2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_2014_Pilot_External_Sector_Report_46页_1mb

2014 IMF Pilot External Sector Report Summary

Core Content

The 2014 IMF Pilot External Sector Report provides a multilaterally consistent assessment of the external sector positions and policies of the largest economies for 2013 and the first half of 2014. It integrates analyses from bilateral and multilateral surveillance to evaluate exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets.

Key Points

• External Sector Dynamics in 2013:

  • Advanced economies showed a stronger, though uneven, recovery, leading to initial steps toward monetary policy normalization.
  • The U.S. exit from unconventional monetary policy tightened global financial conditions and caused capital flow volatility and EM currency depreciations.
  • EM currencies rebounded as demand for EM assets increased, supported by policy responses.

• External Imbalances:

  • Overall external imbalances continued to narrow in 2013 but were still almost twice as large as those consistent with fundamentals and desirable policies.
  • Some imbalances narrowed due to fiscal consolidation, while others widened, particularly in EMs and some AEs.
  • The global configuration of current account balances has shifted, with imbalances increasingly concentrated in smaller economies.

• Policy Actions to Address Gaps:

  • Medium-term fiscal consolidation, limiting financial excesses, and structural reforms are needed to address external gaps.
  • Surplus economies should move toward more market-based exchange rates and reduce capital account restrictions.
  • Deficit economies need policies to support stronger domestic demand.
  • Coordinated policy actions are essential for both sides of the imbalance to achieve sustainable adjustment.

• Global Financial Environment:

  • The global financial environment remains complicated, with asynchronous monetary exits and tighter financial conditions.
  • EMs remain vulnerable to financial shocks, including re-pricing of credit risks and sovereign risk premia.
  • While financial conditions are still relatively easy, risks of asset price and demand booms persist.

• Current Account and Exchange Rate Trends:

  • The global current account imbalances continued to narrow, but unevenly.
  • The U.S. and China saw modest narrowing of their cyclically-adjusted current account balances.
  • Japan's surplus remained stable at about 1% of GDP, while the euro area surplus expanded.
  • EM currencies experienced significant depreciation after May 2013, though some had earlier appreciations.

• Exchange Rate Volatility and Policy Responses:

  • EM currencies showed marked volatility, with depreciation following the U.S. tapering announcement.
  • Some EMs implemented capital flow management (CFM) measures to limit outflows and stabilize their economies.
  • Examples include Brazil, Indonesia, and India introducing CFM policies to manage capital inflows and outflows.

• Structural and Cyclical Influences:

  • Structural factors, such as changes in global trade and production patterns, have reduced the sensitivity of trade balances to exchange rate movements.
  • Cyclical influences, including fiscal policies and commodity price cycles, have played a significant role in shaping current account balances.

• Uncertainty and Risks:

  • There is high uncertainty in assessing Japan's external position due to structural changes and policy shifts.
  • The current account gap is estimated to be centered around zero, with a range of ±1.5% of GDP.
  • Risks related to external financing, capital flow reversals, and disorderly currency movements remain relevant.

Main Viewpoints

• The report highlights the interconnectedness of external imbalances and the need for multilateral coordination in addressing them.
• Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to achieving sustainable external adjustment.
• Exchange rate flexibility and reducing capital account restrictions are important for surplus economies.
• Capital flow volatility and sovereign spreads have increased in EMs due to the U.S. tapering announcement.
• Cyclical and structural factors have a significant impact on current account balances and exchange rates.
• The global financial environment remains challenging, with risks of both financial instability and excessive demand.

Key Information

• Report Date: Released on June 26, 2014, for consideration by the IMF Executive Board on July 11, 2014.
• Scope: Covers 29 economies, including major advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets (EMs).
• Methodology: Uses the External Balance Assessment (EBA) to evaluate current account and exchange rate positions against fundamentals.
• Focus Areas:
  • Current account balances and real effective exchange rates (REERs).
  • External financing and capital flows.
  • Reserve accumulation and FX intervention.
• Risks Highlighted:
  • Sudden stops in capital flows.
  • Disorderly currency movements.
  • Asset price and demand booms due to easy financial conditions.

Outlook and Implications

• The global pattern of current account balances has continued to narrow but is shifting toward a new composition.
• The financial environment is expected to remain complex, with continued asynchronous monetary exits and tightening conditions.
• EMs are particularly vulnerable to external shocks and may experience volatility and selloff episodes in capital markets.
• Policy coordination is essential to ensure global stability and sustainable external adjustment.

Conclusion

The 2014 Pilot External Sector Report underscores the importance of multilateral policy coordination and structural reforms in addressing external imbalances. It also highlights the volatility and uncertainty in the global financial environment, particularly for EMs, and the need for careful policy management to mitigate risks and support long-term stability.