2025-05-13-世界银行-换挡_私营部门是中东和北非增长的引擎（英）_80页_1mb

Summary of MENA Economic Update: Shifting Gears - The Private Sector as an Engine of Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

Overview

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces a complex economic landscape. While global uncertainty and volatile oil prices cast a shadow on growth prospects, modest acceleration is expected in 2025 and 2026. Conflict-affected economies, such as Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen, continue to grapple with severe economic setbacks. Despite these challenges, the private sector is identified as a potential driver of growth, innovation, and job creation.

Key Findings

Macroeconomic Outlook

• Economic Growth: MENA's average GDP growth in 2024 was 1.9%, with forecasts of 2.6% for 2025 and 3.7% for 2026. Growth in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is expected to outpace other sub-regions.
• Inflation: Inflation has moderated, dropping to 2.4% in 2025 from 2.2% in 2024, but vulnerabilities persist due to global uncertainty and domestic factors.
• Conflict and Fragility: Countries like Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria face severe economic crises, with widespread poverty, destruction of infrastructure, and limited prospects for quick recovery. The 2025 outlook remains precarious in these areas.
• Global Uncertainty: Trade policy fluctuations and geopolitical tensions pose risks to MENA's economic trajectory, potentially dampening growth and increasing instability.

Private Sector Assessment

The private sector in MENA is characterized by low dynamism and productivity growth, particularly in the formal economy. Labor productivity has declined significantly compared to global averages. Investment in physical capital and human resources remains limited, and innovation is stifled due to inadequate R&D spending.

Informality and Gender Gap

• Informal Sector: MENA has a large informal economy accounting for about 40-80% of total employment and 10-30% of GDP. Informality acts as a constraint to growth, with informal firms generally being less productive than formal ones.
• Women’s Participation: Female labor force participation is among the lowest globally, at 18% compared to 49% worldwide. Only 2-3% of firms in MENA have female top managers, though firms led by women tend to hire more women, indicating untapped potential.

External Shocks

MENA's private sector exhibits some resilience to external shocks like conflicts and droughts. Firms adapt by reducing expenditures in conflict scenarios, but effects are more pronounced in economies with weak governance. Governance improvements could enhance this resilience.

Governance and Industrial Policy

• Role of the State: MENA governments intervene extensively through state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which reduce market contestability. Competitive neutrality and data transparency reforms are critical to creating a level playing field.
• Industrial Policy: Industrial policy interventions are widespread but often lack evidence-based design and monitoring. Success requires addressing market failures systematically while avoiding distortions.

Firm-Level Capacity Building

Improving management practices could boost productivity by leveraging human capital effectively. Attracting women leaders and enhancing female labor force participation is another avenue for growth. Diversifying and digitizing firms could further enhance their dynamism.

Conclusions

The MENA private sector holds immense potential for growth and productivity gains. With reforms in governance, data transparency, and evidence-based industrial policies, along with better management practices and greater female inclusion, the region can harness its private sector as a catalyst for sustainable economic development despite ongoing challenges.