2017生存风险_外交与治理（英文版）_32页_1mb

Existential Risk Summary

Core Content

This report discusses existential risks—threats that could lead to the premature extinction of humanity or permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development. These risks are not limited to one scientific domain and include both natural and anthropogenic causes. The report emphasizes that while climate change is a well-known risk, other existential threats such as nuclear war, engineered pandemics, and artificial intelligence also pose significant dangers. The main focus is on the need for global governance and international collaboration to manage these risks effectively.

Main Viewpoints

• Existential risks are global and intergenerational, requiring coordinated action across nations and research communities.
• Small probabilities of catastrophic events can accumulate, leading to significant risks over time.
• Technological progress brings both opportunities and risks, and managing this progress is a critical geopolitical task.
• International governance is essential for mitigating these risks, especially for technologies like geoengineering and artificial intelligence.
• Scenario planning and research into emerging technologies are necessary to prepare for and reduce the likelihood of these risks.

Key Information

1. Existential Risk Definition

• An existential risk threatens the long-term future of humanity.
• It does not necessarily require the total extinction of humanity, but can lead to a collapse of civilization or irreversible harm to its potential.

2. Leading Existential Risks

2.1 Nuclear War

• The Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings showed the destructive power of nuclear weapons.
• A full-scale nuclear exchange between the US and Russia could cause global cooling (nuclear winter), potentially leading to extinction.
• A regional nuclear war involving 100 weapons could cause starvation for 2 billion people.
• Uncertainty remains about the full effects of large-scale nuclear war, and international collaboration is needed to manage this risk.

2.2 Extreme Climate Change and Geoengineering

• While moderate warming is unlikely to cause extinction, extreme warming (e.g., 6–12°C) could lead to global devastation.
• Solar Radiation Management (SRM) could mitigate climate change but poses its own risks, such as abrupt termination leading to rapid warming.
• SRM could also lead to international tensions and moral hazards, reducing efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
• International governance of geoengineering research is crucial to prevent unintended consequences.

2.3 Engineered Pandemics

• Natural pandemics are unlikely to cause extinction, but engineered pandemics could.
• Advances in biotechnology allow for the creation of highly lethal and infectious pathogens.
• These could be deliberately or accidentally created, leading to massive global casualties.
• Preparedness and international cooperation are necessary to reduce this risk.

2.4 Artificial Intelligence

• A superintelligence could bring about economic, social, and political changes of unprecedented scale.
• It could exacerbate other risks or cause unintended consequences that threaten human flourishing.
• Research and ethical considerations are important in ensuring AI development is safe and beneficial.

2.5 Global Totalitarianism

• The rise of totalitarian regimes could lead to global oppression and reduced governance quality.
• This risk could exacerbate other existential threats.
• International cooperation is vital to prevent the emergence of such regimes.

2.6 Natural Processes

• Natural existential risks include asteroid impacts, super-volcanoes, and Gamma Ray Bursts.
• These are less likely than anthropogenic risks, but still pose a threat.
• Resilience-building and early warning systems are key to managing these risks.

2.7 Unknown Unknowns

• Many current risks were unforeseeable a few decades ago.
• Emerging technologies could introduce new and unpredictable threats.
• Horizon scanning and research into unknown risks are necessary to reduce vulnerability.

Opportunities for Risk Reduction

The report outlines three key opportunities for reducing existential risks:

1. Develop Governance of Geoengineering Research

   • Establish international norms for research and deployment of climate engineering technologies.
   • Ensure safe exploration and mitigation of risks such as abrupt termination.

2. Establish Scenario Plans and Exercises for Severe Engineered Pandemics

   • Plan for low-probability, high-impact scenarios at the international level.
   • Prepare for pathogens that could be more harmful than natural diseases.

3. Build International Attention and Support for Existential Risk Reduction

   • Raise awareness of existential risks among national governments and international organizations.
   • Foster shared political will and international capacity to address these risks.

Conclusion

• Existential risk management is a decisive geopolitical challenge of the 21st century.
• Global collaboration and research investment are essential to reduce these risks.
• The complexity and novelty of existential risks require sustained engagement with the global research community.

Authors and Acknowledgements

• Authors: Sebastian Farquhar, John Halstead, Owen Cotton-Barratt, Stefan Schubert, Haydn Belfield, Andrew Snyder-Beattie
• Acknowledgements: The report benefited from input from over 50 researchers and policy-makers, including experts from Oxford University and the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, which provided funding and support.

References

• The report draws on scientific data, expert opinions, and historical records to assess the likelihood and impact of various existential risks.
• It references climate models, IPCC figures, and biotechnology studies to support its analysis.