20230511-银河期货-有色金属衍生品晨报_4页_828kb

• Overall Market Outlook: The report highlights that US CPI data (CPI at 4.9% YoY, below expectations) may provide a pause for Fed rate hikes but overall sentiment is bearish due to weak fundamentals, including high supply, inventory accumulation, and subdued demand across most metals.

• Copper: Prices fell, with overnight recovery after data but subsequent drop. LME and domestic inventory increases, high production (1-4M: +350,000 tons), and strong demand in sectors like PV and air conditioning. Short-term support at ~66,000; view is bearish for now.

• Aluminum: Prices continue declining, low psychological barriers due to inventory upswings in China, weak demand linked to economic recovery concerns, and expectations of Yunn. Increased supply and economic slowdown weigh heavily. Strong bearish signal.

• Zinc: Significant drops observed, tied to soaring supply and lackluster demand, with 4M inventory shares rising. Production remains elevated, contributing to bearish fundamentals, with short positions advised.

• Lead: Immense oscillation with inventory builds during festival, driven by tight raw material supply. Supply end modification expected soon due to falls in some markets. Overall oscillatory pattern, with short or long strategies depending on entry points.

• Nickel & Stainless Steel: Nickel prices under macro influence, with medium-term excess supply and some recovery through Chinese demand, but rising inventories apply pressure. Stainless steel moderately affected, with hot rolling flooded markets and material rises in alloys boosting costs, yet profit margins tightening. Overall bearish trends, suggesting short positions.

• Tin: Prices fluctuating around 21,000; demand constraints exist despite PV stimulus after lower prices. Supply-demand imbalance, with mines idled or producing low, but excess output matters more. Peers likely to purchase below-key indicators, holding bearish view.

The report emphasizes that geopolitical elements and external trade dynamics (e.g., imports, LME holdings) heighten risks, with copper and some industrial metals stressing short strategies for emerging trends.