2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Pilot_External_Sector_Report_38页_593kb

Summary of the International Monetary Fund's Integrated Surveillance Decision (ISD)

Core Content

The Integrated Surveillance Decision (ISD) is a proposed legal framework aimed at modernizing the Fund's surveillance operations. It is designed to address the limitations of the current legal structure, particularly the imbalance in the treatment of exchange rate and domestic policies, and to provide a more comprehensive and integrated approach to monitoring both bilateral and multilateral economic and financial policies. The ISD was proposed following previous Board discussions and is intended to support the Fund's role in promoting global economic and financial stability.

Main Changes and Objectives

The ISD introduces several key changes to improve the effectiveness of surveillance:

• Systematic Coverage of Spillovers: It aims to systematically cover all relevant spillovers from a member's policies, both domestic and exchange rate-related, that may affect global stability.
• Rebalancing Surveillance Focus: It seeks to rebalance the legal framework by integrating domestic policy considerations into bilateral surveillance, thus addressing the perceived "exchange rate bias."
• Clarification of Legal Scope: It clarifies that the ISD does not expand members' substantive obligations but only their procedural ones.
• Multilateral Surveillance Framework: It establishes a framework for multilateral surveillance, encouraging members to consider the global impact of their policies and to collaborate on issues requiring collective action.

Key Elements of the ISD

A. Preamble

• The preamble of the ISD extends the scope of surveillance to include multilateral aspects.
• It emphasizes the importance of interconnectedness and spillovers in the context of surveillance.
• It reaffirms that the ISD does not alter the nature or scope of members' obligations under the Articles of Agreement.

B. Principles for the Guidance of the Fund in its Surveillance

Scope of Surveillance

• Bilateral Surveillance: Focuses on the stability of the member's balance of payments and domestic stability.
• Multilateral Surveillance: Covers all issues relevant to global economic and financial stability, including spillovers from domestic policies.

Modalities of Surveillance

• Retains the key principles of dialogue, clarity, and evenhandedness from the 2007 Decision.
• Emphasizes the importance of medium-term perspectives in policy advice.
• The Fund will assess the impact of a member's policies on the international monetary system, even if they do not affect domestic stability.

C. Principles for the Guidance of Members' Policies

Bilateral Surveillance

• The ISD introduces a new principle on domestic policies, encouraging members to avoid policies that lead to domestic instability.
• This principle is framed in terms of "best efforts" due to the "soft" nature of domestic policy obligations.
• It retains the list of indicators used to assess compliance with obligations.

Multilateral Surveillance

• Encourages members to implement policies that support the effective operation of the international monetary system.
• This encouragement is provided "beyond members’ obligations," meaning it does not impose new legal requirements.
• The Fund will not require members to change their policies unless they significantly affect global stability.

D. Procedures for Surveillance

Article IV Consultations

• Article IV consultations will serve as a vehicle for both bilateral and multilateral surveillance.
• They will continue to assess compliance with Article IV Section 1, focusing on the member's balance of payments and domestic stability.
• A new multilateral surveillance component will allow discussions on spillovers from domestic policies that impact global stability.

Other Multilateral Surveillance Activities

• Periodic Reports on the International Monetary System: The Fund will prepare regular or ad hoc reports on global economic and financial developments, risks, and outlooks.
• Multilateral Consultations: The ISD provides a framework for discussions on global issues requiring collective action, such as through the G-20 or other forums.
• Data Provision: The Fund will continue to rely on data provided by members, with the Board playing a central role in initiating and concluding multilateral consultations.

Key Outcomes and Evidence

• The 2007 Decision significantly improved the coverage and quality of exchange rate analysis in surveillance.
• By 2008, over 90% of staff reports discussed exchange rate issues, and the use of advanced analytical techniques increased.
• The 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review noted that the focus on exchange rate assessments had become too narrow, prompting the need for a broader approach.

Conclusion

The ISD represents a step forward in modernizing the Fund's surveillance framework, enhancing its ability to address both domestic and global economic challenges. It maintains the legal boundaries of members' obligations while expanding the scope of surveillance to include spillovers and global stability considerations. The decision is designed to be flexible, adaptable, and supportive of the Fund's broader mission in promoting international monetary stability.