2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Jordan_Second_Review_Under_the_Stand_86页_2mb

Jordan: Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content Summary

This document outlines the second review of Jordan's Stand-By Arrangement under the International Monetary Fund (IMF), including the request for waivers of non-observance of performance criteria and modifications to those criteria. It provides an analysis of Jordan's economic performance, policy discussions, and outlook for the future.

Main Points

1. Economic Context and Challenges

• Regional Instability: The conflict in Syria and the suspension of gas flows from Egypt have had a significant impact on Jordan's fiscal and external accounts.
• Refugee Inflows: A large influx of Syrian refugees has strained labor and housing markets, increased public service demand, and raised fiscal costs.
• Economic Recovery: Growth is recovering slowly, with real GDP increasing by 2.8% year-on-year in June 2013, slightly up from 2012. However, high unemployment persists, especially among women.
• Inflation: Inflation is elevated, with headline inflation at 5.5% in September 2013, driven by food and rent increases due to refugee demand.

2. Program Performance

• Overall Progress: The program is broadly on track, with the central bank rebuilding reserves to a level above the programmed target.
• Performance Criteria Misses:
  • The end-September performance criterion on the central government primary deficit was missed due to unexpected debt servicing of utilities and higher fuel costs from the suspension of Egyptian gas.
  • NEPCO's losses exceeded the end-September target due to the gas flow disruption, although they were below the end-June target.
  • The end-June indicative target on NEPCO's arrears clearance was not met due to the delay in bank financing.

3. Key Policy Measures

• Fiscal Consolidation: Continued fiscal consolidation is expected to reduce debt, but has been slowed by external shocks.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank has maintained a comfortable reserve position and lowered the policy interest rate to support economic stability.
• Structural Reforms: Energy sector reforms are progressing, including the gradual increase in electricity tariffs and a medium-term energy strategy to reduce NEPCO's losses. Tax reforms and improved compliance are also underway.
• Financial Sector: Efforts to strengthen financial sector resilience are ongoing, with the establishment of a credit bureau and the implementation of a quarterly reporting system on arrears.

4. Outlook and Risks

• Growth Projections: Growth for 2013 is projected at 3.3%, with a convergence to 4.5% in the medium term.
• Inflation Outlook: Inflation is expected to decrease to about 2% in the medium term, consistent with maintaining the exchange rate peg.
• Current Account Deficit: The deficit is narrowing, from 22% of GDP in 2012 to 19% in 2013, and is projected to decline further to 11% of GDP in the medium term due to the anticipated operation of the LNG facility.
• Risks: Elevated risks from the Syrian crisis, potential disruptions in gas inflows, and a weaker current account remain. Additional grants are critical to mitigating these risks and supporting growth.

5. Program Modality Adjustments

• Waivers and Modifications: Waivers have been requested for non-observance of performance criteria due to external shocks, and the program has been modified to accommodate these.
• Funding Availability: The completion of the second review makes available SDR 170.5 million (approximately $258 million).

Key Information

• Reserves: Net international reserves (NIR) reached $9.5 billion by end-September 2013, exceeding program targets by $3.1 billion.
• Electricity Reforms: Tariff increases were implemented in August 2013, with further increases planned for the following years. The reform process is more gradual than initially expected.
• Debt Sustainability: Both public and external debt sustainability analyses are included in the annexes, highlighting the importance of continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms.
• Support from Donors: GCC grants and private receipts for Syrians have contributed to improving the current account and reducing fiscal pressure.

Conclusion

Jordan's economic performance under the Stand-By Arrangement has shown resilience despite external shocks. While some performance criteria were not met, the program remains broadly on track. Continued fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and access to external grants are essential to ensuring long-term macroeconomic stability and growth.