2017年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_Making_US_Trade_and_Investment_Policies_Work_for_Global_Development_17页_325kb

Summary of Policy Brief: PB 16-21 - Making US Trade and Investment Policies Work for Global Development

Core Content

This policy brief by Robert Z. Lawrence and Terra Lawson-Remer analyzes the effectiveness of US trade and investment policies in promoting global development, particularly in low-income countries. It argues that while trade and investment policies can be powerful tools for economic growth and development, many current programs are not fulfilling their potential.

Main Objectives

• To promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth in less developed countries.
• To secure US interests and values by fostering peaceful societies, reducing poverty, and expanding markets for US exports.
• To enhance the economic efficiency and predictability of US trade and investment policies.

Key Findings

1. US Trade and Investment Policies and Global Development

• Trade and investment policies can benefit both rich and poor countries, fostering economic development and reducing poverty.
• These policies are more economically efficient and stable than aid, which often requires higher taxation and is subject to political fluctuations.
• Export-led growth is a crucial pathway for low-income countries to improve living standards and reduce poverty.

2. Current US Trade and Investment Programs

a. Multilateral Mechanisms

• The WTO provides special and differential treatment (SDT) for developing countries, including LDCs.
• The Doha Round has stalled due to lack of liberalization from major emerging economies.
• The US focuses on trade agreements that have a significant impact on low-income countries rather than broader multilateral initiatives.

b. Bilateral and Plurilateral Agreements

• The US has signed numerous FTAs and BITs with developing countries in various regions.
• These agreements aim to promote cooperation, investment, and trade, but their effectiveness varies.

c. Unilateral Preferences: GSP and AGOA

• The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) offers duty-free access to certain products from developing countries.
• The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) provides preferential access to US markets for Sub-Saharan African countries, with special rules for apparel.

3. GSP and AGOA Effectiveness

a. GSP Limitations

• GSP coverage is very limited, with only 8.9% of US imports from GSP-eligible countries actually benefiting.
• Most GSP benefits are concentrated in a few countries (India, Thailand, Brazil).
• GSP rules of origin (requiring 35% value-added) often prevent LDCs from qualifying.
• GSP is not well-designed for promoting development, and its benefits are often short-lived and uncertain.

b. AGOA Limitations

• AGOA has had limited success in promoting development, despite its goal of increasing exports and employment.
• Many AGOA beneficiaries are not diversifying their economies, remaining dependent on extractive industries like oil and gas.
• Over 60% of AGOA imports are in oil and gas, which does not contribute to sustainable development.
• AGOA fails to generate meaningful economic linkages or value addition in recipient countries.
• The program lacks a clear mechanism for civil society input and has a binary approach to compliance, which can be overly punitive.

4. Regional and Bilateral Agreements

• African regional trade agreements, such as SACU, EAC, and COMESA, have been signed but are not effectively implemented due to poor customs administration, infrastructure issues, and corruption.
• US aid policies aimed at facilitating trade are well-intentioned but require more focus and coordination.

5. Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs)

• BITs are intended to protect foreign investors and encourage investment in developing countries.
• However, they can undermine development objectives by limiting the ability of governments to manage macroeconomic risks and respond to economic changes.
• BITs often create parallel legal mechanisms (e.g., ISDS), which can weaken domestic governance and the rule of law.

Key Recommendations

• Broaden trade preference coverage to include more products and countries.
• Modify preference terms to encourage product diversification and value addition.
• Improve conditionality mechanisms to ensure compliance with labor and environmental standards.
• Strengthen links between investment frameworks and development goals, learning from the GSP's petition system.
• Enhance implementation of regional trade agreements in Africa.
• Revise BIT models to better align with development objectives, promoting equal legal rights and supporting domestic governance.

Conclusion

The brief emphasizes that pro-development trade and investment policies can serve as a "hand-up" rather than a "hand-out," fostering long-term growth and stability in low-income countries. However, current programs like GSP and AGOA are not fully realizing these benefits, and reform is necessary to ensure they support sustainable and inclusive development.