20161010-辉立证券-Bangkok_Bank_11页_384kb

报告摘要

Bangkok Bank PCL Summary

Core Content

Bangkok Bank PCL (BBL) is a major Thai bank that provides commercial banking services to corporate, SME, and retail customers across the country and in key global economic zones. The bank is under review by Phillip Securities Group for its financial performance and corporate governance practices.

Financial Overview

3QFY16 Net Profit: Forecasted at Bt8.2bn, representing a 9.4% year-over-year decline but a 14.5% quarter-over-quarter increase.
Loan Growth: Expected to contract 0.5% quarter-over-quarter in 3QFY16 due to corporate loan repayments, leading to a 1.5% year-to-date growth from 2% in 2QFY16.
NPLs (Non-Performing Loans): Projected to rise to 3.3% in 3QFY16 from 3% in 2QFY16, though the increase is expected to slow down compared to the previous quarter.
Loan Loss Provisions: Estimated to rise to Bt3.6bn in 3QFY16 from Bt3.5bn in 2QFY16, but may be reduced in 4QFY16 due to the slower pace of NPLs increase.

Earnings and Forecast Adjustments

FY16 Loan Growth Target: Revised down to 3% from 5% due to the slower growth in 3QFY16.
FY16-FY17 Net Profit Forecast: Reduced by 1.8% and 2.4% to Bt32.6bn and Bt35.2bn respectively, from Bt33.2bn and Bt36.1bn.
Dividend Outlook: Unchanged for FY16 at Bt6.50/share, but trimmed for FY17 to Bt6.50/share from Bt7.00/share.

Valuation and Target Price

FY17 Target Price: Cut to Bt174/share from previous levels, reflecting the revised earnings forecast.
Rating: Maintained at 'ACCUMULATE', indicating limited upside potential but a bullish outlook for the bank due to its expertise in corporate finance and potential windfall from mega-investment projects.

Key Financial Metrics

Metric	FY14	FY15	FY16E	FY17E
Revenue (Btbn)	97	103	107	113
Net Profit (Btbn)	36	34	33	35
EPS (Bt)	19.03	17.91	17.07	18.46
P/E (X)	8.7	9.2	9.7	8.9
BVPS (Bt)	169.47	189.56	203.21	218.57
P/B (X)	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.8
DPS (Bt)	6.50	6.50	6.50	6.50
Dividend Yield (%)	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9
ROE (%)	11.73	9.97	8.69	8.75
Debt/Equity (X)	8.53	7.83	7.56	7.45

Price Performance

Period	1MTH	3MTH	1YR
ABS	0%	2%	4%
REL TO SET INDEX	-1%	-1%	-4%

Company Data (as of 10 October 2016)

Closing Price (Bt): 165.00
Target Price (Bt): 174.00 (+9.39%)
O/S Shares (mn): 1,909
Market Cap. (Btmn): 314,959
Market Cap. (USDmn): 9,020
52-WK Hi/Lo (Bt): 182 / 142.5
3M Average Daily T/O (mn): 5.61
Par Value (Bt): 10.00

Major Shareholders (as of 09 September 2016)

Shareholder	Percentage
Thai NVDR	33.4
CHASE NOMINEES LIMITED	4.1
The Thailand Securities Depository Co., Ltd.	2.8

Peer Comparison (as of 07 October 2016)

Company	Mkt Cap. (Btmn)	P/E (X)	P/BV (X)	Div Yield (%)
Bangkok Bank PCL	314,959	9.8	0.9	3.9
Kasikornbank PCL	459,506	13.3	1.6	2.1
Krung Thai Bank PCL	250,171	8.8	1.0	4.2
Siam Commercial Bank PCL	512,683	11.6	1.7	3.6

Risk Factors

Economic Uncertainty: Both global and domestic economic conditions pose risks.
Credit Risk: Potential for loan defaults and non-performing loans.
Regulatory Changes: Financial institution regulations may impact operations.

Key Developments

2014: BBL was granted licenses to operate banking activities in Myanmar.
2013: Opened a new branch in Medan, Indonesia.
2012: Increased stake in Bualuang Securities to 99.75%.
2011: Chansak Guangfu appointed as board director.
2009: Successfully issued US$1.2bn of senior bonds on global capital markets.

Anti-Corruption Indicators

Level 5 (Extended): Policies extend to business partners, dealers, and distributors.
Level 4 (Certified): Policies certified by CAC and independent assurance providers.
Level 3 (Established): Policies cover anti-bribery, communications, and employee education.
Level 3A: Public statement to join CAC, etc.
Level 3B: Declare statement and organization's anti-corruption policies.

Corporate Governance

The bank's corporate governance is assessed based on third-party surveys, with results indicating varying levels of anti-corruption commitment and policy implementation across different sectors. Phillip Securities (Thailand) does not confirm the accuracy of these survey results.

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