世界银行-越南宏观监测_2025年4月（英）_6页_711kb

报告摘要

GDP Growth: Accelerated to 6.9% y/y in Q1-2025, driven by stronger domestic consumption and investment.
Merchandise Exports: Grew at 10.6% y/y, slower than 16.8% in Q1-2024, due to high base effects and potential global demand slowdown, particularly in electronics and phones; trade surplus halved to $3.2 billion.
Industrial Production: Increased by 8.6% y/y in March 2025, up from 4.8% in March 2024, led by apparel, electronics, and machinery; Manufacturing PMI entered expansion (50.5) after contraction.
Retail Sales: Rose by 10.8% y/y, the highest monthly growth in nearly two years, supported by wage increases.
Inflation: Hit 3.1% y/y in March 2025, marginally higher than February due to food and housing prices, but below the SBV target of 4.5-5% for 2025.
FDI: New commitments fell 9.2% y/y, while disbursements held steady at $4.9 billion (+7.1% y/y), influenced by global trade uncertainty.
Exchange Rate: VND depreciated by 3.3% y/y; the SBV raised the central rate by about 500 VND and supported currency stability.
Revenue: Collection reached 36.7% of annual plan, boosted by VAT and corporate income taxes, while public investment disbursement slowed to 9.5% of plan.

Global trade policy uncertainty may hinder future trade and investment, with FDI new commitments expected to remain cautious.
Public investment approval and implementation are crucial to support the 8% real GDP growth target for 2025.
Wage growth fulfills improved purchasing power, aiding domestic consumption.
Inflation and exchange rate volatility are monitored closely, with potential room for policy adjustments.

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