20151016-Maybank_KERPL-Sep15__Accelerating_loan_growth_11页_774kb

报告摘要

China Banks Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the Chinese banking sector in September 2015, focusing on monetary statistics, loan growth, deposit trends, and bank performance metrics. It outlines the expectations for the banking sector in 2015 and offers investment recommendations.

Main Points

M2 Growth

The PBOC is expected to meet the 2015 M2 growth target of 12%.
M2 growth was at 13.1% YoY in September 2015, matching the Bloomberg consensus forecast.
The average M2 growth for the first nine months of 2015 was 11.9%, which is close to the target.
Foreign reserves declined by USD43.3 billion in September 2015, but the PBOC injected liquidity of CNY52.1 billion to sustain M2 growth.

Deposit Trends

Non-bank financial institutions' deposits fell by CNY1.2 trillion in September 2015, continuing a trend of decline.
Individual and corporate deposits increased by CNY766 billion and CNY228 billion respectively in September 2015, indicating a shift from brokers to banks.
Total deposits (excluding non-bank FI deposits) grew by CNY0.9 trillion in September 2015, suggesting reduced deposit competition in the near term.

Loan Growth

Loan growth to the real economy accelerated in September 2015, reaching CNY1.04 trillion MoM, up from CNY776 billion in August.
The uptrend in loan growth is expected to continue, leading to an estimated total of CNY11.4 trillion for 2015.
Loan growth was concentrated in residential mortgages, infrastructure, and SMEs.
The shift from discounted bills to short-term corporate loans is noted, with short-term corporate loans increasing by CNY217 billion in September 2015.

Investment Recommendations

Maintain Overweight rating for the banking sector.
Top picks include BOC, CCB, BOCOM, and CQRB.
Buy recommendations are given for BOC, BOCOM, CCB, BOCQ, and CQRB.
Sell recommendations are given for CMB and CMSB.

Key Information

Financial Summary

Bank	BB Code	Rating	SP (HKD)	TP (HKD)	Upside (%)	Net Profit (2014)	Net Profit (2015F)	Net Profit (2016F)	PER (2014)	PER (2015F)	PER (2016F)	P/BV (2014)	P/BV (2015F)	P/BV (2016F)	ROE (%)	Yield (%)
ABC	1288 HK	HOLD	3.17	3.40	7.2	179,461	177,970	192,443	4.6	4.7	4.5	0.8	0.8	0.7	19.6	7.2
BOC	3988 HK	BUY	3.70	4.55	22.9	169,595	171,844	193,561	5.0	5.1	4.6	0.8	0.7	0.7	17.0	6.5
BOCOM	3328 HK	BUY	5.79	7.65	32.1	65,850	65,618	73,478	5.2	5.3	4.9	0.7	0.7	0.6	14.8	5.6
BOCQ	1963 HK	BUY	5.69	8.00	40.7	2,827	3,282	4,419	4.3	4.2	3.8	0.8	0.7	0.6	19.2	6.0
CCB	939 HK	BUY	5.70	7.05	23.7	227,830	236,818	266,183	5.0	4.9	4.5	0.9	0.8	0.8	19.7	6.8
CMB	3968 HK	SELL	20.45	14.90	(27.1)	55,911	56,383	69,374	7.3	7.5	6.3	1.3	1.2	1.1	19.3	4.0
CMSB	1988 HK	SELL	7.82	6.55	(16.3)	44,546	39,806	47,839	4.7	6.1	5.2	0.9	0.8	0.7	20.3	2.3
CNCB	998 HK	HOLD	5.00	5.60	12.1	40,692	39,496	47,639	4.6	5.0	4.3	0.7	0.7	0.6	16.8	6.0
CQRB	3618 HK	BUY	4.73	6.85	44.8	6,793	7,693	9,696	5.1	4.6	3.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	17.5	5.3
HUSB	3698 HK	HOLD	3.67	3.55	(3.3)	5,673	5,224	6,907	5.7	6.3	4.9	0.9	0.8	0.8	16.7	5.5
ICBC	1398 HK	HOLD	5.00	5.15	3.0	275,811	267,049	293,960	5.1	5.4	5.0	0.9	0.9	0.8	19.9	6.1

Loan Growth and Mix

Loan growth to the real economy increased from CNY776 billion in August to CNY1.04 trillion in September 2015.
Residential mortgages, infrastructure loans, and SME loans showed stronger growth.
Lending to non-bank FIs was limited, while short-term corporate loans increased significantly.
The shift from discounted bills to short-term corporate loans is noted, with short-term corporate loans rising by CNY217 billion.

Deposit Growth

Total deposits (excluding non-bank FI deposits) increased by CNY0.9 trillion in September 2015, indicating a recovery in deposit growth.
The shift from brokers to banks continued, with individual and corporate deposits rebounding.

Asset Quality

NPLs (Non-Performing Loans) increased across all bank types in Q2 2015, but the growth rate was relatively stable.
The NPL ratio rose slightly for most banks, indicating a need for increased provisioning.
The provision-to-loan ratio increased for all bank types, suggesting improved loan quality management.
The CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) remained stable, with a slight decline for some banks.

NIM and Cost Control

NIM (Net Interest Margin) is expected to remain stable in 2H15 compared to 2Q15.
Cost-income ratios are under control, with a slight increase in some banks.

Key Figures and Trends

M2 Growth: 13.1% YoY in September 2015, aligning with the target.
Loan Growth: Increased to CNY1.04 trillion MoM, up from CNY776 billion in August.
Deposit Growth: Individual and corporate deposits increased, while non-bank FI deposits declined.
NPLs: Increased for all bank types, but at a slower rate compared to previous quarters.
Provision-to-loan Ratio: Increased for all bank types, indicating a proactive approach to loan quality.
CAR: Slightly declined for some banks, but remained stable overall.
EPS Growth: Expected to be 0.4% for H-share banks in 2016, driven by healthy loan growth and net fees.

Conclusion

The Chinese banking sector is expected to meet its M2 growth target for 2015, with a rebound in loan growth to the real economy and a shift in deposit flows from non-bank financial institutions to banks. The analysis suggests that banks may face limited NIM pressure in the second half of 2015, and the top picks for investment include BOC, CCB, BOCOM, and CQRB. The financial metrics indicate a mixed performance, with some banks showing strong growth while others are underperforming. Overall, the banking sector is viewed as Overweight, with a focus on maintaining healthy loan growth and net fees.

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