20181205-招商证券_香港_-China_Property__Nov_sales_beat_but_beware_of_expectation_shortfall_in_2019_6页_1mb

报告摘要

China Property Industry Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report from China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. provides an analysis of the China property sector in late 2018, highlighting key trends in sales performance, credit policy adjustments, and investment outlook.

Sales Performance in November 2018

Key developers' sales accelerated in November 2018, registering +21% MoM and +64% YoY growth.
Despite being a traditional low season for sales, the increase was attributed to fine-tuned credit policies that eased developers' funding pressures.
In the first 11 months of 2018, key developers' sales grew by +49% YoY, with GFA (Gross Floor Area) increasing by +51% and ASP (Average Selling Price) declining by -2%.

2019 Sales Target Expectations

16 out of 23 key developers recorded >90% run rate in 11M18, with 4 developers already achieving their 2018 sales targets.
However, some developers may face challenges in meeting their 2018 targets, potentially leading to lower-than-expected 2019 sales targets.
Developers like Ronshine (3301 HK) and Future Land (1030 HK), which showed high growth in 2018, may experience a substantial slowdown in 2019.

Credit Policy Adjustments

A refinancing window opened in November 2018, allowing over 40 developers to raise debt (both onshore and offshore).
Total onshore debt raised reached RMB57.5bn, while offshore USD bond issuance totaled RMB30.5bn.
The relaxation of mortgage controls and lower mortgage rates contributed to faster mortgage approvals, easing developers' financial pressure.

Investment Outlook

The report maintains a NEUTRAL rating for the sector due to NT headwinds (likely referring to policy tightening and market challenges).
Top Picks include Vanke (2202 HK) and COLI (688 HK), both rated BUY, due to prudent financial management and a track record of sustainable earnings growth.
Aoyuan (3883 HK) is also highlighted for its decent landbank in the GBA (Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macau).

Key Risks

Upward risks: Policy relaxation.
Downward risks: Further policy tightening and economic slowdown.

Financial Highlights (Selected Companies)

Company	Ticker	Rating	Current Price (HK$)	Target Price (HK$)	P/E (2018E)	P/E (2019E)	Div Yield (2018E)	Div Yield (2019E)	Net Gearing (2018E)	Net Gearing (2019E)
Vanke	2202 HK	BUY	27.4	36.0	31	40	4.9	5.7	12	18
COLI	688 HK	BUY	26.9	32.0	19	35	7.0	5.7	37	39
Evergrande	3333 HK	BUY	25.0	36.0	44	42	12.4	8.8	103	71
Country Garden	2007 HK	BUY	9.7	13.0	34	15	7.1	8.7	53	44
Longfor	960 HK	BUY	22.2	28.0	26	31	4.4	5.4	46	45
Sunac	1918 HK	BUY	26.1	36.0	38	45	2.9	4.7	186	121
Agile	3383 HK	NEUTRAL	10.2	10.0	-2	-	10.4	10.6	123	109
KWG	1813 HK	BUY	7.1	7.5	6	15	8.0	9.6	77	81
Times	1233 HK	BUY	7.3	10.8	47	62	8.7	10.5	58	67
Aoyuan	3883 HK	BUY	4.9	7.2	47	64	9.0	12.3	51	73

Investment Recommendations

Top Picks: Vanke (2202 HK), COLI (688 HK), and Aoyuan (3883 HK) are recommended due to their strong financials and growth potential.
Key Upside Risk: Policy relaxation.
Key Downside Risk: Further tightening of policies and economic slowdown.

Sector Performance

Absolute return in the last 1 month: 4.4%
Relative return in the last 1 month: 1.5%
12-month return: -5.7%

Related Research

China Property - Defensive valuation; eyeing on recovery in 2H19E (NEUTRAL) – 2018/11/30
China Property - Old village redevelopment may speed up in Guangzhou (NEUTRAL) – 2018/11/22
China Property - A good timing to own the GBA plays (NEUTRAL) – 2018/11/19

Investment Ratings Definitions

Rating	Definition
OVERWEIGHT	Expect sector to outperform the market over the next 12 months
NEUTRAL	Expect sector to perform in-line with the market over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT	Expect sector to underperform the market over the next 12 months

Rating	Definition
BUY	Expect stock to generate 10%+ return over the next 12 months
NEUTRAL	Expect stock to generate +10% to -10% over the next 12 months
SELL	Expect stock to generate loss of 10%+ over the next 12 months

Disclaimer and Legal Information

The report is prepared by China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. and is for informational purposes only.
It is not an investment advice, offer, or solicitation.
The information and opinions are based on reliable sources but are not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.
The report is not available to the general public in the People's Republic of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), Japan, and Canada.
It is only for UK investment professionals and US persons who are permitted by law.

Analyst Disclosure

The views expressed in the report reflect the personal views of the analysts.
The analysts do not have financial incentives tied to the recommendations.