2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Malawi_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Request_for_a_Three_152页_1mb
报告摘要
Malawi: 2018 Article IV Consultation and ECF Arrangement Summary
Core Content
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Malawi totaling SDR 78.075 million (approximately US$112.3 million), equivalent to 56.25 percent of Malawi's quota. This arrangement supports the country's economic and financial reforms, aiming to achieve macroeconomic stability, inclusive growth, and resilience.
The Executive Board of the IMF approved the arrangement on April 30, 2018, with an immediate disbursement of SDR 11.15 million (US$16 million), and the remaining amount to be disbursed over the program period through semi-annual reviews.
Main Points
Economic Context
- Malawi's economy rebounded from two years of drought, with GDP growth increasing from 2.3% in 2016 to 4.0% in 2017.
- Inflation dropped below 10%, from high double digits in previous years, due to stabilized food prices, prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and a stable exchange rate.
- The current account deficit narrowed to 10.0% of GDP in 2017 from 13.6% in 2016.
- Public debt has doubled over the last decade, reaching 55% of GDP in 2017, following the withdrawal of donor budget support, securitization of arrears, and recapitalization of the Reserve Bank of Malawi and two public commercial banks.
Program Objectives
- The ECF-supported program aims to:
- Entrench macroeconomic stability
- Foster higher, more inclusive, and resilient growth
- Contain inflation
- Improve fiscal management and public financial management
- Enhance infrastructure and social spending
- Advance structural reforms to support growth and job creation
Key Policies
- Fiscal consolidation to ensure long-term debt and external sustainability
- Improved public financial management and procurement reforms
- Broad-based tax reforms to create a more efficient, transparent, and fair tax system
- Enhanced financial intermediation and access to finance
- Exchange rate flexibility to cushion against external shocks
- Monetary policy framework strengthening and reducing fiscal dominance
Outlook and Risks
- Medium-term growth is expected to reach over 6%, supported by infrastructure investment, social services, and an improved business environment.
- Downside risks include:
- Political pressures in the run-up to 2019 elections, which may weaken policy discipline and reform efforts
- Weather-induced shocks
- Declines in agricultural commodity prices
- Reduced donor flows
Key Information
- The IMF quota for Malawi is SDR 138.80 million.
- The ECF arrangement was part of the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy III (2018–23).
- The Executive Board commended the authorities for macroeconomic stability, but noted that growth has not been sufficient to reduce poverty or improve social indicators.
- Debt management and data transparency on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were emphasized as essential for fiscal sustainability.
- Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy strengthening were recommended to enhance resilience.
- Structural reforms in agriculture, infrastructure, and judicial processes are crucial for private sector development and economic diversification.
Documents Included
- Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF for April 30, 2018 consideration, based on discussions with Malawian officials from January 30, 2018.
- Press Release: Issued by the IMF on April 30, 2018.
- Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi.
- Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff.
- Documents to be released separately:
- Letter of Intent
- Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies
- Technical Memorandum of Understanding
- Selected Issues
Additional Notes
- The IMF's transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and avoiding premature disclosure of policy intentions.
- Copies of the report are available from the IMF Publication Services.
- Contact Information:
- Address: PO Box 92780, Washington, D.C. 20090
- Phone: (202) 623-7430
- Fax: (202) 623-7201
- Email: publications@imf.org
- Website: http://www.imf.org
- Price: $18.00 per printed copy
Summary of Economic Indicators (2016–2023)
| Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP at constant market prices | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.5 |
| Nominal GDP (billions of Kwacha) | 3,910 | 4,503 | 5,068 | 5,654 | 6,300 | 6,993 | 7,752 | 8,623 |
| GDP deflator | 19.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Consumer prices (end of period) | 20.0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Consumer prices (annual average) | 21.7 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| National savings (percent of GDP) | -2.8 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Gross investment (percent of GDP) | 10.8 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| Government investment (percent of GDP) | 4.4 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Private investment (percent of GDP) | 6.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.3 |
| Saving-investment balance (percent of GDP) | -13.6 | -10.0 | -8.9 | -8.1 | -7.9 | -7.7 | -7.7 | -7.6 |
| Revenue (percent of GDP) | 21.7 | 23.6 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.1 | 22.4 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| Tax and nontax revenue (percent of GDP) | 18.0 | 20.1 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.6 | 19.6 |
| Grants (percent of GDP) | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP) | 28.5 | 28.7 | 29.7 | 26.0 | 24.7 | 24.8 | 24.6 | 24.3 |
| Overall balance (excluding grants) (percent of GDP) | -10.5 | -8.6 | -10.1 | -6.5 | -5.3 | -5.3 | -5.0 | -4.7 |
| Overall balance (including grants) (percent of GDP) | -6.8 | -5.1 | -7.3 | -3.4 | -2.6 | -2.3 | -2.0 | -1.8 |
| Foreign financing (percent of GDP) | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Total domestic financing (percent of GDP) | 5.0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Financing gap (percent of GDP) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Discrepancy (percent of GDP) | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Primary balance (percent of GDP) | -2.8 | -0.6 | -3.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Money and quasi money (percent change) | 15.2 | 19.7 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 11.2 |
| Net foreign assets (percent of reserve money) | 182.3 | 197.0 | 175.2 | 178.3 | 199.7 | 221.1 | 240.3 | 259.8 |
| Net domestic assets (percent of reserve money) | 13.1 | 8.6 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 1.1 | -1.2 | -2.7 | -3.4 |
| Credit to the government (percent of GDP) | 17.5 | 20.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.4 |
| Credit to the private sector (percent change) | 4.6 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 14.3 | 14.5 |
| Exports (US$ millions) | 1,603 | 1,695 | 1,857 | 1,975 | 2,100 | 2,234 | 2,386 | 2,562 |
| Imports (US$ millions) | 2,520 | 2,547 | 2,747 | 2,769 | 2,927 | 3,110 | 3,326 | 3,572 |
| Gross official reserves (months of imports) | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Current account (percent of GDP) | -13.6 | -10.0 | -8.9 | -8.1 | -7.9 | -7.7 | -7.7 | -7.6 |
| External debt (public sector, percent of GDP) | 33.2 | 32.6 | 32.1 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.0 | 31.6 | 31.2 |
| NPV of public external debt (percent of exports) | 76.3 | 77.2 | 74.2 | 72.2 | 71.3 | 70.0 | 69.0 | 68.3 |
| Total public debt (percent of GDP) | 54.4 | 55.1 | 54.3 | 54.4 | 52.6 | 50.5 | 48.2 | 45.7 |
Conclusion
The ECF arrangement is a key support mechanism for Malawi to address fiscal and debt sustainability challenges, while also promoting growth and poverty reduction. The IMF has emphasized the need for strong program ownership, fiscal discipline, and structural reforms to ensure long-term economic stability and inclusive growth.
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