世界能源评论2021-164页_37mb

World Energy Review 2021 Summary

Core Content Overview

The World Energy Review 2021 is a comprehensive analysis of the global energy sector, focusing on oil, natural gas, and renewable energy sources. It provides insights into supply, demand, trade, prices, and production quality for oil, and similar metrics for natural gas. Additionally, it highlights the growth and development of renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power.

Main Points and Key Information

Oil Sector

Supply and Demand

• Global Oil Demand: Collapsed by nearly 9% in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, marking the largest contraction since the Second World War.
• Oil Production: Decreased by 6.5% in 2020, with all categories of crude oil affected.
• OPEC+ Response: Implemented record cuts in crude oil production to address the demand reduction.
• Crude Oil Prices: The Brent price fell to its lowest level in over 15 years, averaging $41.7/b, and at times dropped below $20/b. US WTI even fell below zero for one day.
• Reserves: Global oil reserves stood at 1,740,264 million barrels as of December 31, 2020, showing a 0.3% year-on-year growth.

Top 10 Reserves Holders (2020)

• Venezuela: 303,806 million barrels
• Saudi Arabia: 258,481 million barrels
• Iran: 208,600 million barrels
• Canada: 168,088 million barrels
• Iraq: 145,019 million barrels
• Russia: 107,804 million barrels
• Kuwait: 101,500 million barrels
• United Arab Emirates: 97,800 million barrels
• Libya: 48,363 million barrels
• Rest of the World: 246,159 million barrels

Production and Consumption

• Production/Consumption Ratio: The global ratio was 1.0%, showing a slight surplus in production over consumption.
• Per Capita Consumption: Varies significantly by region, with the top 10 consumers ranked by this metric.

Production Quality

• Crude Classification by API Gravity and Sulphur Content:
  • Ultra Light: API ≥ 50°, sulphur < 0.5%
  • Light & Sweet: API 35°–49.9°, sulphur < 0.5%
  • Light & Medium Sour: API 35°–49.9°, sulphur 0.5%–0.99%
  • Light & Sour: API 35°–49.9°, sulphur ≥ 1%
  • Medium & Sweet: API 26°–34.9°, sulphur < 0.5%
  • Medium & Medium Sour: API 26°–34.9°, sulphur 0.5%–0.99%
  • Medium & Sour: API 26°–34.9°, sulphur ≥ 1%
  • Heavy & Sweet: API 10°–25.9°, sulphur < 0.5%
  • Heavy & Medium Sour: API 10°–25.9°, sulphur 0.5%–0.99%
  • Heavy & Sour: API 10°–25.9°, sulphur ≥ 1%
• Crude Production by Quality: Detailed breakdowns by region (Europe, Russia and Central Asia, Middle East, etc.) are provided, with a focus on the API gravity and sulphur content of different crude types.

Refining Industry

• Refining Capacity: Includes asphalt and lube units, with primary capacity and conversion capacity (FCC equivalent) reported.
• Complexity Ratio: Measures the ratio of conversion capacity (FCC equivalent) over primary capacity, indicating the ability of a refinery to produce high-value products.
• Nelson Complexity Index (NCI): Another metric for secondary conversion capacity relative to primary distillation capacity.

Natural Gas Sector

Supply and Demand

• Global Gas Demand: Decreased by 1.5% in 2020, after 10 years of growth, with the largest declines in North America, Russia, and Europe.
• China: Showed a 6.5% increase in gas demand, becoming the world's largest importer.
• Gas Production: Fell by 2.8% in 2020, with significant drops in Russia (-6%) and US (-2.5%).

Trade and Prices

• LNG Trade: Reached 40% of total traded natural gas, up from 38% in 2019. 484 bcm of LNG were traded in 2020, with over 70% imported by Asian countries.
• US LNG Exports: Increased by 59% in 2020.
• Crude Surplus/Deficit: Regional balances are provided, showing how supply and demand interact across areas.

Reserves and Production

• Global Natural Gas Reserves: As of December 31, 2020, stood at 1,740,264 million barrels (oil equivalent).
• Reserves/Production Ratio: Used to assess the sustainability of production levels.
• Production/Consumption Ratio: Indicates the balance between production and consumption in different regions.

Renewables Sector

Solar and Wind Power

• Solar Capacity: Expanded by 127 GW in 2020, bringing total global solar capacity to about the same level as wind capacity.
• Wind Capacity: Increased by 111 GW, reaching 733 GW globally. China led with 65% of new additions, followed by the US (13%).
• Solar Energy: Continued to dominate renewable capacity expansion.
• Concentrated Solar Power (CSP): A separate section provides data on CSP capacity and generation, with top 5 countries listed.

Notes and Methodology

• Data Sources: Include reputable institutions such as Enerdata, International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC.
• Data Definitions:
  • Reserves: Proven reserves as of December 31.
  • Annual Averages: Used for most metrics except reserves.
  • Calorific Value: Standardized to 40 MJ/cm for natural gas to ensure comparability across countries.
• Zero and Blank Entries: Zero indicates insignificant figures, while blank indicates data not available.
• Rounding: Totals may differ slightly from the sum of individual figures due to rounding.

Key Trends

• Energy Transition: The review emphasizes the ongoing shift towards renewables.
• Pandemic Impact: Significantly affected global energy demand and prices.
• LNG Growth: Continued to rise in share and trade volume, especially in Asia.
• Renewables Expansion: Solar and wind power saw substantial growth, with China leading in both categories.
• Production Quality: Became a key focus, with detailed classifications based on API gravity and sulphur content.