2011年-世界发展银行全球_Climate_Resilient_Ningbo_Project___Local_Resilience_Action_Plan_Volume_1_Final_Report_139页_2mb

Summary of the World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project

Core Content

The World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project is a pilot initiative aimed at enhancing Ningbo's ability to prepare for, respond to, recover from, and reorganize in the face of climate change impacts and natural disasters. The project applies a comprehensive Urban Resilience Methodology to assess current and future climate-related risks, evaluate the city's vulnerabilities across various sectors, and develop targeted recommendations to build resilience. The Local Resilience Action Plan (LRAP) is the outcome of this process, intended to be a 'living document' that evolves with the city's development and new information.

Main Objectives

• Holistically understand climate change-induced urban risks
• Provide prioritized recommendations to increase resilience
• Develop and implement a Local Resilience Action Plan (LRAP) for Ningbo
• Support the World Bank's broader Climate Resilient Cities (CRC) Program

Key Findings and Assessments

1. Climate Hazards in Ningbo

• Temperature:

  • Average temperature rise of 0.9°C per decade since the 1950s
  • Expected to increase by 2.3°C by 2050
  • Inland areas like Ninghai will face higher temperature increases

• Rainfall:

  • Total precipitation is expected to remain relatively stable, but intensity will increase
  • R10 (days with >10mm rainfall) and R5D (maximum rainfall over 5 days) are used as key indicators
  • CDD (Consecutive Dry Days) is used to assess drought

• Drought:

  • Drought frequency is increasing
  • Cixi is particularly vulnerable

• Heat Waves:

  • Urban areas are more susceptible
  • Expected to increase in frequency

• Floods:

  • Flooding is more common in Ninghai and the city center
  • Expected to intensify

• Tropical Cyclones:

  • Typhoon risk (30-year return period) is expected to increase by 48% by 2030
  • Infrastructure risk is expected to rise by 125%
  • Xiangshan experiences more violent winds and storms

• Sea Level Rise:

  • Current rate: 3.3mm/year
  • Projected rise by 2030: 16–34cm in the northern part of the Yangtze River Delta
  • Projected rise by 2050: 10–80cm
  • Low-lying areas like Cixi and urban areas will be most vulnerable

2. City Vulnerability Assessment

• People:

  • Population is growing, urbanizing, and aging
  • Elderly and floating populations are particularly vulnerable
  • Healthcare infrastructure and services are underdeveloped
  • Climate change awareness and education among officials and the public is low

• Infrastructure:

  • The city's transport network is heavily reliant on motor vehicles, leading to pollution and congestion
  • Water supply systems are not fully optimized
  • Waste management and energy security are underdeveloped
  • Infrastructure is aging and unable to meet future demands
  • Drainage systems in areas like the Three River City District are inadequate

• Economy:

  • Ningbo has one of the highest GDPs among Chinese cities
  • Rural areas like Ninghai are less economically developed
  • Food security is a concern due to fewer farmers and increased imports
  • Energy-intensive industries (petrochemicals, steel, shipbuilding) are key economic drivers but not yet integrated with climate resilience strategies
  • The port, a major economic asset, has only addressed typhoons, not other climate risks

• Environment:

  • Increasing haze days and water pollution
  • Low per capita green space, which is crucial for air quality and flood mitigation
  • Green space targets are weak compared to other cities

• Government:

  • A Climate Change Taskforce was established but lacks clear mission and responsibilities
  • Coordination between departments is inconsistent
  • Climate change is not sufficiently integrated into policy and decision-making
  • Limited resources and training in climate change modeling and monitoring

Gap Analysis

• Socio-economic damage from climate events is high in Ningbo
• Government actions are primarily pre-disaster and lack post-disaster planning
• Most policies and programs address climate change only partially or not at all
• The City Master Plan 2020 will expose more residents and buildings to 50-year flood zones
• Emergency plans do not account for climate change

Key Recommendations

• Strengthen Climate Change Modelling:

  • Improve understanding of hazards and vulnerabilities
  • Led by Ningbo Meteorology Bureau
  • Medium to long-term, complex and costly

• Increase Research on Climate Change Impacts on Health:

  • Address health risks from climate change
  • Led by Ningbo Public Health Bureau
  • Moderate complexity and cost

• Determine Climate Change Taskforce Mission and Formal Role:

  • Clarify responsibilities and roles
  • Ensure stakeholder involvement
  • Low cost and can be implemented soon

• Implement Port Resilience Plan:

  • Develop a comprehensive climate plan for the port
  • Address typhoon risks and other hazards
  • Led by Port Authority and Ningbo Port Cooperation Ltd

• Promote Greening:

  • Increase green space to improve air quality and reduce flood risks
  • Joint effort between Urban Management Bureau and Environmental Protection Bureau
  • Moderate cost and complexity

Conclusion

The Local Resilience Action Plan is a critical step towards making Ningbo more resilient to climate change. It outlines a strategic approach to address vulnerabilities in various sectors, including people, infrastructure, economy, environment, and government. The plan is designed to be iterative and adaptable, allowing for continuous updates and improvements as the city develops and new data becomes available. The World Bank and local stakeholders aim to work together to implement the LRAP and ensure Ningbo's long-term sustainability and resilience in the face of climate change.