巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：大选追踪-20190221-40页_1mb

Argentina Election Tracker Summary

Core Content

This report provides an updated overview of the 2019 Argentine election landscape, including key dates, candidate polling data, and the political context. It outlines the national and provincial election processes, candidate standings, and public sentiment, particularly focusing on the main political parties and their economic policies.

Key Messages

• The report has been updated to include new poll results and data on the positive image and rejection rates of the main presidential candidates.
• Provincial election dates have been revised.
• The report is user-friendly and will be regularly updated to reflect the latest developments.

Election Calendar

• National Presidential Election: First round on October 27, 2019, with a potential second round if no candidate secures 45% of the valid votes or 40% with a 10% lead over the second-place candidate.
• Provincial Elections: Most provinces hold elections on October 27, 2019, except for some which have different dates. Buenos Aires has chosen not to separate its local elections from the presidential election, which could boost President Macri's re-election chances due to its large population.

National Election Process and Features

• Primaries: Mandatory, serving as a proxy for the actual election result.
• Fiscal Adjustment: A key component of the 2019 budget, which led to securing a USD57bn package from the IMF.
• Legislative Elections: Held on the same date as the first round of the presidential election, with one-third of the Senate and half of the lower chamber up for election.
• Alliances: Expected to be necessary due to the lack of a clear majority in Congress.

Provincial Elections Overview

• Governor Elections: Occur in all provinces except Corrientes and Santiago del Estero.
• Legislative Elections: Held in all provinces, with some exceptions.
• Re-election Rules: Varies by province, with some allowing indefinite re-election, others limited to one or two additional terms.
• Provincial Governors’ Political Affiliation: Includes data on current governors and their political parties.

Presidential Polls (December 2018)

• Mauricio Macri (Cambiemos): Leads with a strong approval rating.
• Cristina F. Kirchner (FPV): Remains among the most rejected candidates.
• Voting Intentions:
  • First Round: Macri and Kirchner lead with around 40% and 30% respectively.
  • Second Round: Macri is projected to win with around 40%.
• Undecided Voters: Account for a significant portion of the electorate.

Key Issues for the Electorate

• Confidence in Government: Low, with a significant portion of the population expressing dissatisfaction.
• Fiscal Adjustment: A major concern, with mixed public views on the 2019 budget proposal.
• Current Situation: Perceived as unstable or challenging.
• Future Expectations: Uncertain, with many voters concerned about economic and social issues.
• Main Problems: Include inflation, unemployment, and economic instability.

Main Political Parties

Cambiemos (Ruling Coalition)

• Leaders: Mauricio Macri (PRO), Alfredo Cornejo (UCR), Elisa Carrió (CC-ARI), María Eugenia Vidal (PRO).
• Economic Policies: Market liberalization, energy tariff subsidies reduction, fiscal adjustment.
• Congress Seats: 26 in Senate, 108 in Lower House.
• Public Image: Net positive, indicating strong support among voters.

Frente Unidad Ciudadana (Left-wing Opposition)

• Leader: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Partido de la Victoria).
• Economic Policies: Focus on protecting social rights, unity of citizens, and opposing Macri’s agenda.
• Congress Seats: 9 in Senate, 64 in Lower House.
• Public Image: Net positive, but with significant rejection rates for Kirchner.

Partido Justicialista (Peronist Party)

• Leaders: Miguel Pichetto and Diego Bossio.
• Economic Policies: Traditionally pro-labor, focused on social justice.
• Congress Seats: 23 in Senate, 37 in Lower House.
• Public Image: Mixed, with some leaders having strong support.

Current Congress Composition

• Cambiemos: 26 Senate seats, 108 Lower House seats.
• Unidad Ciudadana: 9 Senate seats, 64 Lower House seats.
• Partido Justicialista: 23 Senate seats, 37 Lower House seats.
• Other Parties: Remain in smaller numbers.

Key Risks and Considerations

• Non-Independent Research: This document is a marketing communication and not investment research.
• Conflicts of Interest: BNPP may have financial interests in the entities mentioned.
• Disclaimer: No liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.

Conclusion

The 2019 Argentine election is a critical moment for the country, with the potential for significant political and economic changes. The report highlights the importance of the primary results, the role of provincial elections, and the public perception of key political figures and parties. It serves as a useful tool for tracking developments and understanding the political landscape.