国际清算银行-地缘政治与货币政策_解读其对跨境银行贷款的影响（英）-2025.3_57页_1mb

Geopolitics Meets Monetary Policy: Decoding Their Impact on Cross-Border Bank Lending

Summary

Introduction
This paper examines the combined effects of geopolitical tensions and monetary policy on cross-border bank lending, using bilateral cross-border claims data. Geopolitical tensions— measured by UN voting disagreement, sanctions, and geopolitical risk indices—are found to significantly dampen cross-border bank lending. Additionally, geopolitical tensions amplify the international transmission of monetary policies, particularly during periods of monetary tightening. Geopolitical and monetary factors are roughly equally important drivers of cross-border lending.

Summary

1. Core Objectives

   • Geopolitical Impact: High geopolitical tensions (e.g., UN voting disagreement, sanctions, and elevated geopolitical risk) reduce cross-border bank lending in a statistically and economically significant manner.
   • Monetary Policy Transmission: Geopolitical tensions enhance the transmission of monetary policies by constraining banks in geopolitically volatile regions, making them more sensitive to monetary tightenings.
   • Geopolitical vs. Monetary Importance: Geopolitical factors account for similar magnitudes of variation in lending as monetary policy (ca. 50% vs. 30%).
   • Currency Effects: Reserve currency issuance and liquidity conditions affect bank lending globally, independent of borrower or lender nationality.
   • Policy Relevance: Results aid policymakers in reserve currency countries, lending-source countries, and borrowers’ countries in managing cross-border bank lending risks under geopolitical stress.

2. Methodology

   • Data: Uses BIS locational banking statistics (LBSN) and three metrics of geopolitical tensions:
     • UN voting disagreement (IPD),
     • Bilateral sanctions, and
     • Geopolitical risk indices (GPR).
   • Shadow Interest Rates: Used to measure liquidity conditions during low interest rate periods.
   • Identification Strategy: Focuses on interactions between monetary policy (reserve currency issuers) and geopolitical proxies, controlling for endogeneity and country effects.

3. Key Findings

   • Geopolitical Effects: All three measures (IPD, sanctions, relative GPR) reduce cross-border lending, with IPD having the largest effect.
   • Monetary Interaction: Tightening monetary policy magnifies the negative effects of geopolitical tensions, especially when country pairs are high-risk.
   • Monetary Alone: Still drives bank lending, but amplification occurs under high geopolitical uncertainty.

4. Robustness

   • Currency Substitution: Effects hold across reserve currencies in interaction terms.
   • Time Trends: Accounting for global geopolitical shifts confirms original results.
   • Sector Differences: Non-financial borrowers are more affected by sanctions, while international financial institutions react more to geopolitical risk.

5. Conclusion
   Geopolitical tensions significantly shape cross-border bank lending, often synergizing with monetary tightening to dampen flows. These findings highlight the need for central banks and policymakers to consider third-party geopolitical factors when assessing global liquidity and policy transmission.

Policy Relevance

• Reserve Currency Issuers: Gauge global liquidity dynamics in their currencies.
• Source Countries: Monitor credit conditions in domestic banking systems.
• Borrowers: Assess vulnerability to financed credit cuts during volatile geopolitical times.

End-of-Text Summary