【IISDSSI】2024全球大豆市场报告大豆价格与可持续发展_38页_825kb

Summary of the Global Market Report on Soybean Prices and Sustainability

Core Content

The global soybean market is a critical component of the world's food and industrial systems, with significant economic and environmental implications. Soybeans are known as the "king of beans" due to their versatility, affordability, and nutritional value, with 20% oil and 40% protein content. They are primarily used for animal feed (76%), edible oils and food products (20%), and industrial purposes (4%), such as biodiesel.

Soybean production has seen substantial growth over the past few decades, with global output rising by 1,200% since the 1960s. The United States, Brazil, and Argentina now account for 80% of global production. Brazil alone is responsible for a significant portion of the world's soybean exports, and its production has expanded rapidly, particularly in the Cerrado region. However, this expansion has raised concerns about deforestation and ecosystem conversion, especially in the Brazilian Amazon.

The sector's value is projected to grow from USD 155 billion in 2023 to USD 278 billion by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%. Conventional soybean production has grown at a slower rate than VSS-compliant soybeans, which have seen a CAGR of 11% to 15% from 2014 to 2019. VSS-compliant soybean production in 2019 ranged from 5.79 Mt to 8.78 Mt, representing 2% to 3% of global production, and this share dropped slightly to 1.7% to 2.3% in 2021.

Main Views

• Soybean's Role: Soybeans are a major source of protein and oil globally, with a wide range of applications in food, feed, and industry.
• Market Growth: The global soybean market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing demand for protein, especially in plant-based and animal-based products.
• Sustainability Challenges: The expansion of soybean cultivation has led to deforestation and biodiversity loss, particularly in the Amazon and Cerrado regions. These environmental impacts are a growing concern for the sector.
• Climate Change Impact: Climate change is expected to affect soybean yields, with some regions facing increased vulnerability to heat and moisture stress. Adaptation strategies such as climate-resilient cultivars and reduced tilling are being explored.
• VSS Compliance: Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSSs) are being increasingly adopted to promote sustainable practices. VSS-compliant soybeans are seen as a way to address environmental and social concerns, though their market share remains relatively small.
• Price Volatility: Soybean prices are influenced by weather conditions, geopolitical tensions, and global supply and demand dynamics. Prices have surged by 90% since late 2020, partly due to the impact of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Key Information

• Global Production and Use:
  • 76% of soybeans are used for animal feed.
  • 20% for edible oils and human food.
  • 4% for industrial purposes, mainly biodiesel.
• Production Growth:
  • Global soybean production increased by 1,200% over the past few decades.
  • Brazil's soybean production is forecast to expand by 12 million hectares between 2021 and 2050.
• Economic Impact:
  • The sector is worth USD 155 billion and is projected to reach USD 278 billion by 2031.
  • The U.S. soybean industry lost over USD 4.7 billion in 2020 due to the pandemic.
• Environmental Impact:
  • Soybean production contributes to 21% to 37% of global GHG emissions.
  • Deforestation-free supply chains are critical for reducing the environmental footprint.
• VSS Trends:
  • VSS-compliant soybean production in 2019 was between 5.79 Mt and 8.78 Mt, with a farm gate value of USD 1.71 billion to USD 2.53 billion.
  • VSS compliance is associated with higher yields in some countries and lower in others.
• Future Outlook:
  • VSS-compliant soybean production is expected to range from 4.35 Mt to 7.72 Mt by 2025.
  • The European Union's Deforestation Regulation, expected to take effect in 2024, could further influence the sector's sustainability practices.
• Geopolitical Factors:
  • The Russia-Ukraine conflict and pandemic-related disruptions have affected global soybean supply and prices.
  • Trade restrictions and sanctions have limited fertilizer exports, impacting soybean production costs and availability.

Conclusion

The soybean sector is a vital part of the global economy and food system, but it faces significant challenges in terms of sustainability and climate resilience. While VSSs are gaining traction, their adoption remains limited. Addressing these challenges through sustainable practices, policy reforms, and increased market demand for eco-friendly products is essential for the long-term viability of the sector.