全球贸易展望和数据-28页_920kb

Global Trade Outlook Summary

• The World Trade Organization (WTO) report analyzes global trade developments up to Q4 2022 and forecasts trade growth for 2023 and 2024.
• Key Projections: Merchandise trade volume is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2023, up from 1.0% previously, and rebound to 3.2% in 2024. The value of world merchandise trade rose 12% in 2022 to US$25.3 trillion, while commercial services trade increased 15% to US$6.8 trillion.
• Risks: Geopolitical tensions, inflation, potential financial instability from monetary tightening, and food insecurity pose significant downside risks to trade growth.
• 2022 Performance: Trade volume grew by 2.7% in 2022, faster than worst-case scenarios but slower than prior expectations; risks include high commodity prices,COVID-19 impacts, and reduced Chinese exports.
• Goods Trade: Resilient despite disruptions; fast-growing sectors include energy (61% year-on-year growth in fuel trade in 2022).
• Services Trade: Digital delivery of services hit US$3.82 trillion in 2022; computer services and transport showed strong growth, with travel rebounding post-pandemic restrictions.
• Regionally: Europe and Asia saw mixed results, with North America recording the strongest export growth; risks from banking system strains and war in Ukraine persist.
• Digitally Delivered Services: Comprised 54% of services exports in 2022; Europe is the largest contributor, but growth varies across regions.
• Supporting Data: Charts show trends in trade volumes, GDP, and container throughput, with MIDAS techniques used for forecasts;PMIs indicate slow trade recovery in early 2023.
• Additional Context: WTO warns of potential food crises and economic slowdowns; digitized trade grows rapidly, contributing to global trade dynamics.