20151211-USDA-Rice_Outlook_2015.12.11_21页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the 2015/16 Rice Outlook

Core Content

The Economic Research Service (ERS) provides a comprehensive outlook for the 2015/16 U.S. and global rice markets, highlighting changes in supply, use, and prices. The report is approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and is part of the Rice Chart Gallery update on December 15, 2015, with the next release scheduled for January 14, 2016.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Import Forecast

U.S. 2015/16 import forecast was reduced by 1.0 million cwt to 24.5 million cwt, slightly below the previous year's record.
Long-grain imports were reduced by 5% to 21.0 million cwt, while medium- and short-grain imports remained at 3.5 million cwt, 1% below the previous year.
Carryin stocks (stocks available at the start of the marketing year) for all rice were estimated at 48.5 million cwt, 52% higher than the previous year. Long-grain carryin was 26.5 million cwt, 63% above the previous year, and medium- and short-grain carryin was 20.2 million cwt, 51% above the previous year.

Production and Supply

Total U.S. production for 2015/16 is 190.8 million cwt, 14% below the previous year, due to an 11% reduction in planted area and a 2% yield decrease.
Long-grain production dropped to 132.4 million cwt, 19% below the previous year, while medium- and short-grain production remained unchanged.
Total U.S. supply for 2015/16 is 263.8 million cwt, 5% below the previous year, with long-grain supply down to 179.8 million cwt, 10% below the previous year.
Combined medium- and short-grain supply increased by 8% to 82.1 million cwt, driven by a larger carryin.

Use and Exports

Total use (domestic and residual) is forecasted at 225.0 million cwt, 2% below the previous year.
Long-grain use is 159.0 million cwt, 8% below the previous year.
Combined medium- and short-grain use is 66.0 million cwt, 18% above the previous year, the highest since 2011/12.
U.S. rice exports are forecasted at 98.0 million cwt, 2% below the previous year.
- Long-grain exports are 65.0 million cwt, 8% below the previous year.
- Medium- and short-grain exports are 33.0 million cwt, 12% above the previous year, mainly due to large sales to Japan.
Exports and outstanding sales for all rice through November 26 were 1.67 million tons, 9% ahead of the previous year.
U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are 38.8 million cwt, 20% below the previous year, with the stocks-to-use ratio at 17.2%, down from 21.2%.
Long-grain ending stocks are 20.8 million cwt, 21% below the previous year, and the stocks-to-use ratio is 13.1%, down from 15.3%.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are 16.1 million cwt, 20% below the previous year's 28-year high.

U.S. Rice Price Outlook

Season-average farm price (SAFP) for long-grain rice remains at $11.50–$12.50 per cwt, slightly below the 2014/15 level.
Medium- and short-grain SAFP was reduced by $1.00 to $17.00–$18.00 per cwt, with the midpoint at $17.50, $1.20 below the 2014/15 level.
California medium- and short-grain SAFP is $20.50–$21.50 per cwt, 50 cents lower than last month, the lowest since December 2013.
Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is $11.80–$12.80 per cwt, 70 cents lower than last month, the lowest since August 2013.
U.S. long-grain milled rice prices for the week ending December 8 were $529 per ton, $22 lower than the previous week, the lowest since late August.
U.S. medium- and short-grain milled rice prices for the week ending December 8 were $750 per ton, $44 lower than the previous week.
U.S. long-grain milled rice price difference over Thailand's 100% grade B rice narrowed to $185 per ton, down $19 from the previous week.

Global Outlook

Production Forecast

Global production for 2015/16 is 469.3 million tons, 4.2 million tons lower than the previous forecast, 2% below the previous year, the smallest since 2011/12.
Production declines were reported in Australia, India, Madagascar, and the Philippines, with India's production reduced by 3.5 million tons to 100.0 million tons, the smallest since 2010/11.
Australia's production was reduced by 54% to 216,000 tons, due to a 36,000-hectare drop in area and lower yields.
Madagascar's production dropped 10% to 2.37 million tons, due to cyclone damage and rainfall deficit.
Philippines' production fell by 250,000 tons to 11.25 million tons, due to floods and cyclone damage.
Argentina's production increased by 40,000 tons to 930,000 tons, with a 10,000-hectare increase in area.
South Korea's production rose by 69,000 tons to 4.33 million tons, due to higher yields, but area is 2% below the previous year.

Consumption and Ending Stocks

Global consumption for 2015/16 is 484.6 million tons, a record high, leading to a 15% reduction in global ending stocks to 88.4 million tons, the lowest since 2007/08.
Ending stocks-to-use ratio is 18.2%, down from 21.5%.
Major exporting countries (India, Thailand, Vietnam, U.S., and Pakistan) are expected to see significant declines in ending stocks.
India's ending stocks are 11.2 million tons, 37% below the previous year, the lowest since 2005/06.
Thailand's ending stocks are 5.0 million tons, 51% below the previous year, the lowest since 2008/09.
Vietnam's ending stocks are 0.7 million tons, 43% below the previous year, the lowest since 1996/97.
U.S. ending stocks are 1.23 million tons, 21% below the previous year.

Global Trade Outlook

Global trade for 2016 is forecasted at 41.3 million tons, 0.53 million tons below the previous forecast, but still the third largest on record.
India's export forecast was reduced by 1.0 million tons to 8.5 million tons, due to a smaller crop.
Thailand's and Vietnam's exports were raised by 0.5 million tons and 0.1 million tons, respectively, due to stronger demand and competitiveness.
Nigeria's import forecast was reduced by 0.5 million tons, while Laos and Madagascar's import forecasts were raised.
Nigeria's imports in 2016 are 29% below the previous year, the smallest since 2010.
U.S. imports in 2016 are 4% above the previous year, the highest on record.

Price Trends

Thailand's export prices for high and medium grades of regular-milled white rice dropped ~1%, primarily due to lack of new demand and ongoing harvest.
Vietnam's prices also declined slightly, though supplies are tighter than in Thailand.
U.S. long-grain milled rice prices declined faster than in Asia, narrowing the price gap.
Thailand's jasmine rice prices were $728 per ton, $85 lower than the previous week.
Vietnam's double-water-polished rice prices were $375 per ton, $5 lower than the previous week.
U.S. long-grain rough rice prices were $280 per ton, the lowest since early August.

Key Factors Affecting Markets

Reduced global production due to lower area and yield.
High global consumption, especially in China, Bangladesh, and Indonesia.
Lower U.S. import forecast due to slow delivery pace and expected purchases.
Strong export performance in medium- and short-grain rice, especially to Japan.
Narrowing U.S. price advantage over Thailand and Vietnam, due to lower prices and higher demand in Asia.
El Niño concerns in Asia are offsetting by limited new sales for U.S. long-grain rice.