2021-10-12-IEA-世界能源评论2021_164页_38mb

World Energy Review 2021 Summary

Core Content

The World Energy Review 2021 is a comprehensive report that tracks the main changes in the global energy sector in 2020, with a focus on oil, natural gas, and renewables. It highlights the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy demand, supply, and prices, and provides detailed data on production, consumption, trade, and quality of oil and natural gas, as well as the growth of renewable energy sources like solar and wind.

Main Sections

1. Oil

• Supply and Demand:

  • World oil demand dropped by nearly 9% in 2020, the largest contraction since WWII.
  • World oil production fell by 6.5%, with all regions affected.
  • OPEC+ implemented record production cuts to address the demand drop.
  • Crude oil prices fell to their lowest in over 15 years, with Brent averaging $41.7/barrel and WTI dipping below $0/barrel for a day.

• Trade and Prices:

  • LNG trade reached 484 bcm, with LNG accounting for 40% of total traded natural gas (up from 38% in 2019).
  • US LNG exports increased by 59% in 2020.

• Production Quality:

  • Crude oil is categorized by API gravity and sulphur content into 10 quality levels.
  • API gravity is calculated using the formula: API = (141.5 / SG at 60°F) - 131.5.
  • Production by quality includes Ultra Light, Light & Sweet, Heavy & Sour, and others.
  • Production by gravity and sulphur content provides a breakdown of crude oil quality across regions.

• Refining Industry:

  • Refining capacity is categorized by Primary Capacity and Conversion Capacity (FCC equivalent).
  • Complexity ratios (FCC equivalent and Nelson Complexity Index) indicate the efficiency and value of refining processes.
  • Conversion units have equivalent factors that determine their contribution to refining capacity.

2. Natural Gas

• Supply and Demand:

  • Global natural gas demand fell by 1.5% in 2020, marking the first decline in a decade.
  • North America, Russia, and Europe saw the largest drops in demand.
  • China showed the strongest growth in natural gas demand with an increase of 6.5%.

• Production:

  • World natural gas production declined by 2.8% in 2020, primarily due to Russia (-6%) and US (-2.5%).
  • LNG accounted for 40% of total traded natural gas, with Asia importing over 70% of it.

• Trade and Prices:

  • LNG trade increased in 2020, with US being a major exporter.
  • Gas prices were affected by the pandemic, with LNG prices being calculated based on delivery periods.

3. Renewables

• Solar Energy:

  • Solar capacity expanded by 127 GW in 2020, bringing global capacity to ~733 GW.
  • China led the expansion with 65% of new solar installations.
  • Solar generation continued to grow, with China contributing 49 GW of new installations.

• Wind Energy:

  • Wind capacity expanded by 111 GW, doubling the 2019 growth.
  • Global wind capacity reached 733 GW, matching solar capacity.
  • China and the US were the top two countries for new wind installations, with China contributing 65%.

Key Information

• Crude oil demand fell sharply in 2020 due to the pandemic, leading to price collapses and production cuts.
• Natural gas experienced a 1.5% decline in demand, but LNG trade increased, with Asia being the primary importer.
• Renewables saw significant growth, with solar and wind leading the expansion.
• China was a key player in both solar and wind growth, as well as in natural gas demand.
• The US saw a 59% increase in LNG exports in 2020.
• Oil quality is classified based on API gravity and sulphur content, with Ultra Light and Heavy & Sour being the extremes.
• Refining complexity is measured using FCC equivalent and Nelson Complexity Index, which reflect the capability of refineries to produce high-value products.
• Data sources include Enerdata, EIA, ICIS Consulting, and Eni's internal estimates.

Summary of Key Figures

Notes and Methodology

• The report uses proven reserves as of 31 December for oil and natural gas.
• Annual averages are used for most other data.
• Blank spaces in tables indicate unavailable data, while zero indicates insignificant figures.
• Data sources include Eni, Enerdata, EIA, ICIS Consulting, and other official sources.
• LNG imports are calculated based on dry marketable equivalent after regasification.
• Calorific value is standardized at 40 MJ/cm for natural gas data comparability.
• Quality levels for oil are defined based on API gravity and sulphur content.