巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：大选追踪-20190808-67页_5mb

Argentina: Election Tracker Summary

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the 2019 Argentine presidential and provincial elections, focusing on the implications of the primary election results for the economy and political landscape. It outlines the potential scenarios based on the outcomes of the primary elections, the role of key provinces, and the political strategies of the candidates.

Main Points

• Self-Fulfilling Prophecies: The results of the primary elections could lead to different outcomes. A strong performance for President Mauricio Macri could result in positive economic dynamics, increasing his chances of winning. Conversely, a poor result could lead to an adverse feedback loop, boosting Alberto Fernandez's chances.

• Poll of Polls: As of 11 August 2019, the gap between Macri and Fernandez has narrowed. Macri is slightly ahead in a potential run-off, but the discrepancy in polls is significant. The model predicts Macri's chances are still below 50%.

• Economic Implications: The document uses the Confidence in Government Index (CGI) and a probit model to forecast election outcomes. It also highlights the impact of the real exchange rate and Google Trends data in predicting the CGI.

• Key Province: Buenos Aires Province (PBA): PBA is a critical region with 40% of the electorate. Winning this province is seen as a necessary condition for winning the general election. Macri needs to gain about 2 million more voters in PBA to secure a win.

• Capital-Province Divide: There is a significant divide between the capital (CABA) and PBA. Macri needs a strong majority in CABA but also must gain ground in PBA to win the general election.

• 2019 Election Calendar: Primaries are mandatory and serve as a proxy for the actual election. The first round is scheduled for 27 October, with a potential second round if no candidate secures a majority.

• Provincial Elections: Most provinces will hold elections alongside the presidential race. The document outlines the rules for re-election and the political affiliations of provincial governors.

• Political Parties and Candidates: The main political alliances include Cambiemos (Macri), Peronism (Fernandez and Kirchner), and others. The document also discusses the impact of other candidates on the primary outcomes.

• Voter Behavior and Polling Trends: The document highlights the shift in voter preferences, particularly in PBA, and the role of the CGI in predicting these trends. It also discusses the importance of the capital-province divide in shaping the election results.

Key Issues and Policy Proposals

• Fiscal Policy: Macri's coalition aims to sustain budget surpluses, reduce taxes, and provide tax breaks to boost investment and employment. Fernandez and Kirchner propose to reduce debt servicing payments and renegotiate the IMF deal.

• Dollar Policy: Macri supports the central bank's currency band policy and has liberalized the FX market. Fernandez and Kirchner advocate for a competitive dollar policy and criticize the current approach.

• IMF Deal: The current administration seeks to maintain the IMF deal, while opposition candidates propose renegotiation without additional costs to the people.

• Inflation and Economic Activity: Macri supports central bank autonomy to tackle inflation and reduce fiscal deficit. He also proposes to modernize labor laws to boost economic activity. Fernandez and Kirchner emphasize the need for economic growth to address inflation.

• Trade Policy: Macri aims to accelerate free trade negotiations, strengthen Mercosur, and reduce export and import tariffs. He aligns with US foreign policy.

Key Constituencies

• Buenos Aires Province: A significant stronghold for Kirchnerism, particularly in poorer areas like La Matanza. Macri's chances depend on securing support in this region.

• Capital Area: The capital, CABA, is a key region for Macri, with a high concentration of affluent voters. However, the metro areas show a preference for Fernandez.

Regional Analysis

• 2015 Election: The capital-province divide was evident, with Kirchnerism winning in PBA and Macri in CABA. The document uses this as a reference for the 2019 election.

• 2019 Primary Trends: The average difference between Fernandez and Macri has narrowed, with polarization increasing. Macri's net image has improved, reaching pre-crisis levels.

• Rejection Rates: The rejection rates of Macri and Kirchner have converged as polarization increases. Undecided voters show a higher rejection rate for Kirchner.

Conclusion

The document underscores the importance of the Buenos Aires Province in the 2019 election and highlights the potential for self-fulfilling prophecies based on primary results. It provides a detailed analysis of the political and economic implications, using a combination of polling data, economic indicators, and political strategies to forecast outcomes. The election tracker serves as a valuable tool for understanding the dynamics of the upcoming general election.