【国际能源署】2023和2024年电力市场展望_44页_2mb

Electricity Market Report Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an update on global electricity market trends for 2023 and 2024, highlighting changes in demand, supply, emissions, and prices. It also discusses the impact of weather and policy developments on the energy sector, particularly in the European Union, China, India, and the United States.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Electricity Demand

• 2023 Growth: Global electricity demand growth is expected to ease to slightly less than 2%, down from 2.3% in 2022 and below the 2.4% average of the 2015–2019 period.
• 2024 Forecast: Demand growth is projected to rebound to 3.3% in 2024 as economic conditions improve.
• Regional Trends:
  • China: Expected to grow by 5.3% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024.
  • India: Projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.5% over the outlook period.
  • EU and US: Both are expected to see declines in 2023, with the EU declining by 3% and the US by 1.7%.
  • Japan: Expected to record a 3% fall in electricity demand in 2023.

Renewable Energy and Fossil Fuel Generation

• Renewables: Expected to meet all additional electricity demand in 2023 and 2024.
• Coal: Declines in coal-fired generation are becoming structural, particularly in the EU and US, while China and India are expected to see increases.
• Hydropower: Capacity factors have declined over the past decade, reducing hydropower output by about 240 TWh annually. This is a growing concern, especially in regions like Europe, Brazil, and China that have experienced droughts.

Emissions from Power Generation

• Global Emissions: Expected to dip slightly through 2024, with the EU accounting for 40% of the total decline, excluding China and India.
• Asia: Emissions increases in China and India are offset by declines in other regions.
• Emission Intensity: Set to fall at a faster pace due to the shift toward renewables and gas replacing coal.

Wholesale Electricity Prices

• Elevated Prices: Remain high in many regions, although some have seen declines from record highs.
• Europe: Prices halved from 2022 peaks, but still more than double 2019 levels.
• United States: Prices are nearing 2019 levels.
• Negative Prices: Signal inflexibility in the system, urging investment in storage and demand-side flexibility.

Weather Impact on Power Systems

• Cooling Demand: Increasing due to more frequent extreme summer temperatures, placing strain on power systems.
• Air Conditioners: More households in emerging economies are adopting them, increasing cooling demand.
• System Preparedness: Crucial to maintain backup generation, encourage demand management, and invest in grid and storage infrastructure.

Energy-Intensive Industry in Europe

• Production Declines: Energy-intensive industries such as aluminium (-12%), crude steel (-10%), paper (-6%), and chemicals (-5%) have significantly reduced or ceased production.
• Industry Relocation: Companies like Volkswagen, BASF, and Varel are relocating or halting investments due to high energy costs and geopolitical pressures.
• EU Policy: The Temporary Crisis and Transition Framework allows for state aid to support energy-intensive industries, though the long-term viability of these sectors is uncertain.

Future of EU Energy-Intensive Industry

• Crossroads: The EU faces a critical decision on how to support energy-intensive industries.
• Options:
  • Minimal Aid: Could shift the economy to high-value goods but increase vulnerability to geopolitical tensions.
  • Targeted Aid: Offers fiscal prudence and control over key sectors.
  • Extensive Subsidies: Preserves industry and jobs but burdens consumers and taxpayers.
  • Decarbonisation: Aligns with climate goals but requires significant upfront costs.

Conclusion

The global electricity market is undergoing significant transformation, with demand growth slowing in advanced economies and rising in emerging ones. Renewable energy is set to dominate supply, while fossil fuel generation faces structural declines. The EU's energy-intensive industries are under pressure due to high costs and policy challenges, and the increasing demand for cooling poses a growing threat to power system reliability. The report underscores the need for flexible systems, investment in infrastructure, and strategic policy decisions to navigate these challenges.