20181205-招商证券_香港_-Nov_sales_beat_but_beware_of_expectation_shortfall_in_2019_6页_1mb
报告摘要
China Property Industry Report Summary
Core Content
This report discusses the performance of China's property sector in November 2018, the impact of credit policy adjustments, and the outlook for 2019 sales targets. It also provides investment ratings for key developers and highlights potential risks and opportunities.
Key Findings
-
November 2018 Sales Performance:
Key developers saw a significant increase in contracted sales, with a +21% MoM and +64% YoY growth, which is notable given that November is typically a low season for property sales.
In the first 11 months of 2018, key developers' sales grew by +49% YoY, with a +51% YoY growth in gross floor area (GFA) and a -2% YoY drop in average selling price (ASP). -
Credit Policy Adjustments:
A refinancing window was opened in November 2018, allowing over 40 developers to raise debt, both onshore and offshore. This includes companies like Sunshine City (000671 SZ, NR), CFLD (600340 SH, NR), and Vanke (2202 HK, BUY).
The total onshore debt raised reached RMB57.5bn, and offshore USD bond issuance amounted to RMB30.5bn, indicating a supportive policy environment for developers. -
2019 Sales Target Outlook:
Some developers are expected to tune down their 2019 sales targets due to the expectation shortfall. Developers that had already achieved their 2018 sales targets or were close to them may face pressure to adjust their expectations.
Developers like Ronshine (3301 HK, NR) and Future Land (1030 HK, NR), which reported high growth in 2018, are likely to experience a substantial slowdown in growth in 2019.
Investment Recommendations
- Sector Rating: NEUTRAL, due to tight policy and market headwinds in NT.
- Top Picks:
- Vanke (2202 HK, BUY): Strong financials and good track record of earnings growth.
- COLI (688 HK, BUY): Prudent financial management and sustainable growth.
- Aoyuan (3883 HK, BUY): Decent landbank in the GBA region.
- Key Upside Risks: Policy relaxation.
- Key Downside Risks: Further tightening of policies, economic slowdown.
Financial Data Overview
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Current Price (HK$) | Target Price (HK$) | Price Target (+/-) (%) | NAV (HK$) | NAV Discount (%) | Adj. P/E (2018E) | Adj. P/E (2019E) | Dividend Yield (2018E) | Dividend Yield (2019E) | Net Gearing (2018E) | Net Gearing (2019E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanke | 2202 HK | BUY | 27.4 | 36.0 | 31 | 32 | 40 | 32 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 12 | 18 |
| COLI | 688 HK | BUY | 26.9 | 32.0 | 19 | 23 | 35 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 37 | 39 |
| Evergrande | 3333 HK | BUY | 25.0 | 36.0 | 44 | 41 | 42 | 44 | 44 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 103 | 71 |
| Country Garden | 2007 HK | BUY | 9.7 | 13.0 | 34 | 37 | 59 | 34 | 15 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 53 | 44 |
| Longfor | 960 HK | BUY | 22.2 | 28.0 | 26 | 28 | 47 | 26 | 31 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 46 | 45 |
| Sunac | 1918 HK | BUY | 26.1 | 36.0 | 38 | 42 | 45 | 38 | 35 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 186 | 121 |
| Agile | 3383 HK | NEUTRAL | 10.2 | 10.0 | -2 | 20 | 49 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 123 | 109 |
| KWG | 1813 HK | BUY | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6 | 15 | 53 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 68 | 77 |
| Times | 1233 HK | BUY | 7.3 | 10.8 | 47 | 18 | 59 | 4.4 | 47 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 58 | 67 |
| Aoyuan | 3883 HK | BUY | 4.9 | 7.2 | 47 | 12 | 59 | 9.0 | 47 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 51 | 73 |
Sector Performance
| Period | Absolute Return (%) | Relative Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | 4.4 | 1.5 |
| 6m | (14.7) | (2.6) |
| 12m | (5.7) | 0.7 |
Investment Ratings
| Rating | Definition |
|---|---|
| OVERWEIGHT | Expect sector to outperform the market over the next 12 months |
| NEUTRAL | Expect sector to perform in-line with the market over the next 12 months |
| UNDERWEIGHT | Expect sector to underperform the market over the next 12 months |
| Rating | Definition |
|---|---|
| BUY | Expect stock to generate 10%+ return over the next 12 months |
| NEUTRAL | Expect stock to generate +10% to -10% over the next 12 months |
| SELL | Expect stock to generate loss of 10%+ over the next 12 months |
Related Research
- China Property - Defensive valuation; eyeing on recovery in 2H19E (NEUTRAL) - 2018/11/30
- China Property - Old village redevelopment may speed up in Guangzhou (NEUTRAL) - 2018/11/22
- China Property - A good timing to own the GBA plays (NEUTRAL) - 2018/11/19
Analyst and Regulatory Disclosures
- Analyst Disclosure: The views in the report accurately reflect the analysts' personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation tied to specific recommendations.
- Regulatory Disclosure: Information is provided for reference only and is subject to change. It is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
- Disclaimer: The report is prepared by China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. and is not intended for distribution to the general public. It is subject to legal restrictions and is only available to certain investors.
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