2015年-FSB全球金融稳定委员会_Global_Shadow_Banking_Monitoring_Report_2015_62页_1mb

Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2015 Summary

Core Content

The Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2015 provides an in-depth analysis of the shadow banking system, focusing on its size, trends, risks, and interconnectedness across 26 jurisdictions, including Ireland for the first time, and the euro area as a whole. These jurisdictions account for about 80% of global GDP and 90% of global financial system assets. The report introduces a new "economic functions" methodology to better identify shadow banking risks and improve the accuracy of monitoring.

Main Points

1. Shadow Banking Overview

• The shadow banking system refers to credit intermediation involving entities and activities outside the regular banking system.
• It can provide important advantages to the real economy but also poses systemic risks, especially when it performs bank-like functions such as maturity and liquidity transformation, and leverage.
• The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring shadow banking and applying appropriate policy responses to mitigate financial stability risks.

2. Narrow Measure of Shadow Banking

• The narrow measure, based on the economic functions approach, estimates global shadow banking assets at $36 trillion in 2014, equivalent to 59% of GDP of participating jurisdictions and 12% of financial system assets.
• This measure may overestimate the systemic risk potential due to its conservative approach and the inclusion of entities that pose risks in at least some jurisdictions.
• 80% of shadow banking assets are concentrated in a subset of advanced economies in North America, Asia, and northern Europe.
• 60% of the narrow measure consists of credit intermediation associated with collective investment vehicles (e.g., money market funds, hedge funds), which are more prone to runs.
• Securitisation-based credit intermediation, a major contributor to the 2008 financial crisis, has declined in recent years.

3. Broad Measure of Non-Bank Financial Intermediation

• The MUNFI (Measure of Unregulated Non-Bank Financial Intermediation) includes assets of OFIs, pension funds, and insurance companies.
• It grew by 9% to $137 trillion in 2014, representing 40% of total financial system assets in 20 jurisdictions and the euro area.
• In the 20 jurisdictions and the euro area, non-bank financial intermediation (excluding pension funds and insurance companies) increased by $1.6 trillion, reaching $80 trillion.
• This growth is attributed to higher equity valuations and an increase in non-bank credit intermediation, particularly from capital markets.

4. Growth and Distribution

• Non-bank financial intermediation reached 128% of GDP in 2014, up from 122% in 2013 and 103% in 2011.
• Emerging market economies (EMEs) showed the most rapid growth in OFI assets, with 8 EMEs experiencing growth rates above 10%, including two over 30%.
• However, the growth in EMEs is from a relatively small base, raising concerns about potential systemic risks.
• Trust companies, money market funds (MMFs), and fixed income funds showed the most significant growth in 2014.

5. Risks and Interconnectedness

• The report introduces a risk analysis framework based on the five economic functions that may lead to shadow banking risks.
• Liquidity and maturity transformation risks have become a key focus, especially due to the overestimation of liquidity in fixed income markets and the growth of funds with on-demand redemptions investing in less liquid assets.
• Interconnectedness between the banking and non-bank financial system has decreased from its pre-crisis peak, but remains high in some jurisdictions.

Key Methodological Improvements

• The report introduces a new activity-based measure using economic functions to classify non-bank financial entities.
• This approach allows for a more targeted identification of shadow banking risks by focusing on entities involved in maturity transformation, liquidity transformation, and leverage.
• Peer review and supervisory judgment are used to refine the classification of entity types, leading to more consistent and accurate assessments.
• The narrow measure is still a work in progress and may evolve as data availability and understanding improve.

Future Directions

• The monitoring exercise will continue to expand and refine, including more jurisdictions and improving data collection.
• The FSB encourages the development of Flow of Fund statistics and granular data on interconnectedness and risk data.
• Future reports will track both the broad measure (MUNFI) and the narrow measure of shadow banking, with a focus on securities financing data and regional monitoring initiatives.

Conclusion

The 2015 report marks a significant step forward in understanding and monitoring shadow banking risks on a global scale. It highlights the growing importance of non-bank financial intermediation and the need for enhanced data collection, improved policy tools, and greater coordination among jurisdictions to ensure financial stability.