20211213-USDA-Rice_Outlook__December_2021_15页_273kb

Rice Outlook Summary - December 2021

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2021/22 marketing year, including production, consumption, trade, and price forecasts.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Import Forecast: The U.S. 2021/22 import forecast was lowered by 1.5 million cwt to 33.5 million cwt, marking the second consecutive year of decline. This is attributed to global container shortages, high freight costs, and supply chain disruptions.
  • Long-grain imports are projected at 26.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 5 percent below a year earlier.
  • Medium- and short-grain imports are projected at 7.5 million cwt, down 0.5 million cwt from the previous forecast but nearly 12 percent above a year earlier.
• Export Forecast: The U.S. 2021/22 export forecast was lowered by 1.0 million cwt to 89.0 million cwt, the smallest since 2017/18. The reduction is mainly due to weaker sales to Haiti and a reduced medium- and short-grain export forecast.
  • Long-grain exports are projected at 64.0 million cwt, unchanged from the previous forecast but nearly 2 percent below a year earlier.
  • Milled rice exports are projected at 55.0 million cwt, the lowest since 1973/74, down 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
  • Rough-rice exports are projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but down almost 2 percent from a year earlier.
• Production Forecast: U.S. 2021/22 rice production remains at 193.8 million cwt, nearly 15 percent smaller than a year earlier. The decline is due to reduced harvested area and smaller crop yields, especially in California.
  • Long-grain production is forecast at 146.7 million cwt, down 14 percent from the previous year.
  • Combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 47.1 million cwt, the smallest since 2005/06.
• Ending Stocks Forecast: The U.S. 2021/22 ending stocks are forecast at 34.5 million cwt, down 0.5 million cwt from the previous forecast and 21 percent below a year earlier.
  • The all-rice stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 14.6 percent, down from 17.7 percent a year earlier.
  • Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 23.5 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
  • Combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 8.5 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from the previous forecast but 25 percent below a year earlier.
• Farm Price Forecasts (SAFP):
  • Long-grain SAFP is raised to $13.10 per cwt, up 10 cents from the previous forecast and 50 cents above a year earlier.
  • Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is lowered to $13.70 per cwt, still $0.60 above 2020/21.
  • California medium- and short-grain SAFP remains at $23.00 per cwt, up $2.10 from 2020/21 and the highest since 2008/09.
  • U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is lowered to $20.00 per cwt, up $1.20 from a year earlier.
  • All-rice SAFP remains at $14.80 per cwt, up $0.80 from a year earlier.

Global Outlook

• Production Forecast: Global rice production in 2021/22 is forecast at a record 510.8 million tons (milled basis), down 0.9 million tons from the previous forecast but up 3.6 million tons from a year earlier.
  • Production forecasts were lowered for Bangladesh, China, EU, Peru, and Thailand, but raised for Australia, Guyana, South Korea, and Russia.
• Consumption and Residual Use Forecast: Global rice consumption and residual use in 2021/22 are projected at a record 510.9 million tons, down almost 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast but up nearly 8.9 million tons from a year earlier.
  • Consumption and residual forecasts were lowered for Burma, Haiti, Iran, Peru, and Saudi Arabia, but raised for Afghanistan and the Philippines.
• Ending Stocks Forecast: Global ending rice stocks for 2021/22 are forecast at 186.8 million tons, down 1.1 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.1 million tons below the year-earlier record.
  • Ending stocks were lowered for Bangladesh, Burma, Egypt, Haiti, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States.
  • Ending stocks were raised for Australia, Iraq, South Korea, Laos, and Russia.
• Trade Forecast: Global rice trade in 2022 is projected at 48.8 million tons (milled basis), up 0.1 million tons from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from the year-earlier record.
  • Export forecasts were raised for Burma but lowered for the EU.
  • Import forecasts were lowered for Haiti, Iran, and the United States, but raised for Iraq, the Philippines, and Peru.
  • Thailand's white rice prices were either unchanged or increased by 1 percent, while India, Pakistan, and Vietnam saw price declines.
  • U.S. export prices for long-grain and California medium- and short-grain remained unchanged.

Key Information

• Supply Chain Issues: Global container shortages and high freight costs are major factors affecting U.S. rice imports and exports.
• Competition: South American long-grain suppliers are expected to increase competition in key Latin American markets in 2022.
• Market Trends:
  • U.S. exports are expected to be limited by cheaper Asian rice and growing South American competition.
  • The U.S. is not expected to export rice to North Africa in 2021/22.
• Regional Highlights:
  • Thailand and India are the largest suppliers of long-grain rice to the U.S.
  • China is the main supplier of medium- and short-grain rice to Puerto Rico.
  • Australia is expected to increase its market share in Northeast Asia and Oceania due to a strong area expansion.
  • Vietnam and the U.S. are projected to have smaller supplies, leading to reduced consumption and residual use.

Tables Summary

• Table A:

  • Australia's production forecast was raised due to increased harvested area and improved water allocations.
  • Bangladesh's production forecast was lowered due to reduced harvested area and flooding.
  • China's production forecast was slightly lowered but with a record high yield.
  • EU's production forecast was lowered due to reduced crop forecasts for France, Greece, Italy, and Spain.
  • South Korea's production forecast was raised due to a record high yield.
  • Russia's production forecast was raised due to a higher yield.
  • Thailand's production forecast was lowered due to floods in September and October.

• Table B:

  • Afghanistan's import forecast was raised due to increased purchases from Pakistan.
  • Haiti's import forecast was lowered due to a slowdown in purchases from the U.S.
  • Hong Kong's import forecast was lowered due to a slower purchase pace.
  • Iran's import forecast was lowered due to reduced purchases from India.
  • Iraq's import forecast was raised due to stronger-than-expected purchases.
  • Peru's import forecast was raised due to a smaller crop.
  • Philippines' import forecast was raised due to continued strong purchases in late 2021.
  • United States' import forecast was lowered due to continued slowdown in purchases.