全球贸易展望和统计报告（2023年4月）（英）-28页_920kb

Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Summary

Report Overview

The World Trade Organization (WTO) "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" report, embargoed until 14:00 Geneva time on 5 April 2023, analyzes global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2022 and provides forecasts for 2023 and 2024. The WTO ensures trade flows smoothly and predictably among nations, with a level playing field for members.

Key Findings from 2022

• World merchandise trade volume grew by 2.7% in 2022, averaging 4.2% in the first three quarters before a 2.4% quarter-on-quarter decline in Q4, influenced by geopolitical tensions, high inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war, COVID-19, and declining commodity prices.
• The value of world merchandise trade rose 12% to US$25.3 trillion in 2022, inflated by high global commodity prices.
• World commercial services trade increased 15% in value, reaching US$6.8 trillion, with digitally delivered services exports worth US$3.82 trillion.
• The projected growth for 2023 is 1.7% overall merchandise trade volume, stronger than the previous estimate but still weak, due to better global GDP growth assumptions (from 2.3% to 2.4%) and regional shifts, such as Europe's up revision (+0.7%) offset by Asia's down revision (-0.4%).
• In 2024, trade growth is expected to rebound to 3.2%, but risks remain tilted downward due to ongoing uncertainties like food insecurity and financial instability.

Forecasts and Risks

• 2023 Growth: Merchandise trade volume projected at 1.7%, services at not specified, but linked to GDP growth and confidence bands noting a 85% confidence interval adjusted for downside risks.
• Key Risks: Geopolitical tensions, food insecurity, financial instability from monetary tightening, and debt levels threaten the forecast. A worst-case scenario, such as trade fragmentation or a severe food crisis, could significantly impact long-term growth; however, 2022 avoided the most pessimistic outcomes.
• Drivers: Geopolitical factors, inflation, energy and commodity price swings, COVID-19 lingering effects, and supply chain disruptions.
• Regional Variations: Europe (1.8% export growth in 2023), North America (strongest at 3.3%), CIS (fastest import growth at 14.9% due to reduced base), with Africa and South America expecting declines.

Trade Developments in Value Terms

• Merchandise trade value rose 12% in 2022 compared to 2021, with fastest growth in energy sectors (+61%), while goods like textiles and chemicals saw moderate increases.
• Services trade values, including transportation (+25%) and computer services (+45% over the decade), were boosted by digitalization and the pandemic.

Other Indicators

• Container throughput and purchasing managers' indices (PMI) show ongoing trends, with goods transport stabilizing and services trade expected to recover in 2023 due to easing mobility restrictions.
• Digitally delivered services exports have quadrupled since 2005, accounting for 54% of total services exports in 2022.

Data and Notes

• Detailed statistics and tables on leading exporters/importers are provided in appendices, with data sourced from WTO and partner statistics.
• Forecasts are based on mixed-data sampling techniques, incorporating factors like container throughput and economic indicators.