20150511-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_37页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 11 May 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed summary of economic and sector updates for China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, focusing on monetary policy, corporate performance, and market outlook. It also includes key indices, top picks, and risk factors for the Chinese auto and banking sectors.

Main Points by Region

China

Economic Overview:
- Inflation: CPI rose to 1.5% yoy in April 2015, slightly above consensus. PPI fell by 4.6% yoy, worse than forecast and market expectation.
- Monetary Policy: The PBOC cut benchmark deposit and lending rates by 25bp, and raised the cap on deposit rates to 1.5x the benchmark rate. This is part of a broader monetary easing strategy to combat deflationary pressure and support the real economy.
- Interest Rate Outlook: Further rate cuts and RRR reductions are expected in 3Q15. Unconventional tools may be used to inject liquidity into the system.
- Key Indices:
  - CPI and PPI: CPI remained stable at 1.4% in April, while PPI continued to show deflationary trends.
  - CPO and Crude Oil: CPO prices showed volatility, while crude oil prices increased slightly.

Indonesia

Corporate Update:
- Mitrabahtera Segara Sejati (MBSS): 1Q15 results were volatile due to higher idle fleets. Rating maintained at SELL.

Malaysia

Corporate Update:
- Sunsuria (SSR): Positive feedback from luncheon and roadshow. Growth is expected to be tied to the success of Xiamen University.

Singapore

Sector Update:
- Land Transport: Restructuring is expected to begin.
Corporate Update:
- Wilmar International (WIL): Outlook turned more positive with improved earnings visibility. Rating upgraded to BUY.

Thailand

Corporate Results:
- Advanced Info Service (ADVANC): Results in line with expectations.
- E for L Aim (EFORL): Good results, as expected.
- PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC): Likely to report the lowest quarterly earnings for the year.
- Somboon Advance Technology (SAT): Results in line with expectations.
Corporate Update:
- Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL): 1Q15 net profit is estimated to have grown by 29.1% qoq and 22.7% yoy to Bt615.9m, driven by recovery in hotel operations and improved margins in the food business.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	18191.1	1.5	0.9	0.7	2.1
S&P 500	2116.1	1.3	0.4	0.7	2.8
FTSE 100	7046.8	2.3	1.2	-0.6	7.3
AS30	5635.4	-0.2	-2.8	-5.1	4.6
CSI 300	4558.4	2.0	-4.0	4.9	29.0
FSSTI	3452.0	0.6	-1.0	-0.6	2.6
HSCEI	14049.7	2.0	-2.6	0.4	17.2
HSI	27577.3	1.1	-2.0	1.1	16.8
JCI	5182.2	0.6	1.9	-5.6	-0.9
KLCI	1807.7	0.1	-1.9	-2.0	2.6
KOSPI	2085.5	-0.3	-2.7	-0.1	8.9
Nikkei 225	19379.2	0.5	-3.0	-2.7	11.1
SET	1510.5	0.8	-1.4	-2.4	0.9
TWSE	9692.0	-0.1	-1.3	0.8	4.1
BDI	574	0.2	-2.9	-1.0	-26.6
CPO (RM/mt)	2159	-0.6	3.7	-2.3	-6.0
Nymex Crude	59	-0.2	0.5	14.7	11.2

Top Picks

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Pot. +/-
Beijing Capital	694 HK	8.16	12.30	50.7
ICBC	1398 HK	6.54	7.80	19.3
Bank BJB	BJBR J	855.00	1,300.00	52.0
Maybank	MAY MK	9.29	10.30	10.9
DBS	DBS SP	21.05	25.08	19.1
Pacific Radiance	PACRA SP	0.67	0.99	47.8
Krung Thai Bank	KTB TB	20.10	27.00	34.3
Sino Thai Engr	STEC TB	21.00	30.25	44.0

Sell Pick:

UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Current price HK$10.80, target price HK$10.00, pot. +/- -7.4%

Key Assumptions

Region	GDP (yoy) 2013	GDP (yoy) 2014	GDP (yoy) 2015F
US	1.9	2.4	3.2
Euro Zone	-0.4	0.9	1.4
Japan	1.5	1.5	2.0
Singapore	3.9	3.2	3.3
Malaysia	4.7	5.9	5.2
Thailand	2.9	1.5	3.9
Indonesia	5.8	5.2	5.8
Hong Kong	2.9	3.5	3.7
China	7.7	7.2	7.0

Index	2014	2015F	2016F
Brent (US$/bbl)	99.45	65	70
CPO (US$/mt)	722	765	788
BDI	1,101	1,300	1,400

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Start	End
SKP Resources Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	12 May	12 May
SKP Resources Roadshow	Singapore	14 May	14 May
JCY International Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	14 May	14 May
E for L Aim Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	25 May	26 May
E for L Aim Roadshow	Singapore	27 May	27 May
SIN Telcos, SIN Banks & INDO Telcos Analyst Presentation	Taipei	28 May	28 May
China Auto Sector Analyst Presentation	Hong Kong	22 May	22 May
China Auto Sector Analyst Presentation	Singapore	26 May	26 May
China Auto Sector Analyst Presentation	Kuala Lumpur	27 May	28 May
Indosat Roadshow	Kuala Lumpur	27 May	27 May
Indosat Roadshow	Singapore	28 May	28 May
Indosat Roadshow	Taipei	29 May	29 May

Auto Sector Update - China

Re-rating: The auto sector is well on track for re-rating due to structural improvements in profitability.
Performance: Auto dealers are seeing improved bargaining power and growth in high-margin service businesses.
Target Price Adjustments:
- Baoxin (1293 HK): Target price raised to HK$6.60 from HK$4.60.
- Zhengtong (1728 HK): Target price raised to HK$7.70 from HK$5.00.
- Zhongsheng (881 HK): Target price raised to HK$7.50 from HK$5.10.
- Dah Chong Hong (1828 HK): Target price lowered to HK$4.30 from HK$3.70.
Actions:
- Maintain BUY on Zhengtong.
- Upgrade Zhongsheng to BUY.
- Downgrade Baoxin to HOLD.
- Maintain SELL on DCH (1828 HK).
Growth Outlook:
- Store openings are slowing due to reduced new car sales and saturation in big cities.
- After-sales services are expected to reaccelerate in 2H15.
- Other incomes (used car sales, auto finance, insurance) are growing fast.
- Parallel imports are being disrupted by OEMs, particularly with BMW's new X5 model.

Banking Sector Update - China

Monetary Policy Impact: The PBOC cut interest rates by 25bp and raised deposit rate ceiling to 1.5x. Earnings impact is estimated to be -3 to -4%.
Further Deregulation: Deposit rate ceiling is likely to increase, but banks have not fully utilised the current ceiling.
NIM Pressure: The removal of the loan-deposit ratio requirement could offset future NIM pressure.
Market Weight: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Risks

Forex Risk: A 10% depreciation of the renminbi could reduce net profits by 15-20% for Baoxin, Zhengtong, and Zhongsheng.

Analysts

China Economics: Chaoping Zhu
- Contact: +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822
- Email: chaoping@uobkayhian.com
China Auto Sector: Ken Lee
- Contact: +852 2236 6760
- Email: ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk