20230217-招银国际-Resilient_GMV_growth_to_sustain_in_2023_6页_1mb

报告摘要

Pinduoduo (PDD US) Summary

Core Content and Key Insights

Pinduoduo (PDD) is expected to maintain resilient GMV and revenue growth in 2023, driven by increased user stickiness and the integration of more branded products. The company's core platform e-commerce business has entered a stable growth phase, which is anticipated to provide strong cash flow for its overseas expansion, particularly for Temu.

Main Points

GMV Growth: PDD's domestic business (core app & DDG) is projected to have a combined 2021–2024E GMV CAGR of 23%.
Market Share: The company's market share in China e-commerce is expected to expand from 16% in 2021 to 19–21% in 2022/2023E.
Monetization Rate: The monetization rate is forecasted to increase to 4.4% in 2024E from 3.6% in 2021, supported by the "Ten Billion subsidy" and higher average order value from DDG.
User Engagement: PDD's DAU/MAU ratio remained high at 59.6% in Nov 2022, close to Douyin's 62.2% and higher than Kuaishou, Taobao, and JD.com.
Core Business Profitability: The core business is expected to achieve non-GAAP operating profit breakeven in mid-to-late 2023, with a forecasted non-GAAP net margin increase of 3.6–2.5pp for 2022–2024E.
Temu Investment: While Temu is expected to generate a c.RMB12bn loss in 2023, the core business's incremental operating profit is expected to buffer this, supporting Temu's overseas expansion.
Valuation: The DCF-based target price per ADS is raised to US$116.9, translating to 26x 2023E non-GAAP PE, up from 24x previously.

Financial Forecast and Performance

Revenue (RMB bn)

2022E: 133.5
2023E: 170.1
2024E: 203.0
CAGR: 23% (2021–2024E)

Net Profit (RMB mn)

2022E: 32,066.8
2023E: 36,030.9
2024E: 49,780.3

Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn)

2022E: 39,370.9
2023E: 44,928.3
2024E: 59,983.6

EPS (Adjusted) (RMB)

2022E: 27.44
2023E: 31.31
2024E: 41.81

P/E Ratio (x)

2022E: 25.8
2023E: 23.0
2024E: 16.6

ROE (%)

2022E: 33.7
2023E: 26.2
2024E: 26.2

Forecast Changes

Revenue Forecast Lifted: 12–22% increase for 2022–2024E due to higher GMV and monetization rate expectations.
Non-GAAP Net Profit Lifted: 27–33% increase for 2022–2024E, driven by improved gross profit margin and expected revenue growth, partially offset by increased operating expenses.

Valuation and Target Price

Target Price: US$116.9 per ADS (up from US$92.9)
Valuation Per Share: US$116.9 (based on DCF model with unchanged WACC of 12.0% and terminal growth rate of 2.0%)
Non-GAAP PE Ratio: 26x for 2023E

Shareholding and Financials

Shareholding Structure

Zheng Huang-related entities: 27.9%
Tencent-related entities: 15.5%

Stock Performance

Period	Absolute	Relative
1-mth	-1.1%	-8.4%
3-mth	35.1%	28.3%
6-mth	87.5%	105.9%

Cash Flow

Operating Cash Flow: Expected to grow significantly, with RMB73,936bn in 2024E.
Investing Cash Flow: Expected to improve due to reduced capital expenditure and no further acquisitions.
Financing Cash Flow: Net cash from financing is expected to decrease in 2023E and 2024E, with no share repurchases.

Balance Sheet Highlights

Total Assets: Expected to increase from RMB181.21bn in 2021 to RMB357.06bn in 2024E.
Cash & Equivalents: Expected to grow from RMB6.43bn in 2021 to RMB190.29bn in 2024E.
Total Liabilities: Projected to increase from RMB106.09bn in 2021 to RMB137.03bn in 2024E.
Shareholders' Equity: Expected to rise from RMB75.11bn in 2021 to RMB220.02bn in 2024E.

Analyst Ratings and Outlook

Ratings: BUY (Maintain)
Target Price: US$116.90
Up/Downside: 21.9%
Current Price: US$95.89

Catalysts

4Q22 Results: Expected to show strong performance.
Core Business Growth: Better than expected GMV and profit growth.
Temu Expansion: Rapid ramp-up of Temu's operations and user acquisition.

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and that there are no conflicts of interest affecting the report's objectivity.

Important Disclosures

The report is not tailored to individual investors.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The value of investments may fluctuate.
CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. or Singapore, and the report is for specific clients only.

展开完整摘要