20141016-交银国际证券-Bocom_Energy_Weekly_11页_423kb

Bocom Energy Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This week's Bocom Energy Weekly provides an in-depth analysis of the energy sector, focusing on recent developments in oil and gas, government subsidies, energy policies, and market performance. It highlights the performance of major energy companies in China and globally, along with key trends and forecasts affecting the sector.

Main Points and Key Information

Government Subsidies and Policies

• PetroChina received Rmb1.421bn in government subsidies for the first half of 2014, with 60% of total government subsidies allocated to state-owned enterprises.
• The subsidies included the refund of import value-added tax related to natural gas imports.
• China's 13th Five-Year Energy Plan emphasizes cleanliness and efficiency, aiming to reduce coal consumption to under 62% of the primary energy mix by 2020 and increase natural gas transmission capacity to 480bn cubic meters.
• A new coal tax policy will be implemented on December 1, with coal resource tax ranging between 2% and 10%. The tax rate for natural gas and crude oil will be raised from 5% to 6%.

Crude Oil Price Movements

• Brent crude price dropped to its lowest level since 2010, with a decline of more than 20% in the second half of 2014.
• The EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average US$98/bbl in 4Q 2014 and US$102/bbl in 2015.
• The WTI discount to Brent is expected to average US$7/bbl in both 2014 and 2015, down from US$11/bbl in 2013.
• U.S. crude oil production reached an estimated 8.7 million bbl/d in September, the highest since July 1986, and is forecast to reach 9.5 million bbl/d in 2015.
• OPEC production increased in September to 30.47 million bbl/d, while world oil demand for OPEC crude is seen at 29.2 million bbl/d.

Company Updates

• CNOOC's Enping 24-2 oilfield commenced production, with 2 wells currently producing 8,000 barrels per day and expected to reach 40,000 barrels per day by 2017.
• COOEC secured a US$367mn contract with PTTEP to build four platforms and four offshore pipelines for the Zawtika phase 1B gas field in Myanmar.
• Antonoil expects overseas revenue growth in FY 2014 due to energy sector reforms and increased natural gas demand.
• Brightoil raised its gas reserves estimate at western China fields, with total 2P reserves increasing by 11.5 million boe (28.5%) and reaching 93.9 million boe.

Infrastructure and Market Trends

• Russia and China may build an additional natural gas pipeline via a western route by 2015.
• China's energy companies are experiencing mixed performance in share prices, with some showing declines and others showing growth.
• U.S. liquefied petroleum production is on the rise, with IEA predicting it could surpass Saudi Arabia by September or October.

Share Price Performance

Comparative Analysis

• Figure 1 compares Brent vs. WTI crude oil prices.
• Figure 2 shows the 1-year share price performance of the Big Three oil NOCs versus the HSI.
• Figure 3 compares the 1-year share price performance of gas companies versus the HSI.
• Figure 4 compares the 1-year share price performance of oil services companies versus the HSI.
• Figure 5 presents a comparative analysis of various global energy companies, including their price, market cap, and financial metrics.
• Figure 6 compares China utilities and alternative energy companies, focusing on financial indicators such as P/E, EV/Ebitda, and ROE.

Key Financial Metrics (Selected Companies)

Conclusion

The energy sector is experiencing a mix of challenges and opportunities, with government subsidies, policy changes, and market trends playing significant roles. The focus on cleanliness and efficiency in China's energy plan, along with the impact of OPEC production decisions, is shaping the global oil market. Meanwhile, U.S. production increases and international contracts are influencing the performance of energy companies, highlighting the dynamic nature of the sector.