps but recovered in the following year.

Brightoil Petroleum Acquisition

• Brightoil (933 HK) announced the acquisition of Anadarko's China offshore oil field in the Bohai area for $1.1 billion.
• Production Decline: Oil production in the Bohai area fell from 15.3 mmbbls in 2012 to 11.7 mmbbls in 2013.
• CNOOC's Role: CNOOC holds a 51% interest in both fields.

Energy Industry Focus

• EIA Short-term Energy Outlook:
  • World Petroleum Supply: Projected to increase by 1.7 million bbl/d in 2014 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2015, with most growth from non-OPEC countries.
  • OPEC Production: Expected to fall by 0.4 million bbl/d in 2014 and 0.3 million bbl/d in 2015.
  • Crude Oil Prices:
    • Brent: Projected to average $105/bbl in 2014 and $101/bbl in 2015.
    • WTI: Projected to average $93/bbl in 2014 and $90/bbl in 2015.
• China Import Data: Record high imports in January 2013 increased to 28.16 million tons, signaling potential strengthening demand from China, the world's second-largest economy and largest net oil importer.

Crude Oil Price Analysis

• Brent vs. WTI: A chart shows the price comparison between Brent and WTI.
• Oil Services Companies: A chart compares their 1-year share price performance against the HSI.
• Gas Companies: A chart compares their 1-year share price performance against the HSI.
• Global Comparables:
  • Asia: Includes Chinese companies like PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, with average metrics.
  • India: Companies like Reliance Ind, ONGC, and Cairn India.
  • Japan: Companies like Inexp and Japex.
  • Thailand: Companies like PTT and PTTEP.
  • Australia: Companies like Woodside, Origin Energy, and Santos.
  • Russia: Companies like Gazprom and TNKBP RU.
  • US Upstream: Companies like Anadarko, Apache, and EOG.
  • Canada: Companies like Suncor, Canadian Natural, and Imperial Oil.

Share Price Performance and Financial Metrics

• PetroChina (857 HK): Share price of 7.91, with a -0.4% one-day change and 1.7% one-week change.
• Sinopec (386 HK): Share price of 6, with a -1.3% one-day change and 1.7% one-week change.
• CNOOC (883 HK): Share price of 12.78, with a -0.3% one-day change and 0.8% one-week change.
• Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Share price of 13.32, with a -0.4% one-day change and -0.3% one-week change.
• ENN Energy (2688 HK): Share price of 52.05, with a -2.1% one-day change and 4.1% one-week change.
• China Resource Gas (1193 HK): Share price of 25.45, with a -0.2% one-day change and 5.6% one-week change.
• Tianlun Gas (1600 HK): Share price of 6.95, with a -1.6% one-day change and -1.3% one-week change.
• Oil Services Companies: Highlighted include COSL and Hilong.

Key Financial Metrics

Conclusion

The report underscores the impact of Kazakhstan's currency devaluation on Chinese energy stocks, particularly on oil services and companies with significant operations in the region. It also highlights the strategic acquisition by Brightoil Petroleum and provides a comprehensive overview of global energy market trends, including production forecasts and crude oil price projections. The financial metrics and performance of various companies are analyzed, offering insights into their valuations and financial health.