20231126-恒力期货-建材战略研报_43页_1mb

Summary of Market Analysis Report

Investment Consultation Qualification

The report is issued by 恒力期货 with investment consultation qualification,证监会许可号码2012338. Please refer to the last page for important declarations.

Pure Alkali Views

• Market Conditions: Current现货报价乱, light and heavy alkali tight, with封单主导市场.现货价格维持高位.
• Supply-Demand Balance: Supply increased by 332,000 tons,但inventory declined by 371,000 tons; clean stock also decreased, indicating strong补库需求. Demand improvement in light alkali sectors drives price stability.
• Price Level: 价格支撑源于下游补库; light alkali下游需 demand intensifies, pushing重碱补库.库存 days for glass厂rise to 13-18 days;基差 large but prices may migrate slowly.
• Trade Strategy: Short-term震荡偏多;1-5正套 attractive if库存低位. Upward drivers include下游补库; downward risks if demand weakens or imports surge.

Glass Views

• **Market Conditions:**现货价格震荡，厂家库存高企; seasonal demand transition to淡季, but strong刚需 sustained.
• Supply-Demand: Inventories low due to high开工率 and赶工 demand; cost支撑 from high天然气cost and纯碱price. End-of-year备货 risk if库存 not cleared.
• Price Level: FG2405合约逢低或坚挺, with potential上行 if policy support; downward driven by高供给 and地产 weakness.
• **Trade Strategy:**逢 low多配 near-term;05-09正套 for价差 opportunity. Upward drivers include深加工 orders, policy; downward risks from1复产.

PVC Views

• **Market Conditions:**盤面下行, inventory mixed with社库去库 rates below expectations.开工率 rise but strict due to highcost.
• **Supply-Demand:**電石法亏损加深; prices influenced by imports and出口; demand variable，demand order days weakening.
• Price Level: PVC remains weak, 1-5月差反套 opportunities exist with caution due to高 inventory risks.
• **Trade Strategy:**逢 high偏空; caution needed for1-5正套 due to potential imports or供给 increase.

Disclaimer

Please read the last page for full details and risks. The report is based on internal research, and individual outcomes may vary based on market changes. This summary does not constitute investment advice.