2025-05-13-世界银行-越南宏观监测_2025年4月（英）_6页_288kb

Viet Nam Macroeconomic Summary - April 2025

Overview

Viet Nam's economy showed signs of acceleration in the first quarter of 2025, with real GDP growth reaching 6.9% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in Q1-2024. This improvement was primarily driven by increases in domestic consumption and investment. However, challenges include slowing exports, potential global demand issues, and ongoing trade uncertainties.

GDP and Growth Drivers

• GDP Growth: Accelerated to 6.9% y/y in Q1-2025, supported by strong domestic consumption (+7.4% y/y) and investment (+7.2% y/y).
• Consumption and Investment: Both components saw significant growth, contributing to overall economic expansion, with wage increases boosting consumer purchasing power.

Trade Balance

• Merchandise Exports: Growth slowed to 10.6% y/y in Q1-2025, influenced by high base effects and global demand slowdown. Key products like electronics and phones experienced moderated growth.
• Imports: Increased to 16.9% y/y to support industrial activities, leading to a halving of the trade surplus to $3.2 billion in Q1-2025.
• Trade Trends: Export growth decelerated from 16.8% in the same period last year, reflecting external uncertainties.

Industrial Production and PMI

• Industrial Output: Industrial production rose by 8.6% y/y in March 2025, driven by sectors like apparel, electronics, and machinery.
• PMI: The Manufacturing PMI expanded to 50.5 in March, indicating business expansion amid slight output and order increases, counterbalanced by trade policy uncertainties.

Foreign Direct Investment

• FDI Disbursements: Resilient at $4.9 billion y/y (+7.1% increase), maintaining steady foreign capital inflows despite overall cautiousness.
• New Commitments: Declined by 9.2% y/y due to investor prudence amid global trade shifts, with contributions from countries like Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore shrinking, while China saw a surge.

Domestic Consumption

• Retail Sales: Surged to 10.8% y/y in Q1-2025, the highest in nearly two years, supported by rising average monthly incomes (up 9.5% y/y) and wage growth, enhancing consumer spending.

Prices and Inflation

• Inflation: Headline CPI rose to 3.1% y/y in March, driven by food and housing costs, remaining below the SBV target of 4.5-5%.
• Core Inflation: Held steady at 3.1% y/y, reflecting persistent underlying price pressures.
• Inflation Target: SBV raised the 2025 target to 5% to accommodate economic needs.

Monetary Policy and Exchanges

• Exchange Rate: VND depreciated 3.3% y/y by end-March 2025; SBV raised the central rate gradually and drew down foreign reserves to $78.2 billion, easing market volatility.

Government Finance

• Revenue: Q1-2025 collection reached 36.7% of the annual budget plan, boosted by higher VAT and corporate income taxes.
• Expenditure: Slower than Q1-2024, with public investment disbursement at 9.5% of the plan, below last year's 12.3%, posing challenges for achieving the 8% GDP target.
• Budget Outlook: Government plans to increase investment by 37.7% year-on-year to boost growth, but implementation risks persist due to slow disbursement.

Risks and Outlook

• Increased global trade policy uncertainty could constrain FDI flows and exports.
• Acceleration of public investment approvals and implementation is crucial for meeting the 2025 GDP growth target.