20151211-USDA-Cotton_and_Wool_Outlook_2015.12.11_16页_881kb

Cotton and Wool Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the global and U.S. cotton and wool market outlook for the 2015/16 season, based on USDA projections. It includes information on production, trade, demand, and price trends, as well as statistical data and forecasts for different regions and fibers.

Main Points

Global Cotton Trade

• Global Cotton Trade Forecast: World cotton trade is expected to remain steady at 35.4 million bales for 2015/16, slightly below the previous season and the lowest since 2010/11.
• China's Role: China's import demand was the primary driver of the previous record trade, but its imports are forecast to decline for the fourth consecutive season.
• Leading Cotton Shippers:
  • U.S. exports are projected to be more than 1 million bales below the previous year due to a weather-reduced crop.
  • India's exports are expected to rebound despite a lower crop, due to increased demand from Pakistan.
  • Brazil and Australia are forecast to have slight rebounds in exports.
  • Uzbekistan's exports are declining for the fourth consecutive season.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• U.S. Cotton Production: The 2015 U.S. cotton production is forecast at 13.0 million bales, a 3.3 million bales decrease from 2014.
• Regional Production:
  • Cotton Belt: Production is expected to decrease in all regions.
  • Southwest: Forecast at 6.2 million bales, down from 6.5 million bales.
  • Southeast: Forecast at 3.8 million bales, the lowest since 2009.
  • Delta: Forecast at 2.1 million bales, the smallest since 1983.
  • West: Production is expected to be the lowest in 8 decades, despite a near-record yield.

U.S. Demand and Stocks

• U.S. Cotton Demand: Forecast at 13.7 million bales for 2015/16, a 200,000 bales decrease from the previous month and nearly 8 percent below 2014/15.
• U.S. Exports: Forecast at 10.0 million bales, down 200,000 bales from the previous month.
• U.S. Ending Stocks: Forecast at 3.0 million bales, 700,000 bales below the beginning level.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Estimated at 22 percent, the lowest in two seasons.
• Farm Price: Midpoint for upland cotton farm price remains at 59 cents per pound, with a forecast range of 56 to 62 cents per pound.

International Outlook

• Global Cotton Production: Forecast at 103.7 million bales for 2015/16, 13 percent below the previous season and the lowest since 2009/10.
• Major Producers:
  • India and China: Together account for 51 percent of global production, with India's production at 28.5 million bales and China's at 24.3 million bales.
  • India's Production: Declined by 1 million bales due to lower area and higher yields.
  • China's Production: Declined by 5.7 million bales to 24.3 million bales, with a record national yield of 1,534 kg per hectare.
  • Pakistan's Production: Forecast at 8.0 million bales, nearly 25 percent below the previous season due to reduced area and yield.
• World Mill Use: Expected to rise 0.9 percent in 2015/16, marking the fourth consecutive annual increase, but the third consecutive year of slower growth than the long-run average of 1.8 percent.
• Global Cotton Stocks: Expected to decline by 7.6 million bales in 2015/16, the first decline in 6 years, but still at a high level (94 percent of world consumption).
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Expected to be 93.7 percent, significantly higher than the 1980-2011 average of 31 percent.
• Cotton Prices: Little change is expected in cotton prices in 2015/16, with the U.S. season-average farm price expected to fall 3.8 percent and the A-Index unchanged.
• Factors Affecting Prices: High ending stocks in China, supply tightness for certain cotton qualities, and the strengthening U.S. dollar are key factors.

Key Information

• U.S. Cotton Crop: Reduced by nearly 2 percent to 13.0 million bales in December 2015, with the lowest yield since 2003/04.
• U.S. Upland Cotton: Forecast at 12.6 million bales, down from 15.8 million bales in 2014.
• U.S. Extra-Long Staple (ELS): Forecast at 451,000 bales, the lowest in 6 years.
• Global Cotton Production: Projected at 103.7 million bales, down 13 percent from the previous season.
• Global Harvested Area: Estimated at 31.2 million hectares, down from 34.0 million hectares in 2014/15.
• Global Yield: Forecast at 723 kg per hectare, down from 763 kg per hectare in 2014/15.
• Global Mill Use: Expected to rise 0.9 percent, but still below the long-run average.
• Global Cotton Stocks: Decline by 7.6 million bales, but remain at 94 percent of world consumption.
• U.S. Textile Imports: Cotton textile imports are expected to decrease, with manmade fiber imports being the largest component.
• U.S. Textile Exports: Cotton textile exports are expected to remain relatively stable, with manmade fiber exports being the largest category.

Contacts and Links

• Leslie Meyer: (202) 694-5307, lmeyer@ers.usda.gov
• Stephen MacDonald: (202) 694-5305, stephenm@ers.usda.gov
• Carolyn Liggon: (202) 694-5056, cvliggon@ers.usda.gov
• Subscription Information: Available via ERS e-mail notification service
• Cotton and Wool Monthly Tables: CWS-Cotton and Wool Outlook
• Cotton and Wool Chart Gallery: Cotton and Wool Chart Gallery
• WASDE Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
• Cotton Topics: Cotton and Wool Topics
• Cotton and Wool Outlook: Cotton and Wool Outlook

Additional Notes

• The USDA prohibits discrimination in its programs and activities.
• Persons with disabilities can contact the USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 for alternative communication methods.
• Readers can receive email notifications about report releases via the ERS e-mail service or the ERS website.