国际清算银行-跨境银行贷款货币选择的决定因素（英）-2024.5-21页_1mb

Determinants of Currency Choice in Cross-Border Bank Loans Summary

This paper by Emter, McQuade, Pradhan, and Schmitz analyzes the factors influencing the choice of currency for cross-border bank loans, using granular data from the BIS locational banking statistics. The study finds that cross-border lending in US dollars and euros is highly concentrated geographically, with the euro being more regionally dominant due to its close ties to the European Union, whereas the US dollar is globally dominant.

Key findings include:

• The euro is geographically concentrated around Europe and the United Kingdom (UK), particularly for lending to non-bank institutions, while the US dollar network is centered globally, with a major role played by offshore financial centres.
• Brexit has weakened the UK’s role in euro-denominated loans to non-banks.
• Cross-border lending in the euro is significantly affected by "distance" in line with gravity models, whereas USD lending is less affected, exhibiting a global reach untouched by geography.
• Trade invoicing and banking are complementary for both currencies, though the relationship is stronger for the euro.
• Policy implications suggest that preserving the openness of trade and financial markets could support the euro’s international role.

Overall, the analysis confirms the euro's regional dominance and the US dollar’s global role, highlighting geographic concentration, institutional structures, and complementarities between trade and banking as key determinants.