20151118-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock market conditions, including index performance, sector analysis, stock recommendations, and market data. It also covers external market factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities, along with insights into the A-share premium to H-share and top traded ETFs.

Main Points and Key Information

Market Highlights

• Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect: The Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced plans to improve the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, including expanding turnover limits and investable scope. The Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect is more likely to be launched in 2016, indicating financial market stability and positive investment sentiment.
• Macau Gaming Revenue: Macau Chief Executive Fernando Chui expects gross gaming revenue to be around MOP200bn for 2016, which is a monthly average of approximately MOP16.6bn, suggesting a further decline in gaming revenue compared to the first ten months of 2015.
• Equity Indices:
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 22,264, up 1.2%.
  • HSCEI closed at 10,073, up 0.9%.
  • Shanghai Composite closed at 3,605, down 0.1%.
  • Shenzhen Composite closed at 2,231, down 0.9%.
  • DJIA closed at 17,490, up 0.0%.
  • S&P 500 closed at 2,050, down 0.1%.
  • Nasdaq Composite closed at 4,986, up 0.0%.
  • FTSE 100 closed at 6,269, up 2.0%.
  • DAX closed at 10,971, up 2.4%.
  • CAC 40 closed at 4,937, up 2.8%.
  • Nikkei 225 closed at 19,823, up 1.0%.
  • Taiwan Weighted closed at 8,419, up 1.5%.

Hong Kong Market Turnover

• HSI: Turnover of HK$21.1bn, down -9.35%.
• HSCCI: Turnover of HK$4.8bn, down -11.65%.
• HSCEI: Turnover of HK$13.5bn, down -8.39%.
• Main Board: Turnover of HK$73.9bn, down -4.01%.

External Market Conditions

• U.S. Market: Mixed performance with energy sector falling and retail sector affected by bomb fears. ADRs rose, putting HSI up 5 points.
• Oil Prices: Rebounded, leading to gains for oil-related stocks.
• Gold Prices: Tumbled to a 5.5-year low, influenced by the Paris terrorist attacks.
• Interest Rates: U.S. Treasury yields fell, while HK HIBOR rates decreased slightly.
• Exchange Rates: USD/HKD remained stable, but other currencies like EUR/USD and USD/JPY showed declines.
• Commodities: Prices of crude oil, gold, and silver fell significantly, indicating market concerns.

Yesterday's Hong Kong Equities

• HSI rose 400 points, closing at 22,264, up 253 points.
• HSCEI climbed 94 points, closing at 10,073.
• Total Turnover: HK$73.8bn.
• China Property Stocks: Showed increased investor interest due to potential government support.
• China Travel HK (308.HK): Share prices were boosted by anticipated M&A and asset injections.
• Oil-related Stocks: Advanced due to rebounding oil prices.

Stock in Focus

• China Travel HK (308.HK):
  • Last Close: HK$3.40
  • Entry: HK$3.20
  • Target: HK$4.00
  • Stop-loss: HK$3.00
  • YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 28.3%/4.0%/5.9%/27.9%
  • Market Cap: HK$18.85bn
  • 3M Average Daily Volume: 14.76mn shares
  • FY1 Forward P/E: 17.6x
  • Reason: Anticipated M&A and asset injections are expected to uplift the share price.

Today's Top Picks

• China Inv Dev (204):

  • Last Close: HK$0.195
  • Purchase Price: Current
  • Target Price: HK$0.220
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$0.185
  • Reason: Interim results expected to record a profit from a loss last year.

• Car Inc (699):

  • Last Close: HK$14.88
  • Purchase Price: Current
  • Target Price: HK$17.90
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$13.50
  • Reason: Net profit surged in the first three quarters, with share price expected to rise further.

Sector Performance

• Top Performing Sectors (1D % Change):
  • Airline: 2.5%
  • Gaming: 2.1%
  • Aluminum: 1.8%
  • Logistics: 1.8%
  • Automobile: 1.7%
  • Brokerages: 1.7%
  • Environmental and New Energy: 1.5%
  • Local Property: 1.3%
  • Technology: 1.2%
  • Dairy: 1.2%
  • Telecoms Equipment: 1.1%
  • Local Banks: 1.1%
  • Chinese Telecoms: 1.0%
  • Oil-related: 0.9%
  • Chinese Banks: 0.8%

Forward P/E and Valuations of Major Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): FY15E P/E of 11.2, long-term average of 11.3, deviation from average of -0.5%, FY1 EPS growth of -12.6%, FY2 EPS growth of 5.7%.
• HSCEI: FY15E P/E of 7.5, long-term average of 8.5, deviation from average of -11.4%, FY1 EPS growth of -1.6%, FY2 EPS growth of 4.5%.
• Shanghai Composite: FY15E P/E of 15.4, long-term average of 11.0, deviation from average of +39.3%, FY1 EPS growth of +22.7%, FY2 EPS growth of +10.9%.
• S&P 500: FY15E P/E of 17.3, long-term average of 14.7, deviation from average of +17.7%, FY1 EPS growth of +5.8%, FY2 EPS growth of +9.0%.

Market Data

• Best Performers:
  • TRINITY LTD (891.HK): 8.7% gain in 1D.
  • XINYI SOLAR HLDS (968.HK): 6.9% gain in 1D.
  • HUANENG RENEWA-H (958.HK): 6.5% gain in 1D.
  • OZNER WATER (2014.HK): 6.1% gain in 1D.
  • LIFESTYLE INTL (1212.HK): 5.9% gain in 1D.
• Worst Performers:
  • SOHO CHINA (410.HK): -14.2% decline in 1D.
  • GOME ELECTRICAL (493.HK): -5.6% decline in 1D.
  • CHOW TAI FOOK JE (1929.HK): -5.5% decline in 1D.
  • SHOUGANG FUSHAN (639.HK): -3.8% decline in 1D.
  • SINOTRANS LTD-H (598.HK): -3.1% decline in 1D.

HSCI Volume Filter

• CLP HOLDINGS (2.HK): 235.1% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of 15.2.
• GEMDALE PROPERTI (535.HK): 163.1% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of 6.9.
• MACAU LEGEND (1680.HK): 150.7% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of N/A.
• GIORDANO INTL (709.HK): 138.9% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of 14.6.
• CITIC RESOURCES (1205.HK): 136.4% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of N/A.
• CHINA HUIYUAN (1886.HK): 134.4% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of N/A.
• JIANGSU EXPRES-H (177.HK): 129.8% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of 14.5.
• BIOSTIME INTERNA (1112.HK): 118.0% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of 12.8.
• TCC INTL HLDGS (1136.HK): 110.3% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of 14.4.
• CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883.HK): 167.0% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of 11.0.
• CHINA SHIPPING D (1138.HK): 145.2% increase in volume, FY1 P/E of 11.0.

Most Short Sold Stocks

• TIBET 5100 WATER (1115.HK): 0.0% of total shortsell turnover, 294.7% of own turnover.
• SPRINGLAND (1700.HK): 0.0% of total shortsell turnover, 62.6% of own turnover.
• WANT WANT CHINA (151.HK): 0.7% of total shortsell turnover, 58.9% of own turnover.
• ESPRIT HLDGS (330.HK): 0.1% of total shortsell turnover, 58.0% of own turnover.
• SOHO CHINA (410.HK): 0.4% of total shortsell turnover, 43.5% of own turnover.
• HENGAN INTL (1929.HK): -14.0% decline in 5D, -18.1% decline in 1M, -45.1% decline in YTD.
• GOME ELECTRICAL (493.HK): -7.6% decline in 5D, -2.9% decline in 1M, 17.5% increase in YTD.
• CHOW TAI FOOK JE (1929.HK): -14.0% decline in 5D, -18.1% decline in 1M, -45.1% decline in YTD.
• SHOUGANG FUSHAN (639.HK): -3.8% decline in 5D, -6.5% decline in 1M, -31.0% decline in YTD.
• SINOTRANS LTD-H (598.HK): -3.1% decline in 5D, -6.9% decline in 1M, -15.9% decline in YTD.

A-share Premium to H-share

• LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108): A-share price of 36.88 RMB, H-share price of 5.31 HK$, premium of 743.9%.
• JIANGXI COPPER-H (358): A-share price of 15.17 RMB, H-share price of 9.71 HK$, premium of 89.8%.
• SINOPEC OILFIE-H (1033): A-share price of 9.24 RMB, H-share price of 2.30 HK$, premium of 388.1%.
• CIMC-H (2039): A-share price of 20.64 RMB, H-share price of 13.32 HK$, premium of 88.3%.
• ANGANG STEEL-H (347): A-share price of 4.93 RMB, H-share price of 3.24 HK$, premium of 84.9%.
• CHINA SHENHUA-H (1088): A-share price of 15.68 RMB, H-share price of 12.56 HK$, premium of 51.7%.
• CHINA RAIL GR-H (390): A-share price of 12.60 RMB, H-share price of 6.58 HK$, premium of 132.7%.
• CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883): A-share price of 17.56 RMB, H-share price of 7.99 HK$, premium of 167.0%.
• CHINA VANKE-H (2202): A-share price of 14.00 RMB, H-share price of 18.48 HK$, premium of -8.0%.

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

• 2822: CSOP FTSE CH-HKD, Price: HK$13.02, 1D change: 0.15%, 5D change: -2.11%.
• 2800: TRACKER FUND HK, Price: HK$22.50, 1D change: 1.35%, 5D change: -0.44%.
• 2823: ISHARES FTSE A50, Price: HK$11.38, 1D change: 0.35%, 5D change: -2.90%.

Conclusion

The report highlights a mix of market conditions, with some indices showing positive performance while others decline. China Travel HK is a key focus due to potential M&A and asset injections, and several sectors are noted for their performance. External factors like interest rates and exchange rates show mixed trends, with commodities and gold prices dropping. The A-share premium to H-share varies significantly, and the top traded ETFs indicate ongoing market activity. Investors are advised to monitor these trends and consider strategic positions in the mentioned stocks and sectors.