2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_2015_External_Sector_Report_40页_1mb

2015 External Sector Report Summary

Core Content

The 2015 External Sector Report (ESR) provides an updated assessment of the external sector positions of 29 major economies. It outlines the evolution of current account imbalances, the role of real effective exchange rates (REER), and the implications of recent developments on external positions. The report also emphasizes the importance of multilateral consistency in assessing these imbalances and the need for coordinated policy actions to address global external sector challenges.

Main Findings

Global Current Account Imbalances

• After a modest narrowing in 2013, global current account imbalances remained stable in 2014.
• The composition of imbalances has shifted over time, but overall progress in reducing excess imbalances has been limited.
• Excess deficits narrowed in some economies but widened in others, and progress on reducing excess surpluses has stalled.

Policy Implications

• An unfinished policy agenda to reduce excess imbalances persists.
• Efforts by both surplus and deficit economies are mutually reinforcing and support global growth.
• The report highlights the need for broader policy actions beyond monetary policy to improve global growth and financial stability.

Recent Developments

• Sharp declines in oil and commodity prices have had significant effects on external positions.
• Divergence in economic and monetary policies among major economies has led to substantial currency movements.
• These developments are not expected to overturn the previous pattern of excess imbalances, but they do raise new issues and risks.

Key Impacts of Recent Developments

A. Lower Prices of Oil and Other Commodities

• The sharp decline in oil prices in late 2014 had a direct and significant impact on current accounts, particularly for oil-importing economies.
• The valuation effect on the oil trade balance exceeded 1% of GDP for many ESR economies, with some experiencing much larger effects.
• The income windfall from lower oil prices is expected to have a short-term impact on current accounts, though this effect will be offset by changes in expenditure and exchange rates over time.

B. Economic and Monetary Policy Divergence and Exchange Rates

• The divergence in monetary policies among major economies has led to significant changes in exchange rates.
• These shifts reflect an incomplete recovery and the need for more comprehensive demand-supporting policies.
• The report emphasizes that these shifts are beneficial for the global economy but also carry risks, particularly for emerging markets.

C. Implications for External Positions

• The commodity price drop has had a notable impact on the current accounts of several economies.
• For oil-importing economies, the drop in oil prices led to a temporary improvement in current accounts.
• For oil-exporting economies, the drop led to a reduction in current account surpluses and foreign asset accumulation.
• The report also highlights the importance of exchange rate adjustments in the context of these changes.

D. Baseline Outlook for the Near Term

• The current account balance is expected to remain broadly stable in the short term.
• The impact of the oil price drop will be partially offset by currency movements and expenditure responses.
• The report suggests that the global financial environment remains accommodative, but risks persist due to the process of exiting from these policies.

Policy and Risk Considerations

• The global financial environment is complicated by the diverse risks associated with accommodative monetary policies and the process of exiting from them.
• Emerging markets and those with excess current account deficits are particularly vulnerable to these risks.
• The report urges policymakers to focus on steady external adjustment and to strengthen frameworks for managing external risks.
• Flexible policy responses are needed to address changing financial conditions.

Key Concepts and Methodology

• Current account imbalances refer to any current account balance different from zero.
• Current account gaps (or excess imbalances) are the difference between actual imbalances and those assessed to be consistent with fundamentals and desirable policies.
• Multilateral consistency means that too-high current accounts of some economies are matched by too-low current accounts of others.
• REER gaps are related to current account gaps and reflect distortions in domestic demand and exchange rates.
• External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology is used to inform, but not solely determine, assessments of external positions.

Reserve Adequacy

• Reserve adequacy calculations for end-2014 are similar to those for end-2013.
• Some emerging markets, including commodity exporters, experienced a decline in reserves due to weaker capital flows and lower export revenues.
• For most EMs, reserves remained adequate, though there is a need for strengthening reserve buffers where possible.
• The FCL arrangement in Poland remains an effective complement to international reserves, but additional accumulation is desirable.

Exchange Rate Adjustments

• The report notes that several economies experienced depreciation against the U.S. dollar, with most not using large-scale FX intervention.
• Currency depreciation played a shock-absorbing role for many commodity exporters and those facing country-specific stresses.
• Some economies appreciated against the currencies of other major trading partners, such as the euro area and Japan.
• For economies with large dollar-denominated debt, depreciation against the dollar generated balance sheet losses.

Conclusion

• The 2015 ESR underscores the importance of addressing current account imbalances through coordinated policy actions.
• The report highlights the need for a more comprehensive approach to external sector management, including both monetary and fiscal policies.
• The ongoing changes in commodity prices and exchange rates will continue to shape external positions in 2015 and beyond.
• The report serves as a foundation for further analysis and policy discussions, particularly in the context of global financial stability and sustainable growth.