【国际能源署IEA】2025全球电力市场报告至2027年的分析与预测_200页_6mb

Summary of IEA Electricity Report 2025-2027

Core Content

The International Energy Agency (IEA) report "Electricity 2025" provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of global electricity demand, supply, and emissions from 2025 to 2027. It highlights the transformative role of electricity in the global economy, driven by electrification, industrial growth, and rising consumption of technologies such as air conditioners, data centres, and electric vehicles.

Main Views

• Electricity Demand Growth:

  • Global electricity consumption is expected to grow at the fastest pace in years, reaching an unprecedented 3500 TWh increase over 2025-2027.
  • Emerging and developing economies, especially China, are the main drivers of this growth, contributing about 85% of the additional demand.
  • China's electricity demand is projected to grow at an average of 6% annually, outpacing its GDP growth.
  • India and Southeast Asian countries are also expected to record strong growth, supported by economic expansion and rising air conditioner ownership.

• Advanced Economies:

  • Despite a 15-year trend of relatively flat or declining electricity demand, advanced economies are expected to see a rise in demand starting in 2025, driven by electric vehicles, air conditioners, data centres, and heat pumps.
  • In the United States, electricity demand is forecast to grow at 2% annually, equivalent to adding California's total electricity demand over three years.
  • The European Union's electricity consumption is expected to recover from recent declines but not return to 2021 levels before 2027.

• Supply and Renewables:

  • Renewable energy sources, particularly solar PV and wind, are expected to dominate electricity generation, meeting about 95% of the global demand growth.
  • Solar PV is set to grow rapidly, accounting for roughly half of the global electricity demand increase by 2027, up from 40% in 2024.
  • Nuclear power is also expected to grow, driven by recovery in France, restarts in Japan, and new reactors in China, India, and Korea.

• Emissions:

  • CO2 emissions from electricity generation are expected to plateau after a 1% increase in 2024, due to the expansion of renewables and the decline in fossil fuel use.
  • Coal's share in the generation mix is expected to fall below 33% for the first time this century, as low-emissions sources expand.
  • China, where over half of global coal-fired generation occurs, remains a key source of uncertainty due to its weather-dependent and economically sensitive generation trends.

• Electricity Prices:

  • Wholesale electricity prices in several regions fell by around 20% in 2024, aligning with global energy commodity price declines.
  • Negative wholesale prices are becoming more common, especially in Europe, the US, and Australia, signaling a need for greater system flexibility.

• Reliability and Security:

  • Extreme weather events are increasingly affecting power systems, leading to disruptions and highlighting the need for enhanced electricity security.
  • Events like Dunkelflaute (periods of low renewable generation) have led to significant price spikes but were managed effectively, showcasing system resilience.
  • Flexibility options such as dispatchable capacity, storage, and demand-side response are essential for maintaining system reliability in the face of weather variability.

Key Information

• China's Role:

  • China is the largest contributor to global electricity demand growth, with its share reaching 54% in 2024.
  • The country's electricity demand is growing faster than GDP due to electrification and industrial expansion.
  • Data centres and 5G networks are expected to double their electricity consumption by 2027, though they currently account for only about 3% of growth.

• Global Trends:

  • Solar PV and wind generation are set to increase significantly, with solar surpassing coal in the EU in 2024.
  • Nuclear power is expected to reach new highs in 2025 and continue growing.
  • The expansion of renewables is expected to reduce fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions.

• Regional Outlook:

  • The report includes detailed regional analyses, covering Asia-Pacific, Americas, Europe, Eurasia, Middle East, and Africa.
  • Africa is lagging in electricity access, with 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still without reliable electricity.

• Policy and Market Developments:

  • The report emphasizes the importance of policy and market reforms to ensure reliability, affordability, and sustainability of electricity supply.
  • Negative prices and Dunkelflaute events are highlighted as signals for the need for more flexible supply and demand mechanisms.

Conclusion

The report underscores the global shift toward an "Age of Electricity" driven by electrification, industrial growth, and the increasing use of data centres and electric vehicles. While renewables and nuclear are expected to meet the majority of new demand, the challenge of ensuring system reliability in the face of weather variability and demand fluctuations remains critical. The report also highlights the importance of policy and market design in supporting this transition and enhancing the resilience of power systems.