20230404-招银国际-汇量科技-01860.HK-Looking_into_FY23E_reacceleration_7页_1001kb

报告摘要

Mobvista Inc. (1860 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

Mobvista Inc. (1860 HK) is a leading player in the global digital advertising and marketing technology sector. The company has demonstrated resilience in the face of global macroeconomic challenges and inflation, delivering largely in-line FY22 results. The report highlights its strong performance in the ad-tech segment and its strategic moves to reaccelerate growth in FY23E.

Main Points and Key Information

FY22 Results

Revenue Growth: Increased by 18% YoY to $894 million, aligning with the forecast.
Adjusted Net Loss: Reduced to US$9.7 million, better than the estimated US$10.9 million.
Mintegral Performance: Grew by 44% YoY, driven by strong momentum in the game vertical (+42% YoY), while e-commerce revenue declined slightly (-1.4% YoY).
Nativex Decline: Fell 68% YoY as the company shifted focus towards programmatic ads.
Gross Margin: Improved to 19.8%, exceeding the forecast by 0.2ppts, due to disciplined traffic subsidies and growth in Mintegral.

FY23E Reacceleration

Revenue Forecast: Expected to grow by 25% YoY, with a solid start in 1Q23E (13% YoY growth).
Growth Drivers:
- Vertical expansion into midcore and hardcore games.
- Launch of ROAS mode.
- Better targeting through algorithm optimization.
- Strategic cooperation with Google.
Margin Improvement: Adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise by 138% YoY, with gross margin expected to remain stable at 19.9% to 20.1%.

Financial Forecasts

Metric	FY21A	FY22A	FY23E	FY24E	FY25E
Revenue (US$ mn)	755	894	1,114	1,337	1,564
Adj. Net Profit (US$ mn)	(4)	10	23	33	40
Gross Margin (%)	16.1	19.8	19.9	20.1	20.1
Operating Margin (%)	-2%	0%	1%	2%	2%
Adj. Net Margin (%)	-1%	1%	2%	2%	3%

Valuation and Target Price

Target Price (HK$): HK$6.3, based on SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation.
P/E Ratio: 37x (FY23E), 26x (FY24E), 22x (FY25E).
P/S Ratio: 0.8x (FY23E), 0.6x (FY24E), 0.6x (FY25E).
Earnings CAGR: 31% for FY23-25E.

Shareholding and Market Data

Market Cap (HK$ mn): 6,674
Shareholding Structure:
- Seamless Technology: 63.2%
- GIC: 8.0%
- Citigroup: 4.7%

Performance Metrics

Period	Absolute Return (%)	Relative Return (%)
1-mth	0.5	-1.5
3-mth	1.0	-1.3
6-mth	1.5	-13.7

Analyst Recommendations

CMBIGM Rating: BUY
Target Price (HK$): 6.3 (unchanged from previous)
Current Price (HK$): 4.25
Up/Downside: +48.2%

Strategic Highlights

Vertical Expansion: Focused on midcore and hardcore game verticals.
ROAS Mode: Upcoming launch expected to boost performance.
Cooperation with Google: Likely to provide additional growth opportunities.
SaaS Ecosystem: Includes GA, Reyun, and SpotMax, with potential for long-term synergies with Mintegral.

Competitive Landscape (Comps Table)

Company	Ticker	Mkt Cap (USD mn)	Price	CMBI Rating	FY23E P/E	FY24E P/E	FY25E P/E	FY23E P/S	FY24E P/S	FY25E P/S	FY23-25 EPS CAGR
Mobvista	1860 HK	873	4.3	BUY	37.1	26.0	22.0	0.8	0.6	0.6	31%
Trade Desk	TTD US	29,894	61	NA	61.1	44.3	35.1	15.9	12.8	10.4	25%
Applovin	APP US	5,928	16	NA	27.4	20.1	13.6	2.1	1.9	1.8	55%
Unity Software	U US	12,157	32	NA	28.2	23.9	19.2	5.8	5.2	4.6	19%
Meta	META US	549,484	212	NA	19.9	16.2	14.9	4.5	4.0	3.6	20%
Google	GOOGL US	1,330,201	104	NA	19.0	16.1	13.4	4.8	4.5	4.1	21%
Snapchat	SNAP US	17,727	11	NA	NA	55.0	28.7	3.8	3.2	2.7	202%
Average	-	-	-	-	22.1	17.5	13.8	3.4	3.0	2.6	26%

Conclusion

Mobvista is positioned for continued growth and margin improvement in FY23E and beyond, supported by strategic initiatives and a strong ad-tech business. The company's SOTP-based target price remains HK$6.3, reflecting confidence in its future performance. The BUY recommendation is maintained, with the expectation of a significant upside potential.

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