2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kingdom_of_Lesotho_First_Review_Under_the_Three_54页_891kb

Summary of the Kingdom of Lesotho: First Review Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Core Content

The document outlines the First Review Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for the Kingdom of Lesotho, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on June 2, 2010. The review, conducted by an IMF staff team from November 10–22, 2010, and continued during the preparation of the 2011/12 budget, focuses on assessing the program's progress and addressing requests for waiver of nonobservance of performance criteria and modification of performance criteria.

Main Points

Economic Context and Program Overview

• ECF Arrangement: The ECF is a three-year facility of SDR 41.88 million (120% of quota), aimed at addressing fiscal and external imbalances caused by a sharp decline in SACU revenues.
• Macroeconomic Impact: The global crisis had a milder impact on Lesotho's growth than anticipated, with real GDP growth estimated at 2.5% in 2010, lower than the 5.5% projected under the program.
• Current Account Deficit: The external current account deficit worsened to 16% of GDP in 2010, due to declining SACU revenues and a widening trade deficit.
• Fiscal Performance: Fiscal performance for the first half of FY2010/11 was stronger than projected, with a deficit of -0.2% of GDP instead of -6.4% of GDP, driven by unexpected SACU receipts and dividend payments from the CBL.

Program Performance

• The program is on track, with all quantitative performance criteria met for end-September 2010, except for the floor on net international reserves (NIR), which was missed by a small margin.
• Structural Reforms: Implementation of structural reforms is progressing, but with some delays in meeting benchmarks.
• Staff Recommendation: The staff supports the request for a waiver of the nonobservance of the end-September 2010 performance criterion on NIR and recommends modifying the end-March 2011 performance criteria.

Policy Discussions

• The focus of the discussions was on the 2011/12 budget and the structural reform agenda.
• Fiscal Consolidation: The 2011/12 fiscal deficit is projected at 15% of GDP, reflecting a deterioration of 6.75% from the 2010/11 level, but still lower than the original program's expectations.
• Key Expenditure Drivers: The deficit is driven by increased wage and salary payments, higher capital spending, and interest payments on domestic debt.
• Fiscal Adjustments: To counterbalance these increases, the authorities will freeze new positions, eliminate nonpriority posts, and maintain tight expenditure ceilings.

Structural Reforms

• Financial Sector Reforms: The government is working on strengthening the regulatory and supervisory framework for financial institutions, especially nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs).
• Legislative Measures: A new Financial Institutions Bill is being submitted to Parliament to address supervision of NBFIs and unlawful business practices.
• Business Climate Improvements: Reforms are aimed at boosting productivity and external competitiveness, including the amendment of the Land Reform Act, the new Companies Bill, and the automation of the Companies Registry.
• Leasing Finance: A Partial Guarantee Scheme and National Leasing Finance proposal are being considered to improve access to financial services.

Program Monitoring and Safeguards

• Performance Criteria: Modifications to performance criteria and benchmarks are proposed, reflecting improved fiscal performance and a backloaded expenditure pattern.
• Safeguards Assessment: The CBL has made progress in strengthening its safeguards framework, including the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards and web-based publication of financial statements.
• Challenges: Risks remain in the external audit mechanism and controls over monetary program data. The CBL has committed to hiring an international audit firm.

Poverty Reduction Strategy

• The Poverty Reduction Strategy is aligned with the ECF program, focusing on fiscal consolidation, financial sector reforms, and improving the business climate.

Key Information

• IMF Staff Report: Prepared by the African Department in consultation with other departments, and approved by Domenico Fanizza and Tom Dorsey on March 18, 2011.

• Publications: The staff report and related documents are available to the public, with market-sensitive information removed.

• Documents Included:

  • Letter of Intent
  • Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP)
  • Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU)

• Key Indicators:

  • Real GDP Growth: Expected to rise to 5.1% of GDP by 2015.
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): Projected to increase to 5.6% in 2015.
  • Overall Fiscal Balance: Projected to improve to 1.3% of GDP by 2015.
  • Government Debt: Expected to remain around 44.6% of GDP by 2015.
  • External Debt-Service Ratio: Projected to decline to 3.6% of exports by 2015.
  • Official Reserves: Expected to increase to 797.9 million USD by 2015.

• Funding Sources: The deficit will be financed through domestic resources and external grants and loans. The government will continue to seek external financing to maintain debt sustainability.

Conclusion

The program is on track and supports the authorities' request for a waiver and modification of performance criteria. The medium-term outlook is manageable, with growth expected to recover through infrastructure spending and fiscal consolidation. The structural reforms are progressing, though with delays, and the IMF is supportive of the government's reform agenda. The safeguards framework is being strengthened, and the poverty reduction strategy is aligned with the ECF program.