国际能源署-电力市场报告——2023年更新-2023年和2024年展望（英）-44页_2mb

Electricity Market Report Update: Outlook for 2023 and 2024 (IEA Summary)

According to the IEA, global electricity demand growth is expected to moderate in 2023 due to economic slowdowns, with a revised forecast of 1.9% growth after an earlier 2.6% estimate, slower than the 2.4% average from 2015–2019. Growth is projected to rebound to 3.3% in 2024. Advanced economies (EU, US) face demand declines due to energy costs, affordability issues, and non-energy-intensity related factors, while emerging economies like China and India continue to drive demand growth.

• China electricity demand is expected to grow 5.3% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024.
• India will record an 8.8% increase in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
• The EU experienced a 3.2% decline in 2022 and is expected to drop another 3% in 2023 before a modest 1.7% rebound in 2024.

Table: Year-on-Year Electricity Demand in Selected Regions (2019–2024 Forecast)

Renewable energy generation is expected to surpass coal power by 2024 under favorable weather conditions, driven by global installations. Renewables alone are set to cover all electricity demand growth in 2023 and 2024, with renewables’ share in global electricity supply reaching over one-third by 2024 for the first time.

Table: Global Electricity Generation by Source (2014–2024 Forecast)

Wholesale electricity prices remain elevated in many regions despite recent declines from record highs. European prices, though halved since 2022, are more than double 2019 levels. The US and Australia returned closer to pre-pandemic levels, while India’s prices remain 80% higher than in 2019.

• Negative prices on electricity markets doubled in regions like Germany and the Netherlands in 2023, signaling over-generation and system flexibility issues. Market operators lowered the threshold to EUR -500/MWh to ensure stability.

Table: Growth in Electricity Generation by Source (2023–2024 Forecast)

Global emissions from electricity generation plateaued in 2023, with a slight decline due to reduced fossil fuel use. The EU accounts for 40% of this total decline, primarily through coal-to-gas switching and renewable expansion.

Table: Growth in Selected Regions (2019–2024)

Europe’s energy-intensive industries are under pressure due to high energy costs and international support programs (e.g., US Inflation Reduction Act). Several companies have curtailed production or shut down plants, raising concerns about supply chain resilience. The EU’s industrial competitiveness is threatened, needing targeted aid strategies or green transformation efforts.

Cooling demand is increasing globally, particularly in developing countries with lower air conditioner penetration. Extreme temperatures strain power systems, especially during heatwaves. Policies including higher efficiency standards for ACs and diversified electricity generation will be crucial.

Table: Global Electricity Demand Breakdown (2021–2024)