20150820-三星证券-Samsung_Earnings_Monitor_2Q_report_card_23页_1mb

Quantitative Issue Summary

Core Content

This document is a financial report analyzing the performance and expectations of the Samsung Universe and the broader MSCI Korea index for the second quarter of 2015 and the full year 2015-2016. It provides forecasts for operating and net profits, valuation metrics, and insights into sector performance and trends.

Main Points

Earnings Forecast

• Samsung Universe:
  • Operating profit expected to rise by 15% year-over-year (YoY) to KRW107t in 2015 and KRW122.1t in 2016.
  • Net profit expected to rise by 28% YoY to KRW89t in 2015 and KRW97.1t in 2016.
• MSCI Korea:
  • Operating profit expected to rise by 17% YoY to KRW108t in 2015.
  • Net profit expected to rise by 31% YoY to KRW89t in 2015.
  • 3Q forecasts show operating profit rising 33% YoY to KRW31t and net profit rising 73% YoY to KRW29t, which are slightly lower than the end-June estimates.

2Q Review

• The 2Q results were considered "not so bad" compared to inflated expectations from 1Q.
• Shipbuilders and automakers underperformed, while energy, utilities, telecom services, and chemicals sectors drove growth.
• Many firms missed their end-June consensus forecasts by around 11% for operating profit and 30% for net profit.
• The Kospi 200 showed 9% YoY growth in operating profit and 1% YoY growth in net profit for 2Q, maintaining growth in the first half of the year.

Valuation Metrics

• Samsung Universe:
  • Forward P/E ratio: 10.4x as of Aug 19.
  • Forward P/B ratio: 1.0x as of Aug 19.
• MSCI Korea:
  • Forward P/E ratio: 10.3x as of Aug 19.
  • Forward P/B ratio: 1.0x as of Aug 19.
• Kospi Valuations:
  • Current P/E: 10.4x.
  • Potential P/E levels: From 8.0x at 1,500 points to 10.7x at 2,000 points.
  • P/B ratios vary from 0.77x to 1.03x depending on the index level.

Key Information

Sector Performance

• Energy: Operating profit increased by 85.3% in 2015 and 22.3% in 3Q.
• Materials: Operating profit declined by 11.4% in 2015 and (5.9)% in 3Q.
• Industrials: Operating profit fell by 43.4% in 2015 and (67.1)% in 3Q.
• Consumer Discretionary: Operating profit fell by 17.4% in 2015 and (60.0)% in 3Q.
• Consumer Staples: Operating profit rose by 14.1% in 2015 and (16.4)% in 3Q.
• Healthcare: Operating profit rose by 96.7% in 2015 and (60.0)% in 3Q.
• Financials: Operating profit rose by 3.6% in 2015 and (10.6)% in 3Q.
• IT: Operating profit rose by 7.9% in 2015 and (6.8)% in 3Q.
• Telecom Services: Operating profit rose by (13.5)% in 2015 and (2.0)% in 3Q.
• Utilities: Operating profit rose by 22.3% in 2015 and (10.0)% in 3Q.

Net Profit Forecasts

• Samsung Universe:
  • Net profit expected to rise by 28.4% YoY in 2015 and 4.6% YoY in 2016.
• MSCI Korea:
  • Net profit expected to rise by 26.5% YoY in 2015 and 5.8% YoY in 2016.
• 3Q15 Net Profit:
  • MSCI Korea: Expected to rise by 72.7% YoY to KRW29t.

Summary Table

Key Observations

• The Samsung Universe and MSCI Korea have seen mixed performance in 2Q, with some sectors outperforming while others underperformed.
• Analysts have been overly optimistic, leading to a gap between actual results and forecasts.
• The forward P/E and P/B multiples are relatively low compared to historical levels, indicating potential undervaluation.
• Investors are advised to consider the trend of earnings growth and the current valuation levels for investment decisions.