2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kenya_First_Review_Under_the_Three_60页_1mb

Kenya: First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the findings of the first review under the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Kenya, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff in May–June 2011. It includes the Staff Report and a Press Release summarizing the Executive Board's views. The report also references the Letter of Intent and the Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU), which are part of the broader program review process.

Main Points

1. Economic Recovery and Challenges

• Growth Momentum: Kenya's economic recovery is ongoing, with GDP growth at 5.6% in 2010, driven by both private and public investment.
• Agricultural Impact: Agricultural growth is expected to decelerate due to adverse weather conditions.
• Inflation Concerns: Inflation rose to 13% in May 2011, with core inflation at 7.5%, surpassing the central bank's target range.
• Exchange Rate Pressure: The Kenya Shilling (KSh) has depreciated due to domestic demand pressures and rising oil prices, though it has stabilized somewhat due to tighter monetary policy.

2. Program Implementation

• Performance: The program's performance in the first quarter of 2011 was satisfactory, with March fiscal targets and structural benchmarks met.
• Fiscal Deficit: The primary fiscal deficit was maintained at 2.7% of GDP for 2011/12, slightly lower than the 3.4% projected for 2010/11.
• Waivers and Modifications: The staff recommends waivers for the NDA and NIR performance criteria for end-March 2011 and modifications to all performance criteria and indicative targets for the next 12 months to align with the balance of payments outlook and the 2011/12 fiscal budget.

3. Key Policy Issues

• Monetary Tightening: The central bank (CBK) has raised interest rates and intensified liquidity absorption to curb inflation and stabilize the currency.
• International Reserves: The CBK aims to increase international reserve coverage to over 4 months of imports. Reserve accumulation is expected to reflect the new balance-of-payments outlook.
• Financial Risk Monitoring: The financial system remains sound, with improving capital adequacy ratios and declining non-performing loans. However, risks related to credit growth, especially in real estate, and liquidity pressures are being closely monitored.
• Fiscal Consolidation: Fiscal consolidation is proceeding gradually, with efforts to improve public financial management (PFM) and tax reforms, including the introduction of a new VAT system and a Public Finance Management Law.

4. Structural Reforms

• Central Bank Reforms: The CBK has gained new capabilities to take corrective action in advance of solvency issues. It has also resumed building up international reserves.
• Stock Exchange Demutualization: The process of demutualization has started, aiming to improve transparency and governance in capital markets.
• Tax Reforms: The government has taken steps to reduce the burden on households affected by food and fuel price increases, including tax reductions on kerosene, diesel, and removal of import duties on maize and wheat.

Key Information

• Inflation: Surged to 13% in May 2011, driven by global food and fuel price increases, domestic demand pressures, and a drought.
• Current Account Deficit: Remains large, at 8% of GDP for 2011/12, due to strong domestic demand and higher import prices.
• Monetary Policy: The CBK has increased the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points in May 2011 and raised reserve requirements to 4.75%.
• Fiscal Measures: The draft 2011/12 budget focuses on fiscal consolidation, with reduced current expenditures and a primary deficit of 2.7% of GDP.
• Debt Management: The Debt Management Office (DMO) continues to provide guarantees only for energy projects, and a draft PPP Act is proposed to manage potential contingency liabilities.

Staff Recommendations

• Completion of the Review: The staff recommends completion of the review.
• Waivers and Modifications: Waivers for the NDA and NIR performance criteria for end-March 2011, and modifications to all performance criteria and indicative targets for the next 12 months.
• Continued Reforms: Structural reforms are ongoing, including the implementation of the IFMIS and the introduction of the PFM Law.

Key Figures and Tables

• Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators (2009/10–2014/15)

• Table 2: Central Government Financial Operations

• Table 3: Monetary Survey (Dec 09–Dec 11)

• Table 4: Balance of Payments (2008/09–2014/15)

• Table 5: Financial Soundness Indicators of the Banking Sector

• Table 6: Performance Criteria for the First Review under the 2011/2014 ECF Arrangement

• Table 7: Proposed Timing of Disbursements and Reviews under the 2011–14 ECF Arrangement

• Table 8: Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund (2010–2019)

• Figure 1: Financial Risks in Kenya, 2011

• Box 1: Inflation in Kenya: Recent Developments and Outlook

• Box 2: Recent Developments of the External Sector

• Box 3: Fiscal Measures to Offset the Impact of Food and Fuel Price Increases on Household Income

Conclusion

The review highlights Kenya's ongoing economic recovery, but also the challenges posed by inflation, a large current account deficit, and the need for continued fiscal and monetary discipline. The IMF staff recommends waivers and modifications to the program to align with the current economic outlook and supports the government's efforts to improve financial management and transparency in the economy.