2017年-数据局_英国牛津大学：生存风险–外交与治理_34页_1mb

Existential Risk Summary

Core Content

Existential risks are those that threaten the long-term survival of humanity or the potential for its flourishing. These risks are characterized by their high scope and severity, and include threats such as nuclear war, extreme climate change, engineered pandemics, artificial intelligence, global totalitarianism, and natural processes. They are often low probability but high impact, and their management requires international collaboration and sustained research efforts.

Main Risks and Their Characteristics

1.1.1 Nuclear War

• Risk Overview: Nuclear war could lead to catastrophic global cooling (nuclear winter), which may prevent food production for several years.
• Potential Impact: A full-scale nuclear exchange between the US and Russia could result in global temperatures dropping by 8°C, causing severe agricultural disruption.
• Probability: While the probability of an all-out nuclear war is low, regional conflicts involving 100 nuclear weapons could still lead to a nuclear winter and risk billions of lives.
• Uncertainty: The exact effects of a large nuclear war on the global climate remain uncertain, and more research is needed to understand potential outcomes and mitigation strategies.

1.1.2 Extreme Climate Change and Geoengineering

• Risk Overview: While moderate climate change is unlikely to cause extinction, extreme warming (e.g., 6–12°C) could lead to uninhabitable conditions and agricultural collapse.
• Geoengineering as a Solution: Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is a proposed method to rapidly cool the planet by reflecting sunlight.
• Risks of SRM: SRM could have unintended consequences, including abrupt termination leading to rapid warming. It may also create geopolitical tensions and reduce motivation for greenhouse gas mitigation.
• Need for Research: Current climate models are imperfect, and more research is required to understand SRM's effects and ensure its safe deployment.

1.1.3 Engineered Pandemics

• Risk Overview: Engineered pathogens, such as those created through gain-of-function research, could have extremely high fatality rates, global spread, and delayed symptom onset.
• Potential Impact: Such pathogens could lead to mass casualties and destabilize global systems, potentially causing an existential catastrophe.
• Probability: The probability is difficult to estimate, but with advances in biotechnology, the risk is increasing.
• Mitigation: Strengthening global health systems, improving pandemic preparedness, and increasing international collaboration are essential.

1.1.4 Artificial Intelligence

• Risk Overview: A superintelligent AI could bring about unprecedented changes and may pose a significant existential risk.
• Potential Impact: AI could exacerbate other risks, create unintended consequences, or be misused to develop dangerous technologies.
• Probability: There is a significant chance that human-level AI may be developed within the next century, and superintelligence could follow within 30 years.
• Mitigation: Research into safe AI development and addressing technical challenges is crucial to prevent potential disasters.

1.1.5 Global Totalitarianism

• Risk Overview: A global totalitarian regime could reduce the quality of governance and increase the risk of other existential threats.
• Potential Impact: Such a regime could lead to a long-term dystopian future that may be worse than extinction.
• Probability: While not a direct existential risk, the possibility of a dominant totalitarian state is non-negligible.
• Mitigation: Promoting democratic values, improving political representation for future generations, and enhancing global governance structures are important steps.

1.1.6 Natural Processes

• Risk Overview: Natural risks include asteroid impacts, supervolcanoes, and gamma-ray bursts (GRBs).
• Potential Impact: A large asteroid impact or a supervolcano eruption could cause global cooling and widespread devastation.
• Probability: Natural risks are less likely than anthropogenic ones, but they remain significant.
• Mitigation: Building resilience, improving early warning systems, and developing technologies to deflect asteroids are key areas for focus.

1.1.7 Unknown Unknowns

• Risk Overview: Some risks are not yet known or understood, making them particularly difficult to manage.
• Potential Impact: These risks could arise from unforeseen technological developments or natural phenomena.
• Probability: Uncertain, but the potential for unknown unknowns is high given the rapid pace of technological progress.
• Mitigation: Continuous research and monitoring are necessary to identify and address emerging threats.

Key Recommendations

2.1 Develop Governance of Geoengineering Research

• Current Context: There is a lack of international norms and regulations for geoengineering research.
• Proposed Intervention: Establish a global governance framework for Solar Radiation Management (SRM) research.
• Impact: Improved governance could reduce the risk of misuse and ensure safer exploration of climate engineering options.
• Ease of Progress: Moderate, as it requires international cooperation and policy development.

2.2 Establish Scenario Plans and Exercises for Severe Engineered Pandemics

• Current Context: Existing pandemic planning is largely national and focused on modest outbreaks.
• Proposed Intervention: Develop international scenario planning and exercises to prepare for high-impact engineered pandemics.
• Impact: Enhanced preparedness could mitigate the effects of potential global health crises.
• Ease of Progress: Moderate, as it requires coordination across multiple countries and organizations.

2.3 Build International Attention and Support for Existential Risk Reduction

• Current Context: Existential risks are not a priority for many governments and institutions.
• Proposed Intervention: Increase awareness and support through statements, reports, training, and political representation for future generations.
• Impact: Greater international attention could lead to more funding and resources for risk reduction efforts.
• Ease of Progress: High, as it involves advocacy and education rather than technical implementation.
• Next Steps: Engage with policymakers, raise public awareness, and promote the establishment of a dedicated UN Office for Existential Risk Reduction.

Conclusion

Existential risks are a critical concern for the long-term survival of humanity. They require a coordinated global response, including the development of governance frameworks, scenario planning, and increased international attention. The report emphasizes the importance of addressing these risks through research, policy, and cooperation, as they may represent the most significant challenges of the 21st century.