20150828-Maybank_KERPL-Expect_better_2H_on_new_launches_11页_774kb

报告摘要

Thailand Property Market Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the Thailand property market, focusing on the performance and outlook of key companies in the sector for the second half of 2015 (2H15) and into 2016 (1H16). It outlines the current market sentiment, revenue and sales forecasts, and investment ratings for several major developers.

Main Points

Market Sentiment: The property market is expected to improve in 2H15, particularly in 4Q15, due to increased transfers and new launches. The August 17 bombing affected 3Q15, leading to a softer quarter, but the recovery momentum is anticipated to continue into 1H16.
Company Ratings:
- Neutral: Overall market remains neutral.
- Top Picks: QH and PS are highlighted as top picks for 2H15.
- Buy: AP and LPN are rated as Buy.
- Hold: SPALI and LH are maintained as Hold.
Recovery Momentum: The recovery in the property market is expected to persist into 1H16, driven by delayed transfers from FY15 and new launches.

Key Companies and Their Outlook

Quality Houses (QH)

Revenue and Profit: Revised down FY15 revenue to THB21.3b (-7.3%) and core net profit to THB3.0b (-23.7%).
Performance in 2H15: Expected to generate THB12.1b in revenue, with 55% from detached houses, 29% from condos, and 16% from townhouses.
Strengths: Clear expansion plans, strong condo backlog, and focus on premium townhouses.
Investment View: Maintained BUY rating with a 12M target price (TP) of THB4.
Valuation: Current P/E = 5.7, P/BV = 1.2.

Pruksa Real Estate (PS)

Performance in 2H15: Expected to transfer 8 condominium projects valued at THB19.4b, with a strong presales backlog of THB20.5b.
FY15 Revenue: Likely to achieve the full-year target of THB47.4b, with 1H15 revenue of THB21.8b and presales of THB23.8b.
Investment View: Maintained BUY rating with a TP of THB37.5.
Valuation: Current P/E = 7.2, P/BV = 1.5.

AP (Thailand)

Performance in 2H15: Expected to secure THB7.6b in revenue, with 1H15 revenue of THB10.6b and presales of THB17.3b.
Investment View: Maintained BUY rating with a TP of THB8.14.
Valuation: Current P/E = 6.1, P/BV = 1.0.

L.P.N. Development (LPN)

Performance in 2H15: Plans to launch 10 projects valued at THB15.2b (condo), THB5.5b (townhouse), and THB2.7b (detached houses).
Investment View: Maintained BUY rating with a TP of THB22.92.
Valuation: Current P/E = 7.6, P/BV = 1.4.

Supalai (SPALI)

Performance in 2H15: Expected to see improved recovery momentum, with a strong backlog and higher margin projects.
Investment View: Maintained HOLD rating with a TP of THB26.48.
Valuation: Current P/E = 5.6, P/BV = 1.3.

Land & Houses (LH)

Performance in 2H15: Presales are likely to miss the FY15 target due to weak demand and potential project delays.
Investment View: Maintained HOLD rating with a TP of THB10.5.
Valuation: Current P/E = 10.3, P/BV = 2.0.

Summary of Market Trends

Condo Sales: Condos continue to be a significant driver of the market, with QH and PS leading in this segment.
New Launches: Delayed launches in 3Q15 are expected to be offset by a surge in 4Q15, with a focus on high-value projects.
Operating Margins: Operating profit margins are expected to be lower by $2 - 3%$ due to rising opex and delayed revenue.
Investor Sentiment: Despite the challenges, the overall sentiment is expected to improve, especially in 4Q15 and 1H16.

Analyst and Contact Information

Analyst: Maria Lapiz
Contact: (66) 2257 0250 | maria.l@maybank-ke.co.th

Research Offices

Regional Research Heads: Includes Sadiq Currimbohoy, Wong Chew Hann, and others across different regions.
Thailand Office: Maria Lapiz is the head of institutional research in Thailand.

Disclaimer

This report is for general information and not intended as investment advice.
It does not guarantee future performance or outcomes.
MKE disclaims liability for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on this report.
Forward-looking statements are subject to change based on market conditions and new information.