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Summary of MEXICO: ELECTION TRACKER (November 2017)

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the 2018 Mexican presidential election, highlighting the political landscape, key candidates, party dynamics, and public sentiment. It also outlines the election calendar, voter profiles, and the policy platforms of major parties and coalitions.

Main Points

• Election Context: The 2018 election is expected to be a competitive race with three main contenders: the left-wing AMLO (MORENA), the centre-left FRENTE (PAN-PRD coalition), and the PRI.
• Polls and Trends: AMLO is leading in most polls, with a strong base of support. However, the FRENTE and PRI also show competitiveness, especially in certain demographic segments.
• Voter Preferences: AMLO faces resistance from some voters, while PRI has high rejection rates due to its long tenure. The FRENTE appeals to middle-class voters.
• Party Dynamics: MORENA is a new party formed by AMLO in 2014, while PRI remains the largest party with significant state and municipal control. FRENTE is a coalition that may broaden its appeal but could face internal and external resistance.
• Candidate Selection: PRI is choosing its candidate through a council of elites and core supporters. FRENTE may use open primaries. Independents like Margarita Zavala and Jaime "El Bronco" are also in the running.
• Policy Platforms: MORENA focuses on public investment and social programs, FRENTE supports trade and economic reforms, and PRI aims to consolidate existing policies. All parties have distinct approaches to economic, social, and political issues.
• Methodology and Sources: Polls are conducted by various institutes and weighted by demographic factors. The document includes detailed methodologies and sources for each poll.

Key Information

01. POLL

• Current Polls: AMLO leads in most polls, with FRENTE and PRI close behind.
• Simulated Scenarios: AMLO is projected to win in most scenarios, with FRENTE second and PRI third.
• Voter Profile: AMLO's support is strongest among lower-income and older voters, while FRENTE appeals to the middle class.

02. GENERAL INFO

• Election Calendar: The election is set for July 1st, 2018.
• Electoral Structure:
  • President: 6-year term
  • Congress and Senate: All seats are up for election
• Party Composition:
  • PRI holds the most state and municipal governments
  • PAN and PRD form the FRENTE coalition
  • MORENA is a new left-wing party

03. BIOS & PARTIES

• AMLO (MORENA):
  • Strong support from left-leaning voters
  • Has a history of opposition to reforms, but may be more pragmatic in office
  • Founded MORENA in 2014 after leaving PRD
• FRENTE (PAN-PRD):
  • PAN and PRD coalition with potential to broaden appeal
  • Ricardo Anaya (PAN) and Miguel Mancera (PRD) are leading candidates
  • May face internal resistance
• PRI:
  • Has high rejection rates due to its long tenure
  • Potential candidates include José Antonio Meade and Osorio Chong
• Independents:
  • Margarita Zavala and Jaime "El Bronco" are notable candidates
  • Zavala has strong PAN support but lacks party structure
  • "El Bronco" has high approval ratings in Nuevo León

04. HISTORICAL SERIES

• Past Elections:
  • 2006: Felipe Calderón (PAN), López Obrador (PRD), Roberto Madrazo (PRI)
  • 2012: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), López Obrador (PRD), Josefina Mota (PAN)
• Current Trends: AMLO's popularity is growing, while PRI and PAN face significant challenges.

Key Issues and Concerns

• Insecurity: A major concern for voters, with some linking it to PRI policies
• Corruption: Ongoing investigations include officials from all parties
• Economy: Inflation has risen, but unemployment is near lows
• NAFTA: 7 out of 10 Mexicans want to continue in NAFTA
• Economic Crisis Perception: 8 out of 10 Mexicans believe the country is in an economic crisis

Conclusion

The 2018 Mexican presidential election is expected to be highly competitive, with AMLO leading in polls. While the political landscape is complex, the document suggests that AMLO's potential for pragmatic governance could lead to a more balanced policy approach despite his left-wing platform. The FRENTE and PRI are also strong contenders, with their own challenges and appeal. Voter preferences and media exposure play a significant role in shaping the election outcome.