20131028-Maybank_KERPL-Del_Monte_Pacific_Still_on-course_for_a_good_year_11页_774kb
报告摘要
Del Monte Pacific Summary
Core Content
Del Monte Pacific is a company that engages in the growing, processing, and selling of canned and fresh pineapples, pineapple concentrate, tropical mixed fruit, and tomato-based products under the Del Monte and S&W brand names. The company's financial performance for the third quarter of 2013 (3Q13) showed that profit was in line with expectations, while sales growth in the Philippines was a miss. However, higher-than-expected operating margins offset this weakness. The company is set to maintain a BUY rating, with a target price of SGD1.25 (PHP43.50), based on a 15x FY15F combined entity valuation.
Key Financials
- Share Price: SGD0.87 (PHP30.40)
- Target Price: SGD1.25 (PHP43.50)
- Shares Issued (m): 1,296.6
- Market Cap (USD m): 912.7
- 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): 0.4
- Free float (%): 33
- Major Shareholder: Nutri-Asia (67%)
Key Indicators
- ROE (%): 13.2
- Net Gearing (%): 65
- BVPS/shr (USD): 0.20
- Interest Cover (x): 9.1
Performance Overview
- 3Q13 Revenue: SGD127.0 million
- 3Q13 Net Profit: SGD7.2 million
- Recurring Net Profit: SGD8.3 million
- EPS (SG cents): 0.77
- DPS (SG cents): 0
- PER (x): 25.9
- EV/EBITDA (x): 14.2
- Dividend Yield (%): 2.9
- P/BV (x): 3.4
- ROE (%): 13.2
- ROA (%): 6.7
3Q13 Results Summary
| FYE Dec (USD m) | 3Q13 | 2Q13 | 3Q12 | % YoY | % QoQ | MBKE FY2013F | YTD as % of FY forecast | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 127.0 | 121.0 | 116.6 | 9% | 5% | 525.0 | 64% | Sales seasonally stronger in 4th quarter |
| Cost of sales | (95.3) | (92.7) | (87.1) | 9% | 3% | (398.4) | 64% | - |
| Gross profit | 31.7 | 28.3 | 29.5 | 7% | 12% | 126.6 | 63% | - |
| SG&A | (18.5) | (18.2) | (16.3) | 14% | 2% | (73.5) | 66% | - |
| Operating profit | 13.1 | 10.1 | 13.2 | 0% | 29% | 53.0 | 59% | - |
| Net finance | (2.0) | (2.0) | (1.0) | 102% | 1% | (6.8) | 63% | - |
| JV & Associates | (1.2) | (1.4) | (1.5) | -19% | -12% | (4.0) | 96% | Start-up losses at India JV |
| Pretax profit | 9.9 | 6.8 | 10.7 | -7% | 46% | 42.2 | 55% | - |
| Taxation | (2.8) | (0.8) | (2.5) | 12% | 270% | (8.8) | 63% | - |
| Minorities | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -28% | -20% | 0.5 | 53% | - |
| Reported Net income | 7.2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | -13% | 18% | 33.9 | 53% | - |
| Recurring NP | 8.9 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 7% | 22% | 33.9 | 61% | Adding back USD2.9m in one-off M&A transaction and dual-listing costs |
| EPS (US cents) | 0.55 | 0.47 | 0.77 | -29% | 17% | 2.6 | 55% | - |
| DPS (USD cents) | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | na | -100% | 2.0 | 32% | - |
Key Highlights
- Philippines Sales Weakness: 3Q13 sales in the Philippines were weaker than expected, likely due to inventory overstocking from previous promotional campaigns. However, this is expected to correct in the 4Q13, which is historically the strongest quarter for the company.
- Recurring Earnings: Recurring net profit for 3Q13 was SGD8.3 million, which is up from the previous quarter.
- Operating Margin: Operating margin for 3Q13 was 10.3%, which is higher than 3Q12's 8.0% when one-off expenses are excluded.
- Transformational Deal: The company is in the process of a USD1.675 billion deal to acquire Del Monte Foods (DMF), which is expected to be accretive to earnings. The deal is funded through a combination of existing credit lines, preference shares, new common shares, major shareholder loans, and debt financing.
- Valuation Metrics: Post-transaction, the company's PER is expected to be 21.5, and EV/EBITDA is 10.4, both of which are considered favorable compared to current levels.
Case Scenarios for FY15F
| Case Scenario | Revenue (USD m) | EBITDA (USD m) | Net Income (USD m) | EPS (USD) | Profit to Ordinary Shareholders (USD m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1,830.0 | 178.0 | 35.6 | 4.2 | 50.6 |
| Base | 1,830.0 | 241.0 | 74.6 | 6.8 | 102.2 |
| Bull | 2,104.5 | 277.2 | 96.6 | 8.2 | 124.2 |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Share Price (Icl curr) | Target Price (Icl curr) | Market Cap (USD m) | PER 2014E (x) | P/B 2014E (x) | ROE 2014E (%) | Div Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUPER GROUP | SUPER SP | Buy | 4.30 | 6.00 | 1,939 | 20.2 | 5.2 | 22 | 2.5 |
| YEO HIAP SENG | YHS SP | Hold | 2.54 | 2.55 | 1,179 | 45.4 | 1.9 | 8 | 3.3 |
| DEL MONTE PACIFIC | DELM SP | Buy | 0.91 | 1.30 | 949 | 22.0 | 3.6 | 16 | 2.8 |
| PETRA FOODS | PETRA SP | NR | 3.50 | NA | 1,729 | 27.9 | 5.5 | 14 | 2.4 |
| UNIVERSAL ROBINA | URC PM | Buy | 126.10 | 154.00 | 6,384 | 23.0 | 5.7 | 21 | 1.8 |
| PEPSI-COLA (PHIL) | PIP PM | Buy | 4.90 | 6.05 | 420 | 17.5 | 2.6 | 15 | 2.9 |
| RFM CORP | RFM PM | Buy | 5.55 | 6.05 | 407 | 15.9 | 2.6 | 12 | 1.1 |
Financial Analysis
- Gearing Analysis: Post-transaction, the company's net debt/equity ratio is 2.2, with interest cover of 3.4 and net debt/EBITDA of 6.4.
- Cash Flow: Operating cash flow for 3Q13 was SGD42.1 million, with a free cash flow of SGD17.1 million.
- Balance Sheet: Total assets for 3Q13 were SGD520.4 million, with total liabilities of SGD260.7 million and shareholder's equity of SGD262.1 million.
Conclusion
Del Monte Pacific is on track for a strong year, despite a weaker 3Q13. The company's performance is expected to improve in the 4Q13, with the transformational deal to acquire DMF being a key driver of future growth. The company's financial ratios and valuation metrics are considered favorable, and the BUY rating is maintained with a target price of SGD1.25 (PHP43.50). Investors are advised to await further details on the transaction, particularly regarding funding strategy and cost.
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
